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Slow-crawling Dorian a new kind of threat
By Issam AHMED
Washington (AFP) Sept 3, 2019

Florida is ready, but where is the hurricane?
Port Saint Lucie, United States (AFP) Sept 3, 2019 - Houses and businesses are boarded up, bridges to barrier islands are blocked and many residents of Florida's beachside communities are long gone.

But the wait is starting to get to those who have stayed behind, waiting for Hurricane Dorian, the slow-moving behemoth that walloped the Bahamas and now lingers off shore.

"The uncertainty is a little nerve wracking," says Drew Gabrielson, clutching his trembling Chihuahua Rodney as he looks across a beach at the roughening surf.

The 47-year-old has been through hurricanes before, but this one, he says, is so slow.

"I'm ready for it to be over," he said.

On Tuesday, Dorian began moving at five miles per hour (eight kilometers per hour), a positively jaunty pace after being stuck at a near standstill for the better part of two days as it battered the helpless Bahamas.

That has given Florida precious time to assemble an army of utility trucks, bulldozers and road-clearing equipment.

But the sense of impatience is growing as the wait stretches out.

One tongue-in-cheek hurricane graphic on social media shows Dorian's arrival times on the US east coast as anywhere between Halloween and Christmas.

Still, there are chilling reminders that the big storm is still out there.

The hurricane's outer bands lash the shore from time to time, with 50 miles per hour gusts, intermittent rains and high seas.

- 'Already working overtime!' -

On Tuesday morning, Dorian had weakened to a Category 2 storm after leaving at least five dead in the Bahamas, where it landed Sunday as a maximum strength Category 5.

It was expected to continue picking up speed and turn north Wednesday night, which would mark a breakthrough after days in place.

"I think I can walk faster than this storm," said Erick Gill, communications director for Florida's St Lucie county.

"Looks like we are out of harm's way, but we still want to remain vigilant. Until it passes north of us, there's still a chance that we could be impacted," he said.

The biggest threat is from storm surges kicked up by Dorian, as well as potential hurricane-force winds.

Early Tuesday, dozens of electric power company workers arrived by bus from Orlando in St Lucie county.

The area is peppered with vulnerable mobile home parks and flood-prone areas, but the extra workers are on hand to repair power lines and clear downed trees once the storm moves through.

"Let the storm take its time, I'm already working overtime!" said one worker, who wouldn't give his name.

Florida has 118 shelters open across the state, where 10,300 people have taken refuge from the storm.

Mona Buchanan, the principal of a high school being used as a shelter in Fort Pierce, Florida said: "People are tense because we don't know where the storm is going to go."

After devastating the Bahamas, Dorian is continuing its long crawl toward the southeast US with slightly weakened winds.

So what has made this relatively small hurricane so destructive?

- Packing a punch -

Hurricane Dorian stormed into the record books on Sunday when its maximum sustained winds of 185 miles (300 kilometers) per hour tied it in second place with 1998's Gilbert and 2005's Wilma as the most powerful Atlantic hurricane since 1950, according to Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.

First place is still held by 1980's Allen, which had maximum sustained winds of 190 mph.

Dorian is also the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Bahamas by pressure.

From its peak as a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, it has weakened to a Category 2 storm, but the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned Americans to not take it lightly.

That's because wind speed is only one of a number of factors that make hurricanes destructive, including the storm surge and rainfall potential, as well as how long it stalls over one spot.

Dorian stalked the Bahamas for a highly unusual 18 hours, during which time it dumped in excess of 24 inches (60 cm) of rainfall, according to NASA data.

The archipelago's northernmost island also experienced storm surges estimated by the NHC at 10- to 15-foot (3m to 4.5m) above tide levels. At least five people have so far been reported killed, though the toll is expected to rise.

- Hurricanes that stall -

While over the Bahamas, Dorian's forward motion was at times just one mile per hour, heightening its destruction and making it harder for forecasters to predict its future path.

Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist with US advocacy group the Union of Concerned Scientists, told AFP hurricanes that stall for a long time are becoming more common, and recent studies show the phenomenon could be linked to man-made climate change.

The temperature contrast between the planet's higher and lower latitudes is the main driver of wind. Scientists suspect that because the Arctic regions are warming faster than those at the equator, global atmospheric circulation is also falling.

Before Dorian, Harvey loitered in Texas in 2017, while Florence stalled over North Carolina last September.

A study by NASA and NOAA scientists published in June found that between 1944 and 2017, the average forward speed of hurricanes decreased by 17 percent, from 11.5 mph, to 9.6 mph.

- Climate change supercharging storms -

While the science linking climate change and hurricane stalling is cutting-edge and still under discussion, there is a far more broad consensus on the other ways that global warming is supercharging storms.

The overall number of hurricanes is not increasing, but more are going on to become powerful Category 4 and 5 storms.

There are three main factors, according to Dahl. First, the excess heat from global warming has primarily been absorbed by the oceans, meaning that storms pass over warmer water carrying more potential energy that translates into rainfall and stronger winds.

"The warming has been even more pronounced in the Atlantic Ocean, which has warmed by about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.3 degrees Celsius) per decade since the 1970s," Dahl wrote in a blog post.

Secondly, rising sea levels make the storm surges higher and more extensive. And thirdly, warmer air holds more moisture -- an example of which was seen during Hurricane Harvey, which dumped 60 inches of rainfall.

A study by US federal researchers published in the influential journal Nature in February identified another trend: hurricanes are increasingly undergoing "rapid intensification" over a short period of time, with the scientists linking the phenomenon to man-made climate change.

Dorian also rapidly intensified not once but twice over this weekend.

"The percentage of Atlantic hurricanes that have experienced rapid intensification has tripled since the 1980s, it's not something that we can explain by natural climate variability," said Dahl.


Related Links
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
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SHAKE AND BLOW
Dorian kills five in Bahamas, US evacuates coast
Port Saint Lucie, United States (AFP) Sept 2, 2019
Monster storm Dorian stalled over the Bahamas Monday as surging seawaters and ferocious winds sowed chaos in low-lying island communities, claiming at least five lives and spurring mass evacuations on the US east coast. Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Minnis termed the hurricane a "historic tragedy" for the archipelago. "Thus far, the Royal Bahamas Police Force has confirmed that there are five deaths in Abaco," Minnis told a news conference, referring to the islands where Dorian made landfall as ... read more

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