Mr. Weld says both Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama have taken strong but different stands on these issues, and either candidate's stand will have a major economic impact after the election.

"Climate change is a global concern, but its impact on U.S. government policy is an economic one that centers on the degree to which actions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions should be contingent upon specified actions by other major emitting nations (and economic competitors) such as China and India," Mr. Weld states.

"By contrast, dependence on foreign oil is primarily a domestic U.S. political, economic, and national security issue - but how the next president approaches it will have major global impact."

In actions to address climate change, Mr. Weld believes that a President Obama would be more likely to take unilateral action without waiting for China and India. These actions could include commitment to an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and expansion of a "cap and trade" emissions reduction system to cover a higher proportion of the U.S. economy.

By contrast, Mr. Weld sees a President McCain as less likely to take unilateral action without building on numerous political initiatives already undertaken to involve China and India. He also sees a McCain presidency pushing for only a 60 percent reduction in emissions.

"A carbon tax is not likely to become law anytime soon in the United States," Mr. Weld adds. "Members of Congress have only to look to the north, where the Canadian Liberal party's proposal of a tax on emissions was a major factor in their defeat by the Conservatives in the recent national elections."

The presidential candidates also take different directions on energy independence. Mr. Weld anticipates that a President Obama will urge Americans to sacrifice and use less energy.

Obama's campaign has laid great stress on the need for alternative forms of transportation away from automobiles. Tax incentives to reduce fossil fuel energy use and encourage alternative energy sources would also be likely. Senator Obama also supports a "windfall profits" tax on oil companies.

"Renewable energy and conservation do not divide the two presidential candidates," Mr. Weld notes, "though Senator Obama mentions them more often on the stump. Senator McCain has historically opposed a subsidy for ethanol, while Senator Obama might be particularly sensitive to the impact of corn-based ethanol on food supplies and prices. Senator McCain is distinctly friendlier to the expansion of the nuclear power industry, having promised 45 new nuclear plants by 2030."

"On the subject of increasing domestic energy supply," Mr. Weld continues, "there are huge differences between the two Presidential candidates. 'Drill, Baby, Drill' is the mantra of both Senator McCain and Governor Palin. Senator Obama's response is that we cannot drill our way out of dependence on foreign oil. He proposes a 'use or lose' policy for the millions of acres of exploration land controlled by the oil companies; development of solar, wind, thermal, and biodiesel sources; and highly fuel efficient cars."

"Such positions indicate that there's more at stake than usual for American businesses and consumers in this fall's national election," Mr.Weld concludes.

"Depending on which party wins control of the White House and Congress, energy policies could change dramatically. While not every initiative of the new President and Congress is guaranteed to become law, the enormous potential impact of even some of the changes that the candidates are discussing indicates that 2009 could be a watershed year for energy policies that impact the U.S. economy."

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