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Trump-era trade stress leads Western powers to China

Trump-era trade stress leads Western powers to China

By Katie Forster and Julien Girault
Tokyo (AFP) Jan 29, 2026

Britain's Keir Starmer is the latest Western leader to thaw trade ties with China in a shift analysts say is driven by US tariff pressure and unease over Donald Trump's volatile policy playbook.

The prime minister's Beijing visit this week to promote "pragmatic" co-operation comes on the heels of advances from the leaders of Canada, Ireland, France and Finland.

Most were making the trip for the first time in years to refresh their partnership with the world's second-largest economy.

"There is a veritable race among European heads of government to meet with (Chinese President) Xi Jinping," Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, told AFP.

This is "driven by internal rivalry to secure investments and market access before the China-US summits in February and April", he said.

It's not just China looking more appealing these days: on Tuesday, India and the European Union announced a huge trade pact two decades in the making, a move to open new markets in the face of a strained status quo.

Vietnam and the European Union also on Thursday committed to deeper cooperation on trade, technology and security.

India and other emerging markets such as South America "are too small to sustain the world's most export-dependent economies, which are in Europe", Lee-Makiyama said.

So they have no choice but to turn to Beijing -- despite concern over its human rights record, and accusations of economic coercion.

"Half of economic growth is generated by either the United States or China," Lee-Makiyama said, adding that "the United States is hardly opening up".

- 'No longer reliable' -

Trump's unpredictable tariff onslaught signals that "the United States is no longer a reliable trading partner", said William Alan Reinsch at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

For the new EU-India Free Trade Agreement, "you can argue that, ironically, Trump's policies have pushed it across the finish line" 20 years since negotiations began, Reinsch told AFP.

Starmer told Xi on Thursday it was "vital" to develop the two countries' relationship, with the Chinese leader also stressing the need for stronger ties in the face of geopolitical headwinds.

London and Beijing enjoyed what they described as a "Golden Era" a decade ago but relations deteriorated from 2020 when Beijing imposed a national security law on Hong Kong.

Nonetheless, China remains Britain's third-largest trading partner, and Starmer's centre-left government is keen to boost UK economic growth.

While the European Union also wants stronger ties with China, it is alarmed by the current trade imbalance, with a gaping deficit of more than $350 billion to Brussels's disadvantage.

Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin urged "open trade" in his talks with Xi in early January, while France's Emmanuel Macron denounced the trade imbalance on a visit to Beijing in December.

- More Trump threats -

China and India are also seeking ways to cope with Trump's tariffs designed to boost US manufacturing and "make America great again".

"A select few countries should not have privileges based on self-interest, and the world cannot revert to the law of the jungle where the strong prey on the weak," Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said at the World Economic Forum this month.

In some cases, Trump has retaliated with more tariff threats, including a new 100 percent levy on all Canadian goods if the US neighbour makes a trade deal with China.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed a "new strategic partnership" with China in Beijing this month, touting a "preliminary but landmark trade agreement" to reduce tariffs.

Under the deal, China, which used to be Canada's largest market for canola seed, is expected to reduce tariffs on the products to around 15 percent, down from the current 84 percent.

In return, Canada will import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles under a preferential tariff rate.

Carney's visit "signalled a fundamentally new approach to how Ottawa intends to navigate a more fragmented, contested and uncertain world", wrote Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at APF Canada.

But she warned it could risk being misinterpreted as "a softening of Canada's assessment of the national and economic security challenges China poses".

Reinsch at the CSIS predicted that the latest agreements would leave the United States at a disadvantage in the long run, while noting they were "surprisingly traditional".

Negotiations on lower tariffs and reducing non-tariff barriers are "exactly what the world has been doing for the past 75 years", he said.

"The outlier is the United States."

Starmer heads to China to defend 'pragmatic' partnership
London (AFP) Jan 27, 2026 - Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday begins a three-day visit to China where he will defend Britain's "pragmatic" partnership with the Asian giant after years of fraught relations.

It will be the first visit by a UK prime minister since Conservative Theresa May in 2018. Starmer will also make a brief stop in Japan to meet with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Starmer's visit comes after recent trips by Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and France's President Emmanuel Macron.

For Chinese President Xi Jinping, it will be an opportunity to show Beijing can be a reliable partner, at a time when President Donald Trump has rattled historic ties between the United States and its Western allies.

Starmer, who is battling record low popularity polls and hopes the visit can boost Britain's beleagured economy, is to arrive in Beijing around 0930 GMT on Wednesday.

The official program will begin on Thursday, with a meeting at the People's Palace with Zhao Leji, the third-ranking government official and chairman of the National People's Congress.

It will be followed by a lunch with Xi and then a meeting with Premier Li Qiang.

The talks will touch upon "trade, investment and national security," Downing Street said in a statement, with Starmer promising "stability and clarity in the government's approach."

Starmer said he aims to promote "pragmatic, consistent co-operation", according to the Downing Street statement, adding that he regrets the "inconsistency" of the previous Conservative government's approach to China.

On its side, China "is willing to take this visit as an opportunity to enhance political mutual trust," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said ahead of the trip.

For Beijing, the visit "marks as another success in its strings of diplomatic efforts in normalising relationship with the US's allies," noted Yu Jie, senior research fellow at policy think tank Chatham House.

Faced with the mercurial diplomacy of Trump, who is threatening Canada with tariffs for signing a trade agreement with China and attempting to create a new international institution with his "Board of Peace", Beijing has also been affirming its support for the UN.

- Jimmy Lai -

UK-China relations plummeted in 2020 after Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong, which severely curtailed freedoms in the former British colony.

They soured further with both powers exchanging accusations of spying.

Since coming to power in 2024, Starmer has been at pains to reset ties with the world's second-largest economy and Britain's third-biggest trade partner.

He will be accompanied to China with some 60 business leaders from the finance, pharmaceutical, automobile and other sectors, and cultural representatives.

"As one of the world's biggest economic players, a strategic and consistent relationship with them is firmly in our national interest," insisted Starmer.

Several senior ministers, including the finance and energy ministers, have also made separate visits to China recently.

The Labour leader also spoke to Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024.

"That does not mean turning a blind eye to the challenges they pose -- but engaging even where we disagree," added Starmer, who has been accused by the Conservative opposition of being too soft in his approach to Beijing.

Those accusations will shadow his visit as he tries to strike a balance between attracting vital investment and appearing firm on national security concerns.

He is expected to raise the case of Hong Kong media mogul and democracy supporter Jimmy Lai, 78, a British national facing years in prison after being found guilty of collusion charges in December.

In a letter addressed to Starmer, Reporters Without Borders urged the leader to secure Lai's release during his visit.

The UK government has also faced fierce domestic opposition after it approved this month contentious plans for a new Chinese mega-embassy in central London.

At the end of last year, Starmer acknowledged that China posed a "national security threat" to the UK, drawing flak from Chinese officials.

The countries also disagree on key issues, such as China's close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin amid the war in Ukraine, and accusations of human rights abuses in China.

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