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OIL AND GAS
U.S. oil sector downturn lifts crude oil prices
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Sep 21, 2015


North Dakota rig count continues decline
Bismarck, N.D. (UPI) Sep 21, 2015 - The number of rigs engaged in exploration and production in North Dakota, the No. 2 oil producer in the nation, is on a steady decline, state data show.

Data from the North Dakota Industrial Commission show 67 rigs employed across the state, down about 3 percent from last week and 65 percent less than this date in 2014. The 196 rigs engaged in exploration and production activity on Sept. 21, 2014, was the highest in three years.

Oil field services company Baker Hughes reported last week the number of rigs deployed across the United States fell 1.2 percent to 644 for the third-straight week of declines.

Low crude oil prices mean energy companies have less capital to invest in exploration and production, a trend reflected in the fewer number of rigs active in U.S. shale basins.

In its latest monthly market report, the NDIC said slumping crude oil prices, along with improved operational efficiency, meant energy companies were running fewer rigs than their planned minimum in the state for 2015.

North Dakota is the No. 2 oil producer. Oil production in June, the last full month for which data are available, was 1.21 million barrels per day, just shy of the record 1.22 million bpd set in December.

In its latest short-term market report, however, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said total crude oil production will decline 4.3 percent from expected full-year 2015 levels to 8.8 million bpd by 2016.

Report finds U.S. energy squeezed by prices
Houston (UPI) Sep 21, 2015 - Low oil prices mean $1.5 trillion in potential investments in the global energy sector, including in North American shale, are in jeopardy, a report finds.

James Webb, director of exploration and production research at Wood Mackenzie, said low oil prices mean forecasts for investment projects through 2016 are down $220 billion from when crude oil was valued at around $100 per barrel. For the United States, that translates to more than 40 projects on hold until the market recovers.

"We estimate that as much as $1.5 trillion of investment spend destined for new and U.S. tight oil projects is now out of the money, or in starker terms, uneconomic at a $50 oil price," he said in a statement.

Oil services company Baker Hughes reported the number of rigs deployed across the United States was 842 for the week ending Sept. 18. That's down six from the previous week and more than 1,000 less than the same week in 2014.

Wood Mackenzie expects spending on new projects will decline by as much as 30 percent as crude oil prices continue their decline. Brent crude oil at $48.27 per barrel is 2.6 percent lower than the start of the month and more than 50 percent below mid-2014 levels.

Webb said operators and service companies like Baker Hughes need to work together to address challenges emerging in the weak oil economy. With a rebound in prices expected before the end of the decade, however, this may be unlikely.

"A prolonged period of low oil prices over a number of years is likely needed to bring about profound, structural changes to industry costs," he said. "This is unlikely -- in our view oil prices will begin to recover from 2017, and there is a real risk that cost inflation pressures then return."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported total crude oil production will decline 4.3 percent from expected full-year 2015 levels to 8.8 million barrels per day by 2016. In its latest market report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said "all eyes" are on how quickly U.S. crude oil production declines.

Industry signs that weak economics may be throttling some developments in the U.S. energy sector lifted crude oil prices in early Monday trading.

Brent crude oil prices gained nearly 2 percent from the previous close to trade at $48.52 per barrel in early Monday trading. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil prices, gained around 2.7 percent to $45.75 per barrel.

Crude oil prices are still down more than 50 percent from last year. Lingering concerns over the strength of the European economy and emerging signs of a slowdown in Asia means demand is weak in an era where U.S. oil production is in part keeping markets weighted heavily on the supply side.

Data from the United States show the low price of crude oil is having a durable impact on the exploration and production side of the energy sector. For the third week in a row, oil services company Baker Hughes reported a decline in the number of rigs operating in the United States. Total rig activity is down by more than 1,000 year-on-year.

A weekend report from analytical firm Wood Mackenzie, meanwhile, said the U.S. oil sector could face further challenges as several major projects are deferred until markets improve.

Monday's rally, however, may be short lived. Despite the slump in rig activity, U.S. drillers are figuring out ways to do more with less. Data last week from the American Petroleum Institute show U.S. crude oil production in August is at its highest level since 1972. The August average of 9.3 million barrels of oil per day is 5.4 percent above last year.

Separate reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries show U.S. oil production starts to decline by 2016.

On the demand side, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development said last week global economic growth was sub-par.

Rig numbers not a strong production indicator
Denver (UPI) Sep 18, 2015 - Even if rig numbers across U.S. shale oil basins hold steady, current economics means production could start to decline, a forecasting unit of Platts reported.

Low crude oil prices, down about 50 percent year-on-year, means energy companies have less capital to invest in exploration and production.

In Texas, the No. 1 oil producer in the nation, the state energy regulator said the 864 drilling permits awarded in August was 64 percent lower year-on-year. The rig count in North Dakota, the No. 2 oil producer, of 67 is 66 percent lower than this date in 2014.

Sami Yahya, an analyst with Bentek, the forecasting unit for Platts, said energy companies are figuring out ways to save money by either drilling en masse are through deferments.

"While the U.S. is able to drill more wells now with fewer rigs, some producers are opting to defer completing their wells until better economic conditions are present," he said in an emailed report. "In other words, production could begin to decline even if rig activity and number of drilled wells remain steady. This is a crucial risk to current production numbers."

In the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas, one of the state's most lucrative fields, Bentek finds oil production increasing by about 1 percent on average each month. North Dakota reported a recent decline in oil production, though the 6,000 barrel per day drop from July to August is less than 1 percent of overall output.

In its latest short-term market report, however, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said total crude oil production will decline 4.3 percent from expected full-year 2015 levels to 8.8 million barrels per day by 2016.


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