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TRADE WARS
US officials to meet Xi as trade talks near end
By Ryan MCMORROW
Beijing (AFP) Feb 15, 2019

China's trade surplus with US narrows in January
Beijing (AFP) Feb 14, 2019 - China's trade surplus with the US narrowed in January even as its American imports continued to plunge, official data released on Thursday showed, as officials from the world's top two economies sat down for crucial trade talks in Beijing.

China's exports across the Pacific fell more than 2 percent in January from a year earlier, data from the customs administration showed, after shrinking in December.

Still China's trade surplus with the US for the month stood at $27.3 billion. Last year it hit a record $323.3 billion.

It is a major source of anger within the Trump administration, which imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods last year and has threatened more to come.

Officials from the world's top two economies are holding negotiations in Beijing on Thursday and Friday in a bid to resolve their thorny trade dispute.

Trump in December postponed plans to sharply hike tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports until March 1 to allow more time for negotiations. This week he indicated he was open to extending the trade truce depending on progress in Beijing.

"Based on the positive signals from the US-China trade negotiations, further tariff hikes will likely be suspended," noted Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics, adding he expected continued pressure on exports due to a global slowdown and the existing US tariffs.

-Global trade-

China's exports to the world -- all countries including the US -- unexpectedly rose 9.1 percent in January from a year earlier, turning a corner after exports fell in December.

"One possible explanation for January's upbeat export data could be some re-arrangement of regional supply chains on the back of the ongoing China-US trade dispute," said Betty Wang, an economist at ANZ bank.

Exports to Europe and ASEAN countries surged, she wrote in the research note.

China's imports, however, continued to fall in January, down 1.5 percent from a year earlier, though at a slower pace than a 10.2 percent decline forecast by Bloomberg News.

"The import slowdown in recent months obviously in part reflects the slowdown in China's domestic economy," said Kuijs.

A slew of bad economic data has added to concerns about China's economy, which grew at its slowest pace in almost three decades last year.

Analysts cautioned that it is difficult to compare trends at the start of each year due to the Chinese New Year holiday, which came in early February this year and can affect business activity.

"The broad trend in shipments still appears to be pointing down," said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics.

"The downbeat outlook for global growth means that this year is likely to be challenging for Chinese exporters, even if the ongoing US-China trade negotiations culminate in a deal," Evans-Pritchard wrote in a research note.

Top US economic officials were to meet on Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping as the sides aim to wrap up trade talks in Beijing with enough goodwill to extend a truce in their tariff war.

The world's two biggest economies are seeking an accord to bridge their deep trade differences, after President Donald Trump set a March 1 deadline beyond which he would rescind a freeze on tariff hikes.

But Trump has since suggested he may extend that ultimatum, with Bloomberg News reporting he could push it back an additional 60 days.

Trump's economic advisor Larry Kudlow confirmed that the American delegation to Beijing would meet with Xi, calling the leader's presence a "very good sign".

"They're covering all the ground. They're hard at it," Kudlow said of the delegation led by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Kudlow added that "the vibe is good," though there'd been "no decision" yet on extending the tariff truce.

But multiple reports said there had been little progress on thorny issues such as US demands that China crack down on forced technology transfers and reduce subsidies that favour domestic companies.

The Wall Street Journal said China had offered to boost imports of US goods with promises of major purchases of semiconductors and other items, but that officials "remained deadlocked on a number of issues".

Bloomberg News reported that the two sides had "failed to narrow the gap around structural reforms to China's economy that the US has requested".

Both cited anonymous sources.

The US officials left their hotel for Friday's talks without making substantive comment.

The United States accuses China of a slew of unfair trading practices, including systemic theft of US intellectual property, and wants deep reforms to the system.

Beijing and Washington have already imposed duties on more than $360 billion in two-way trade, weighing on their manufacturing sectors and shaking global financial markets.

Trump had said this week he was open to extending the deadline to give time for more negotiations and he says he will meet with Xi to finalise any deal.

In December he postponed plans to sharply hike tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to allow more time for negotiation.

Expectations for a trade deal have grown as China faces pressure from slowing economic growth, and as swooning global markets pose a challenge to Trump and his economic advisors.

Data released Thursday in China showed its trade surplus with the US -- a major source of anger within the Trump administration -- narrowed in January to $27.3 billion, even as its American imports plunged 41 percent for the month from a year earlier.

The two sides said major progress was made in talks last month in Washington, but a wide gulf remains.

Beijing has offered to boost its purchases of US goods but is widely expected to resist calls for major change to its policies.

US and China seek deal to prevent trade-war escalation
Beijing (AFP) Feb 14, 2019 - US and Chinese negotiators on Thursday kicked off two days of high-level talks that President Donald Trump says could decide whether he escalates the bruising tariff battle between the world's two biggest economies.

Trump indicated this week he was open to extending a trade truce beyond March 1 depending on progress in Beijing. He is considering pushing the deadline back an additional 60 days, Bloomberg News reported, citing sources.

In December he postponed plans to sharply hike tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports to allow more time for negotiation.

The two economic superpowers have already imposed duties on more than $360 billion in two-way trade, which has weighed on their manufacturing sectors and shaken global financial markets.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are meeting with China's top economic czar Liu He, seeking to build on progress made in Washington last month.

We are "looking forward to discussions today", Mnuchin said as he left his hotel Thursday morning for the talks.

Expectations for a trade deal have grown as China faces pressure from slowing economic growth, and as swooning global markets pose a challenge to Trump and his economic advisors.

Data released Thursday in China showed its trade surplus with the US -- a major source of anger within the Trump administration -- narrowed in January to $27.3 billion, even as its American imports plunged 41 percent for the month from a year earlier.

Last year the surplus hit a record $323.3 billion.

China's total imports also sank for the month, pointing to weak demand amid slowing economic growth.

- Trump-Xi meeting -

Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to meet with the US officials in Beijing this week, a report in the South China Morning Post said Wednesday, bolstering hopes for the talks and world markets.

Trump also has said he expects to meet with Xi "at some point" to clinch a trade deal.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday that preliminary talks in Beijing were "going along very well," Bloomberg reported.

"They're showing us tremendous respect," he added.

"Markets will continue to watch -- and react -- closely to the ups and downs of the negotiations," said Trey McArver of Trivium Research.

"But Sino-US relations are all about the two leaders, and it will ultimately be up to Xi and Trump to come to a deal -- or not," he wrote Wednesday in a newsletter.

The two sides said major progress was made in talks last month in Washington, but a wide gulf remains on some issues.

The US is demanding far-reaching changes to Chinese practices that it says are unfair, including theft of US technology and intellectual property, and myriad barriers that foreign companies face in the Chinese domestic market.

Beijing has offered to boost its purchases of US goods but is widely expected to resist calls for major changes to its industrial policies such as slashing government subsidies.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Sunday of a possible global economic "storm" as world growth forecasts dip, citing the US-China trade row as a key pivot point.


Related Links
Global Trade News


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