President Donald Trump determines the fate of the landmark Iran nuclear deal Tuesday, announcing his verdict on US sanctions relief underpinning the international accord, which he has repeatedly and harshly criticized.

Officials and diplomats expect the pugnacious US leader to ignore last-ditch European pleas and move to withdraw the United States from a 2015 agreement, which he insists was "very badly negotiated."

Trump has unsuccessfully demanded changes to the Obama-era deal, which saw Iran mothball a suspected nuclear weapons program in return for massive sanctions relief.

Months of intensive talks between the United States and European allies now appear deadlocked, with Berlin, London and Paris refusing to rewrite the agreement.

The president tweeted he would announce his decision at 2:00 pm (1800 GMT), even as British foreign secretary Boris Johnson shuttled around Washington trying to reach a last-gasp breakthrough.

One European diplomat echoed the mood around foreign embassies in Washington, saying "there is plainly a difference of opinion," acknowledging that Trump seems poised to walk away from the accord.

Concretely, the US president will decide whether to continue to waive sanctions on Iran's central bank and its oil sector dealings, a key pillar of the agreement.

"I would like to pretend to you today that I feel that there is a chance of the existing (deal) remaining intact," the European official said. "I think that that chance may exist but it is very small."

A French official said President Emmanuel Macron left the United States last week after a similar diplomatic offensive "convinced that we would get a negative decision."

Trump's decision to scrap sanctions relief would have global ramifications, straining Iran's already crisis-racked economy, heightening tensions in the Middle East and laying bare the biggest transatlantic rift since the Iraq War.

The Iranian rial had lost around a third of its value in six months, before authorities in April took the drastic step of pegging the exchange rate to the dollar.

- Danger of 'escalation' -

Trump could also decide to stop waivers for a thicket of other sanctions against Iran, effectively ending US participation in the deal and putting European companies at risk of sanction.

His decision will be closely watched across the Middle East, where a number of powers are mulling their own nuclear programs, and in Pyongyang ahead of non-proliferation talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un.

Tehran has sent mixed signals about its potential response, hinting it could leave a fatally undermined deal and return to military scale uranium enrichment.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said his country would stay in the agreement even if the United States pulls out, but it is unclear whether Iran's more hardline military leaders, or Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, hold the same view.

The United States does not allege that Iran is breaking the terms of the agreement, but says the accord itself does not permanently end Tehran's controversial nuclear programs, stop missile tests or end bellicose Iranian activity in the region.

Since his days as a presidential candidate, Trump has vowed to scrap the deal, but has until now stopped short, amid fierce debate inside his administration.

He has complained, in particular, that Iran gets sanctions relief up front but could return to controversial activities once restrictions "sunset" in 2025.

His administration has also been angered by Iran's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in Syria's civil war and Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen.

With the arrival of John Bolton as National Security Advisor and Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, the Iran hawks now appear to be in the driver's seat.

But European powers are skeptical that Trump's administration has a backup plan to restrain Iranian ambitions once he has made good on his campaign promise to tear up the deal.

Britain's Johnson, who was in Washington to lobby Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence, told Fox News: "Plan B does not seem to be, to me, particularly well-developed at this stage."

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned the accord's collapse could spark "an escalation" in the region and stressed that Washington's European allies think the deal "makes the world a safer place."

With nuclear deal threats, US seeks more curbs on Iran
Washington (AFP) May 8, 2018 - By threatening to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, the United States wants to halt Iran's ballistic missile program and its growing influence in the Middle East.

European leaders will be under pressure from President Donald Trump, who will announce his decision on the future of the deal on Tuesday, to renegotiate a broader agreement addressing those points.

But Tehran is refusing to change a single comma of the deal it signed in July 2015, which lifted international sanctions in return for restrictions on its nuclear program.

- Sunset clause -

The deal curbs the Iranian nuclear program for a period of at least 10 years.

The number of centrifuges used for research and development is limited until 2025, uranium enrichment is limited until 2030, and inspections by nuclear experts will go on until 2040.

But Washington wants to extend these restrictions, arguing that current measures only kick the problem down the road.

And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that Tehran is secretly continuing to develop its military nuclear capabilities.

"It's totally unrealistic to believe that Iran will accept perpetual limits on its sovereignty," said the International Crisis Group (ICG) in a recent report on the issue, quoting an anonymous French official.

Dalia Dassa Kaye, a Middle East specialist at the Rand Corporation, said that while "Iran would be unlikely to agree to new sunset provisions," it may yet "be convinced to engage in preliminary discussions if European powers present an attractive economic package as a counter to the United States."

Tehran, facing a tough financial crisis, is still waiting to feel major economic benefits from the deal.

- Ballistic program -

Washington wants to tackle Iran's ballistic missile program, which it deems harmful to security and stability in the Middle East.

The United Nations has warned Tehran against developing a missile that could carry a nuclear warhead. Israel, which is within range of Iran's missiles, considers this an existential threat.

Iran, which sees itself surrounded by US military bases and the arsenals of its neighbors, says the ballistic missile program is purely defensive and will not be used for weapons of mass destruction.

It does not see its missiles as part of the nuclear deal and considers the issue to be non-negotiable.

"The Iranians view their ballistic missiles as a critical element for their national defense, so this may be one of the most difficult areas to push for limits," said Kaye.

She said if the nuclear deal does not collapse, "missile discussions will need to focus on confidence building steps, like limiting missile ranges and testing."

- Iranian influence -

Iranian influence in the region is at the heart of US concerns. Washington has reiterated that Iran's "hegemonic" ambitions in the Middle East violate the spirit of the 2015 deal, and has denounced Tehran as a destabilizing force.

It has slammed Tehran's "material and financial support" for "terrorism and extremism," citing its backing of the Lebanese military and political organization Hezbollah.

In Syria, where Tehran supports President Bashar al-Assad, Iran says it is working to counter jihadists from the Islamic State group, while in Yemen, it backs Huthi rebels fighting one of its main regional rivals, Saudi Arabia.

UN experts have accused Iran of violating a Yemen arms embargo by allowing the Huthis to obtain drones and ballistic missiles to strike at Saudi Arabia.

Iran also backs Shiite militia forces in Iraq, and sees itself as the focus of "resistance" against Israel, the Middle East's sole if unacknowledged possessor of nuclear arms.

The ICG says Iran has long pursued a policy of using proxies in weakened states to fight its battles against its foes -- Hezbollah in Lebanon to fight Israel, militias in Iraq to fight US forces and the Huthis in Yemen against Saudi Arabia.

"As long as Iran pursues a policy in the region that, however defensive in origin it may be, others view as aggressive, tensions will persist and the possibility will rise of direct military confrontation," the think-tank's report said.

Noting how Iraqi nationalism pushed back against Iranian influence there, Kaye added: "Containing Iranian influence in the region will not be easy, but Iran also is not invincible."

In Syria, Russia may be the best hope of limiting Iranian influence, at least in the south, to avoid an escalation in the conflict with Israel.

As for Yemen, Kaye said the best way of curbing Iranian influence remained a political settlement to the conflict and an end to Saudi intervention.

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Iran envoy to UK warns it may scrap nuclear deal if US withdraws
London (AFP) May 2, 2018
Iran's ambassador to Britain said Tehran will consider walking away from the nuclear deal if the United States withdraws from the agreement, in an interview aired Wednesday. Hamid Baeidinejad, the country's top envoy in London, said Iran would "be ready to go back to the previous situation" if America pulls out of the 2015 pact, as threatened by US President Donald Trump. "When the United States is out of the deal, it means that there is no deal left," he told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. "Bec ... read more