Dr. Gyorgy Varga and his research team, drawing on data from over 46 Saharan dust episodes between 2019 and 2023, presented evidence that airborne mineral particles significantly disrupt photovoltaic (PV) systems in both Central and Southern Europe. Countries affected include Hungary, Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece.
Every year, the Sahara emits billions of tonnes of dust, with tens of millions of tonnes drifting into European airspace. This dust scatters and absorbs sunlight, lowers ground-level solar irradiance, and fosters cloud development, all of which diminish solar panel output. Researchers emphasized that current forecasting systems, which rely on fixed aerosol data, are inadequate during dust events.
The team advocates for a shift to dynamic models that incorporate real-time dust concentrations and aerosol-cloud interactions. Such improvements would enhance the precision of solar energy scheduling and bolster grid stability.
"There's a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors," says Varga.
"Without them, the risk of underperformance and grid instability will only grow as solar becomes a larger part of our energy mix."
The study also warns about long-term impacts of dust on solar hardware, citing issues like surface contamination and abrasion that lead to efficiency losses and elevated maintenance expenses. These insights are part of broader EU and Hungarian initiatives to build climate-resilient and efficient renewable energy systems. The research is backed by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (FK138692), the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and the EU-supported National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change.
Research Report:The shadow of the wind: photovoltaic power generation under Europe's dusty skies
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