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UN nuclear watchdog to visit Iran: diplomats
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) Jan 13, 2012

Iran nuclear drive could spark arms race: Hague
London (AFP) Jan 15, 2012 - British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Sunday warned that Iran's nuclear programme could spark a Middle East arms race, and that all options to deal with the threat were being considered.

In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, Hague called on the Iranian regime to enter negotiations or face tougher sanctions.

European governments are moving closer to an agreement on an Iranian oil embargo that would give companies six months to phase out contracts with Tehran.

"We do have to confront this problem, because Iran has embarked on a course which threatens the whole region of the Middle East with nuclear proliferation," Hague told the Telegraph.

"It is an intensifying problem that we have over their nuclear programme," he added. "And so there is a risk that this will become a greater crisis as 2012 goes on."

Iran insists its nuclear programme is for exclusively peaceful purposes.

But most Western countries believe it masks a drive to develop nuclear weapons -- a suspicion strengthened though not confirmed by a November report by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Hague vowed "stronger and stronger" sanctions until Iran agreed to negotiate but cautioned against becoming "starry-eyed" about the effectiveness of economic restrictions.

The minister said Britain was not contemplating imminent military action against Iran, but stressed it would not "take any options off the table in the long term."


A high-level UN nuclear agency delegation will visit Iran late this month to try to clear up claims of covert weapons activities, diplomats said Friday.

The trip led by International Atomic Energy Agency chief inspector Herman Nackaerts and the agency's number two Rafael Grossi would last from January 28 through the first week of February, one Western diplomat told AFP.

Another envoy also said the visit -- two months after an IAEA report on Iran took suspicions to a new level that Tehran is developing nuclear weapons -- would "likely" be from January 28, although it was not yet definite.

There was also some "ambiguity" on whether the delegation would merely hold talks with Iranian officials or be able to visit sites covered in the IAEA's damning November 8 report, the second diplomat said.

"It may be that the Iranians just want a short discussion in Tehran, which would not be what the IAEA is looking for," the envoy told AFP on condition of anonymity.

An IAEA spokesman declined to comment.

The delegation would include alongside the Belgian Nakaerts and the Argentine Grossi -- who is IAEA head Yukiya Amano's chief of staff -- the body's senior legal official Peri Lynne Johnson, a US citizen, envoys said.

"The aim of this mission is to try to get answers once and for all to all the questions raised by the IAEA's report in November," the first diplomat told AFP, without wishing to be identified.

Iran's ambassador to the agency, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, told AFP late Friday that the details of the visit were still being worked out and that he hoped they would be "finalised" early next week.

"The visit will be made. We are in the final planning," he said, declining to comment on any details, including the timing of the trip, who would go, or whom or what the delegation would see.

Iran denies seeking atomic weapons, saying its programme is peaceful, but Western countries strongly suspect otherwise and the UN Security Council has slapped four rounds of sanctions on the Islamic republic.

Ali Larijani, the influential speaker of Iran's parliament, said Thursday during a visit to Turkey that his country stood ready for negotiations with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany.

In its November report, rejected as "baseless" by Iran, the IAEA had said it was able to build an overall impression that Tehran "carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."

Since the report, Western countries have sought to increase pressure on Iran, with Washington and Brussels taking aim at Iran's oil industry and central bank, while pressing Japan, China and others to join them.

Iran, where a judge on Monday reportedly sentenced to death a US-Iranian former Marine for "membership of the CIA", has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20 percent of the world's oil.

Also on Monday the IAEA said that Iran had starting enriching uranium to purities approaching that needed for a nuclear weapon inside a mountain bunker at Fordo near the holy city of Qom.

This was a "very significant step", Oliver Thraenert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin told AFP, saying he was not optimistic that the upcoming IAEA visit would achieve much.

"We are already in a confrontation between the West ... and Iran, with more and more escalation going on on both sides," he told AFP. "The Iranians are becoming much more nervous, this is obvious."

Iran says the 20-percent enriched uranium is for medical purposes but Washington called the start of operations at Fordo "a further escalation of their ongoing violations with regard to their nuclear obligations."

On Wednesday Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a deputy director of Iran's main uranium enrichment plant, died in a car bomb blast that Tehran blamed on the US and Israel, the third scientists to meet such a fate in the past two years.

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West out of options on Iran stand-off
Paris (AFP) Jan 13, 2012 - Western powers were drawing up plans Friday for tougher sanctions on Iran, despite the reluctance of Russia and Asia to take part, diplomatic pressure having failed to halt Tehran's nuclear drive.

"We have no other tools. The only alternative would be to make concessions, and we're not ready to do that," said a senior French official, ruling out the option of military strikes pushed by some hawks in Washington and Israel.

Iran revived its nuclear programme in 2005, and the West has been trying to halt it ever since, alternating offers of talks with threats of isolation and slowly toughening up an array of unilateral and international sanctions.

The Iranian programme, which the West believes is designed to produce a nuclear weapon, has also been hit with a series of assassinations of its scientists and cyber-attacks on its computers.

But Tehran -- which insists it is merely seeking to generate nuclear power and develop medical isotopes -- has ploughed on defiantly, ratcheting up its enrichment of uranium from 3.5 percent, through 4.8 to 20 percent.

"There is no plausible justification for this production," US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said this week, urging Tehran to "immediately cease uranium enrichment and to comply with its international nuclear obligations."

Once uranium is enriched to 90 percent it can be used to make an atomic bomb. Iran has moved some of its enrichment into an underground site, where it hopes it would be protected from eventual US or Israeli air strikes.

In parallel it has stepped up its ballistic missile programme, which could one day be ready to carry a nuclear warhead, and threats to disrupt oil shipping in the strategic sea lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.

The United Nations has agreed four packages of international sanctions in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2010. Britain and the United States have recently also imposed tougher financial and trade sanctions of their own.

Now the European Union is on the point of stepping up its action, but Russia, China and Japan have been less enthusiastic. Asia's energy-hungry powers fear soaring prices if Iranian oil is embargoed.

Japan initially appeared willing to back its traditional Western allies, but on Friday began to backtrack, with Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba saying: "We must look at this extremely carefully."

Russia warned Friday that any oil embargo would be seen as an attempt to force regime change in Iran, rather than as a bid to halt enrichment.

European diplomatic officials insist new sanctions would be aimed at forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table, even if they privately admit that they have so far failed to make any progress in this direction.

Citing Iran's decision to begin underground enrichment in a bunker complex in Fordo, south of Tehran, one European official said: "The Iranians have shifted to a policy of protecting their nuclear programme."

Nevertheless, officials insist that sanctions have had some effect.

"Iran wanted 50,000 centrifuges. They've only got 8,000 and only 6,300 in working order," said one, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Iranian oil production is dropping, while it's going up everywhere else," another diplomat added, claiming financial sanctions have hit Iran's ability to insure oil cargoes and pushed its oil export price up 25 percent.

But the recession-hit West no longer dominates international relations like it did at the start of the crisis in 2005. Rising economic powers also have a role to play, and will defend their interests.



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