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OIL AND GAS
Russia sees oil markets balanced in late 2017
by Daniel J. Graeber
Moscow (UPI) Dec 21, 2016


Colorado's economy showing improvement
Denver (UPI) Dec 21, 2016 - Colorado's economy is recovering along with the energy sector, though trajectory depends on U.S. rate policies next year, the state budget office said.

"Colorado's economy has picked up in recent months," Gov. John Hickenlooper said in a statement. "Our state's economy has demonstrated resilience during the downturn in the energy sector, and we are cautiously optimistic about the future."

Oil from Colorado accounts for about one out of every 50 barrels produced in the United States. Spending in the oil and gas sector declined and put some pressure on tax revenue growth early this year, though Hickenlooper said the deep contraction that started last year may have bottomed out.

The Colorado Office of State Planning and Budget said it expected revenue in the state's general fund to increase 4.4 percent in the fiscal year ending in 2017 and 5.1 percent for the fiscal year ending in 2018. The state, however, still expects a shortfall of $52.4 million, which the planning budget said it would work to close in budget requests in January.

From late 2014 to early 2016, the state's budget office said gross domestic product for Colorado's industrial sector dropped 24 percent and most of that came from the oil and gas sector. The rest of the state economy grew by 7.3 percent.

The OSPB said stability that started to emerge in mid 2016 meant the downturn for the oil and gas industry was slowing. The industry for Colorado has a small employment base, but accounts for large expenditures elsewhere and has some of the highest wages in the state.

"The large drop in spending and income in the state from the downturn in the oil and gas industry is no longer weighing on growth," the OSPB's report read. "An increase in new business formation, the source of most net new jobs, is also contributing to Colorado's improved economic growth."

British energy company BP said last week it was relocating the headquarters for its Lower 48 U.S. states division from Houston to Denver. The Downtown Denver Partnership development group said the move by BP is a testament to the city's strength. Denver, it said, boasts the seventh-most educated workforce in the country when measured against other metropolitan areas.

The OSPB's report expressed concern about the slow pace of recovery in the broader national economy and said the hawkish rate policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve could erase much of the momentum.

"Previous monetary tightening was followed by deteriorating financial conditions and a strong rise in the value of the U.S. dollar, which weighed on industrial production and global growth during 2015 and into the beginning of 2016," it said.

Only when crude oil markets balance out in the second half of next year can major players starting talking about market recovery, Russia's oil minister said.

An agreement by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-member states like Russia to cut production starting in January is aimed at erasing the supply-side strains that pushed oil prices to below $30 per barrel early this year.

Crude oil prices have shot up considerably since the November agreement was brokered, holding steady in the mid-$50 range. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told state broadcaster Rossiya-24 that crude oil prices could make a run at $60 per barrel, but it's unlikely they'll move much higher soon.

"It is unlikely that we will see price increases to a level that was in 2014, which was more than $100 per barrel," he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said this week next year's budget was based on oil priced at around $40 per barrel.

OPEC's agreement outlines a production cut from Russia, though the latest figures find Russian crude oil production growth is expected to show up in full-year 2016 figures. OPEC said it expects Russia to produce an average 11.1 million bpd next year, against the estimated 11.05 million bpd for 2016.

Novak nevertheless said supply-side pressures should ease moving into 2017.

"According to our estimates, this surplus could go away in the end of 2017, the third or fourth quarter," he said. "Then we can talk about market recovery."

On compliance, the minister said there's no reason to believe any of the parties to the agreement, including the non-OPEC members, would violate the terms of a deal that sidelines about what OPEC expects in global demand growth next year.

Novak last week said representatives from 12 oil companies in the country agreed to work together to monitor the terms of an agreement to cut oil production during the first half of next year. Members would meet twice a month to ensure the "terms are equal for everyone."


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Previous Report
OIL AND GAS
Oil prices decline on production questions
New York (UPI) Dec 19, 2016
Crude oil prices drifted lower in early Monday trading as questions lingered over whether or not parties to an OPEC agreement were playing ball. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in late November agreed to cap production at 32.5 million barrels per day starting in January. Meeting that level would require cuts in output from members and non-member states. ... read more


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