Security, economy in focus at key China meetings
By Oliver HOTHAM
Beijing (AFP) March 1, 2024

China's top officials hold an annual gathering next week, offering a rare window into the ruling Communist Party's thinking as it tightens its grip in the face of dire economic headwinds.

From a protracted property crisis to waning domestic spending, China's lawmakers face a litany of challenges as they hold their "Two Sessions".

The meetings are not expected to see the unveiling of big-ticket bailouts that experts say are needed to get the economy back on track.

Instead, they will continue a path of "elevating national security measures on all fronts", Ho-fung Hung, a professor of Political Economy at Johns Hopkins University, told AFP.

"It will not help the economy but could help the party-state weather the storm of the economic crisis," he said.

Smaller-scale investments in science and technology, as well as steps to lift China's debt-battered property market, could be on the agenda.

However, Neil Thomas, an analyst on Chinese politics at the Asia Society, said President Xi Jinping "seems relatively unfazed by his country's recent growth struggles".

"I do not expect major shifts on core economic issues," he told AFP.

Meticulously choreographed and staged over more than a week, the most important of the "Two Sessions" is the National People's Congress (NPC), China's legislature, beginning Tuesday in Beijing's Great Hall of the People.

The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the first of the sessions, begins on Monday but is generally overshadowed by the NPC.

Thousands of delegates from across the country convene for the sessions to approve bills, budgets and personnel moves every year.

First on the agenda will be Premier Li Qiang's announcement of China's GDP growth goal for 2024 -- broadly expected to remain around five percent.

"The GDP target will likely err on the side of caution without conceding how large the pressures on the economy are," Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, told AFP.

Beijing has for years been reluctant to confront those pressures head-on with a major bailout, fearful of putting too much pressure on fragile state coffers.

Analysts don't see any reason to think that will change soon.

"Investors and consumers are looking for measures that can restore their confidence," Choyleva said.

"But the government's focus on preventing increased economic risk and improving security will not allow for the kind of measures that will immediately increase positivity," she said.

- Limited powers -

The NPC serves as a "crucial networking event, where thousands of powerful individuals from around China meet and discuss politics", according to analyst Nis Grunberg.

On paper, it wields little actual power.

All major decisions will have been made weeks before in closed-door meetings of the Communist Party, far from the international media's cameras.

"It has never rejected any bill, budget, report, or nomination put before it," Changhao Wei, a Fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center of Yale Law School and founder of the NPC Observer website, said of the congress.

However, the topics that are up for discussion and the tone of the speeches allow for key insights into what's keeping China's rulers up at night.

High among those worries are national defence and security. An increase in China's military budget, which is second only to the United States, is also expected on Tuesday.

Beijing revised a law dramatically expanding its definition of espionage last year and conducted raids on a string of big-name consulting, research and due diligence firms.

The legislature's top body approved a broad and vaguely worded revision to China's state secrets law in the run-up to the NPC that was "a clear signal of security's importance for this year's governance agenda", Choyleva of Enodo Economics said.

Given the choice between deep reforms to restart economic growth and efforts to strengthen the state's power, analysts say China's policymakers have little room for manoeuvre.

"Beijing will not budge on its control and security-first approach," analyst Grunberg said.

"Everyone should ask themselves: when did Xi last compromise on control in favour of economic growth, let alone liberal reform?"

What to know about China's annual parliamentary meeting
Beijing (AFP) March 1, 2024 - Thousands of delegates from across China will convene in Beijing next week for the start of the country's annual legislative meetings known as the "Two Sessions".

The tightly controlled voting on legislation already pre-approved by the ruling Communist Party means there will be no major changes.

But the meetings do provide a rare glimpse into the top leadership's priorities, with analysts eyeing support measures for China's ailing economy as well as an expected increase in defence spending.

Here's what you need to know:

- What are the 'Two Sessions'? -

The first one, due to kick off Monday, is a gathering of China's political advisory committee, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

The group's members -- who have included many of China's most famous celebrities, such as Yao Ming and Jackie Chan -- receive a lot of attention at home.

But its discussions are relatively low stakes: representatives provide lawmakers with policy suggestions that, more often than not, have little impact on national policy.

The real focus of the "Two Sessions" is the meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC), the country's legislature, starting Tuesday at Beijing's Great Hall of the People.

Two-thirds of the legislature's members come from the Communist Party.

And most of the bills that will be passed have already been decided by party leaders well in advance, leading to it being described as a "rubber-stamp" parliament.

- How important is it? -

China goes to great lengths to make sure there are no embarrassing incidents during the parliamentary session, which is touted by the Communist Party as proof that it answers to the people despite its monopoly on power.

The meeting place in the Great Hall of the People is freshened up, traffic is shut down, factories are closed to guarantee blue skies, plainclothes policemen seem to lurk on every corner and political dissidents are rounded up and asked -- or sometimes forced -- to go on "vacation" somewhere far away from the capital.

It is also the one time each year when the country's most powerful politicians are all in one place, making it a key venue for political horse-trading, glad-handing and backstabbing.

Every five years, the parliamentary session also sees the appointment of the president -- last year, Xi Jinping began his third term in the position, complementing two top Communist Party positions he secured at a congress in 2022.

This year's "Two Sessions" will also feature the first annual government work report presented by Premier Li Qiang since he ascended to the country's number-two position at last year's meeting.

- What are the top issues? -

The economy, beset by slumping consumer activity and a prolonged crisis in the property sector, will be the most closely-watched topic at this year's gathering.

The conference will see delegates set official growth targets for 2024, following a reported national GDP expansion of 5.2 percent last year -- the lowest rate in decades, excluding the pandemic years.

The release of details on military spending will offer signals as to China's confidence in current geopolitical conditions, as tensions persist across the Taiwan Strait and Russia's war in Ukraine enters its third year.

Observers will also be closely assessing any plans announced on the allocation of public resources into the tech sectors or major infrastructure development projects.

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