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Analysis: Showdown in Bucharest

US President George W. Bush attends the NATO Summit meeting on Afghanistan at the Palace of Parliament in Bucharest on April 3, 2008. NATO leaders decided on April 3, 2008 to invite Albania and Croatia to join their military alliance, the organisation's Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said. Photo courtesy AFP.
by Stefan Nicola
Berlin (UPI) April 2, 2008
At the NATO summit Bucharest, Romania, U.S. President George W. Bush will try to finalize his legacy of promoting democracy by heaving Ukraine and Georgia, two former Soviet republics, into the alliance. It will be tough to convince his European allies, however, that expanding NATO eastward is such a good idea.

Bush visited Ukraine on the eve of the summit, thus underscoring that the country, along with Georgia, should be welcomed into a Membership Action Plan that prepares nations for NATO membership.

For Bush, that would be the icing on the cake that he has baked for the past eight years -- it is labeled "democratization." Welcoming Ukraine and Georgia into the MAP would "send a signal to their citizens that if they continue on the path to democracy and reform they will be welcomed into the institutions of Europe. It would send a signal throughout the region that these two nations are, and will remain, sovereign and independent states."

That certainly is a big hint at Russia, which has strongly opposed NATO's eastward expansion -- President Vladimir Putin reportedly even threatened to leave the NATO summit, to which he has also been invited, if Ukraine and Georgia join the MAP.

Bush is also irritating two of his key allies in Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Merkel and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier have given several public statements underlining that they do not back inviting the two former Soviet republics into the alliance just now. For once, they point out that both countries aren't ready yet; on the other hand, they argue that the already fragile relationship the West has with Russia shouldn't be troubled any further.

"Merkel and Steinmeier in very clear words said that NATO shouldn't expand eastward and hassle Russia," Alexander Skiba, trans-Atlantic expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based think tank, told United Press International Wednesday in a telephone interview.

Even Sarkozy, who is the most pro-American president France has had in recent decades, doesn't back the U.S. plan.

"This is where we could see a possible showdown in Bucharest. �� It will be interesting to see whether Bush will be able to convince his French and German allies that his legacy is at stake," Skiba said.

The discussion about NATO's eastward expansion has dwarfed another important issue -- that of security in Afghanistan, where the alliance has some 47,000 troops doing reconstruction and battling the Taliban.

And when it comes to Afghanistan, Bush has also made a turnaround, but one that is pleasing Germany. Contrary to what Washington has preached for months, Bush in an interview with German newspaper Die Welt said he was thankful for Germany's contribution to stability in the northern provinces of Afghanistan, adding he would not call on Berlin to send soldiers into the volatile south.

"I want decisions that our partners are able to support," Bush said. "I want that Chancellor Merkel can live well with these results. In other words, I don't want to ask other states for something they can't bear politically."

Bush knows that some eight in 10 Germans are against sending German troops into battle missions, "and that completely shuts down Germany's political capacity to act in that area."

There have been unconfirmed reports that Germany may expand its reach into the western provinces, where Italy currently has the lead. And behind closed doors Berlin may even be ready to contribute more to fighting the Taliban, Skiba said.

"Chancellor Merkel, senior military officials and some parliamentarians would actually support sending troops to southern Afghanistan, but no one speaks about that on the record," he said.

Just over two months ago U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in an unusually stern letter called on NATO's European allies to send more troops into Afghanistan and join the casualty-heavy fighting in the southern provinces, following up on similar calls by NATO generals.

Germany has some 3,500 soldiers stationed in northern Afghanistan, where they are leading reconstruction and security efforts. It also recently decided to replace a 300-strong Norwegian quick-reaction force that can be deployed all over Afghanistan if needed.

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Outside View: NATO's pointless expansion
Moscow, April 2, 2008
NATO is expected to open its doors to Croatia, Macedonia and Albania at its summit this week in Bucharest, Romania.







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