Reevaluation of carbon-capture models highlights inaccuracies

Reevaluation of carbon-capture models highlights inaccuracies
by Clarence Oxford
Los Angeles CA (SPX) May 06, 2024

Recent research from Michigan State University has revealed significant overestimations in the carbon-capture potential of reforestation models. The study, led by Professor Runsheng Yin from the Department of Forestry, suggests that these models, pivotal for assessing reforestation's role in mitigating climate change, could be off by as much as three times the actual capability.

"The climate crisis is heightening, with 2023 representing the warmest year on record," Yin explained. "Nature-based solutions have an important role to play in helping us stem the worst impacts of climate change - but rigorously assessed methods to reliably offset and reduce greenhouse gas emissions could not be more urgent. As the practice becomes increasingly monetized, it is crucial that the accounting is done accurately."

The study focused on a pine field in the Southern United States, where intensive management practices are common. Yin's findings suggest that the actual amount of carbon offset credits that landowners can claim is exaggerated by at least a factor of 2.76, casting doubt on previous assumptions of efficiency. This overestimation extends beyond just one pine field, reflecting a broader issue in the methods used across different forestation projects.

"Existing studies have largely failed to conform to the accounting principles of the Paris Agreement, treat timber and carbon as joint products appropriately, and consider how long each of the resulting wood products will store its carbon," Yin commented on the shortcomings of current carbon-capture assessments. The decomposition rates of various wood products, such as paper, plywood, and furniture, play a critical role in determining the actual carbon storage period, which is essential for earning carbon credits.

Moreover, the research underscores the need for more accurate and detailed evaluations of how long carbon remains sequestered in wood products after their use. Ensuring that carbon storage assessments align more closely with real-world data is vital for maximizing the effectiveness of reforestation efforts in carbon sequestration strategies.

Professor Yin recommends strengthening both national and international efforts to assess and improve carbon-capture models. He advocates for the creation of necessary programs that can more accurately evaluate the efficacy of reforestation in reducing atmospheric carbon. This approach, he argues, is crucial for both enhancing the accuracy of carbon offset credits and encouraging investment in reforestation as a viable climate mitigation strategy.

Research Report:Global Forest Carbon