Lessons learned from Russia's war in Ukraine about how rapidly developing drones can outfox traditional heavy weaponry suggest that Lai Ching-te will boost Taiwan's production of modern military technology after he takes over as president on Monday.
"Taiwan is taking the Chinese military threat more seriously," said Raymond Kuo, Taiwan Policy Initiative director at RAND Corporation.
"It has ramped up its production of anti-ship missiles, tested new anti-air missiles, and is on track to manufacture several thousand military drones," he said.
"I would expect those efforts to continue (under Lai) alongside purchases of US equipment and development of large platforms like the indigenous submarine."
Lai, a vocal supporter of preserving the island's sovereignty, swept to power in January elections despite warnings from Beijing that he would bring "war and decline" to Taiwan.
Beijing has vowed to eventually take control of Taiwan, by force if necessary.
Lai's victory secured an unprecedented third term for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which rejects China's claim to Taiwan.
Lai will succeed Tsai Ing-wen, who angered Beijing during her eight years in power by boosting military spending, developing Taiwan-made equipment such as submarines and ships, and strengthening ties with the United States.
Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but it has remained Taiwan's most important partner and biggest arms supplier.
- 'Light, agile and lethal' -
Beijing maintains a near-daily presence of fighter jets, drones and naval ships around the island in what experts call "grey zone" actions -- tactics that fall short of an act of war.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asked Beijing during a visit to China in April to avoid "provocative" measures during Lai's inauguration on Monday.
Taiwan authorities have detected dozens of Chinese aircraft near the island in recent days.
Beijing, which regards Lai as a "dangerous separatist", is expected to intensify that military pressure in the coming years, underscoring the security challenges facing his administration.
"This reality means that a key measure of success of the Lai administration will be how far he can push forward the necessary reforms to improve Taiwan's ability to defend itself and deter Chinese aggression," Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group (ICG) told AFP.
Washington approved a huge military aid package for Taipei last month in the face of an increasingly assertive China, including $1.9 billion for replenishing its military equipment and training.
Another $2 billion will used for "foreign military financing" for countries in the region.
Taiwan is under pressure to increase its own defence spending and adopt a "porcupine" strategy to deter an attack from China, said Richard Hu, a military expert at National Chengchi University.
"With lessons learned from the Russian-Ukraine war, the defence ministry will try to switch from buying expensive and heavy weapons systems to some light, agile and lethal arms and equipment, such as battle-tested UAVs (drones) and Javelin missiles," Hu said.
Lai has appointed National Security Council chief Wellington Koo, a lawyer with no military rank, to head the defence ministry and oversee the transformation, but there has been pushback, said Hsiao.
"Not everyone in the relevant government agencies is convinced of this strategy," Hsiao added.
- 'Xi is deadly serious' -
The rift between China and Taiwan dates back to China's civil war, which erupted in 1927 between communist and nationalist forces.
Defeated by Mao Zedong's communists, the nationalist KMT of Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan in 1949 and claimed rulership of all of China -- just as the mainland claimed Taiwan.
Chinese military pressure on Taiwan escalated during Tsai's presidency, with Beijing holding its largest military drills around the island in 2023.
However, Taiwan has seen a shift in China's actions in recent months.
Aerial incursions have decreased but Taiwan's outlying island of Kinmen has seen a pick-up in regular patrols by Chinese coast guard and other vessels.
"China's use of grey zone tactics is shifting from military brinkmanship to more law enforcement," political scientist Wen-ti Sung said.
That may "involve more direct contact between civilian personnel from both sides and carry more complicated potential for political escalation".
China's goal of eventually seizing Taiwan remained the same, said Steve Tsang, director of London-based SOAS China Institute.
"(President Xi Jinping) is deadly serious about taking Taiwan and is building up the capacity to do so," Tsang said.
"Taipei, the US and others concerned must use the time to work to pre-empt or deter a Chinese attack."
Paraguay leader to attend Taiwan inauguration
Asuncion (AFP) May 16, 2024 -
Paraguay's President Santiago Pena will attend the inauguration of Taiwan's new leader, a high-ranking government official said Thursday, making him the first head of state to confirm his presence at the ceremony.
Pena is on an official trip to Washington this week, and will leave for Taipei on Saturday, the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP.
Lai Ching-te will be sworn-in as Taiwan's new president on Monday, against a backdrop of increasing pressure from neighboring China, which claims the island as part of its territory.
Beijing has said it will not rule out using force to bring the island under Chinese control.
Several countries, including the United States and Canada, are sending delegations to the inauguration.
Paraguay is the only South American country that maintains diplomatic ties with Taiwan and not with China.
It is one of only 13 countries in the world to do so.
Pena, who took office in August, this week reiterated his support for the foreign policy of the United States, Israel and Taiwan.
Zelensky visits Kharkiv amid 'extremely difficult' attacks, says situation under control
Washington DC (UPI) May 16, 2024 -
President Volodymyr Zelensky Thursday visited Kharkiv as intense Russian attacks raged on Ukraine's second-largest city, thanking defenders wounded trying to repel Russian invaders.
He held a meeting of Ukraine's Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff in Kharkiv, according to Ukraine's state news agency Ukrinform. Zelensky said while conditions are "extremely difficult," the situation in the Kharkiv region is generally under control and Ukrainian soldiers are inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops.
Zelensky said he also met with wounded soldiers and the commander of an assault brigade.
"I spoke with them and presented them with state awards," Zelensky posted on X. "I am grateful to our warriors for their service and bravery. Ukraine is proud of them all. I also want to thank our medical workers, who are currently facing a difficult challenge as we defend our Kharkiv region."
Zelensky met with fighters from the 92nd Assault Brigade "Ivan Sirko" and was briefed by the brigade commander on the situation as Russians pressed their Kharkiv offensive.
Russia targeted the Kharkiv Oblast on May 10 with an estimated 30,000 troops, focusing the attack on Lyptsi and Vovchansk, settlements just south of the border about 45 miles from Kharkiv.
According to the Kyiv Independent Zelensky got detailed reports from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who leads the Khortytsia group of Ukrainian military forces as well as a briefing from Yurii Sodol, the commander of the operational-tactical group in Kharkiv.
Zelensky said the situation was analyzed in detail and plans were made to counter Russia's offensive.
"A plan of further actions has been determined -- both for the Kharkiv regional authorities and for all structures responsible for security in the region," he said.
Wednesday Ukraine said its forces were forced to withdraw from several towns and villages close to the northeastern border with Russia in Kharkiv province after heavy Russian fire. Ukrainian Armed Forces said despite the withdrawal said they were "not allowing the Russian occupiers to gain a foothold."
Ukraine has sent reinforcements into the Kharkiv region and more are expected to be deployed there.
Zelensky's Kharkiv visit came just after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Binken made a surprise visit to Ukraine to assure Ukraine that military aid, weapons and ammunition are being rushed to the frontlines.
Blinken said some supplies from the recently passed $62 billion aid package for Ukraine had already arrived and much more is coming, including an addition $2 billion in defense funding.
Related Links
Taiwan News at SinoDaily.com
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
| Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters |
