Premature end to Iran nuclear deal after reimposed UN sanctions

Premature end to Iran nuclear deal after reimposed UN sanctions
by AFP Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) Oct 18, 2025

A landmark 10-year deal world powers signed with Iran to rein in its nuclear programme officially ends Saturday.

But the deal began to fall apart years ago, and wide-ranging United Nations sanctions were reimposed last month on the Islamic republic, effectively burying the agreement but creating space for something new, according to experts.

- What does 'Termination Day' mean? -

The deal's "termination day" was set for October 18, 2025, exactly 10 years after the adoption of resolution 2231, with which the UN Security Council enshrined it.

Officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement between Iran and China, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States saw the lifting of international sanctions against Iran in exchange for restrictions on Tehran's nuclear programme.

But Washington left the deal in 2018 during President Donald Trump's first term in office and reinstated sanctions. Tehran then began stepping up its nuclear programme.

Talks to revive the agreement have failed so far, and in August, Britain, Germany and France triggered the so-called "snapback" process, leading to the re-imposition of the UN sanctions.

"Termination day is relatively meaningless due to snapback," Arms Control Association expert Kelsey Davenport told AFP.

As the deal expired Saturday, Iran's foreign ministry said that it was no longer bound by restrictions on its nuclear programme while stressing it still maintained a "commitment to diplomacy".

A diplomat close to Iran's nuclear issues told AFP that Iran would also mark termination day with a statement Saturday at the UN in New York.

- Where are we now? -

Though "lifeless" for years, snapback "officially buried" the nuclear deal, with "its sorry fate continuing to cast a shadow over the future", said Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group's Iran project director.

Western powers and Israel have long accused Iran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, a claim Tehran denies.

Nuclear talks between Iran and world powers are currently deadlocked.

"Iran remains sceptical of the utility of engaging with the US given its history with President Trump, while Washington still seeks a maximalist deal," Vaez told AFP.

On Monday, Trump said that he wanted a peace deal with Iran, but stressed the ball was in Tehran's court.

Tehran has repeatedly said it remains open to diplomacy with the United States, provided Washington offers guarantees against military action during any potential talks.

The US joined Israel in striking the Islamic republic's nuclear sites during a 12-day war in June.

The three European powers also last week announced they will seek to restart talks to find a "comprehensive, durable and verifiable agreement".

Iranian top diplomat Abbas Araghchi said during an interview last week that Tehran does "not see any reason to negotiate" with the Europeans given they triggered the snapback mechanism.

- What's next? -

Despite the challenges, the death of the 2015 deal "creates space to explore creative solutions to the Iranian nuclear crisis", analyst Davenport said.

"Diplomacy remains the only viable option to reduce Iran's proliferation risk in the long-term," she added.

But she warned the more time elapsed, "the more challenging it will be to negotiate a deal down the road and the greater the risk of conflict re-erupting".

Iran says no longer bound by 'restrictions' on its nuclear programme
Tehran (AFP) Oct 18, 2025 - Iran said on Saturday that it was no longer bound by restrictions on its nuclear programme as a landmark 10-year deal between it and world powers expired, though Tehran reiterated its "commitment to diplomacy".

The 2015 deal -- signed in Vienna by Iran, China, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States -- saw the lifting of international sanctions against the Islamic republic in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear programme.

But the pact had already been in tatters after Washington unilaterally withdrew during President Donald Trump's first term, with Iran later pulling back from its commitments.

The reimposition last month of UN sanctions at the urging of three of the deal's European signatories rendered the accord effectively moot.

From now on, "all of the provisions (of the deal), including the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear programme and the related mechanisms are considered terminated", Iran's foreign ministry said in a statement on the day of the pact's expiration.

"Iran firmly expresses its commitment to diplomacy," it added.

Western powers have long accused Iran of secretly seeking nuclear weapons -- something it has repeatedly denied, insisting its nuclear programme is solely for civilian purposes such as energy production.

The deal's "termination day" was set for October 18, 2025, exactly 10 years after it was enshrined in the UN's Security Council resolution 2231.

The accord capped Iran's uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent in exchange for sanctions relief and provided for strict supervision of its nuclear activities by the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

But Washington left the deal in 2018 and reinstated sanctions, after which Tehran began stepping up its nuclear programme.

According to the IAEA, Iran is the only country without a nuclear weapons programme to enrich uranium to 60 percent. That is close to the threshold of 90 percent required for a bomb, and well above the level needed for civilian nuclear use.

- 'Irresponsible actions' -

In July, Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA following the war with Israel, with Tehran pointing to the agency's failure to condemn Israeli and US strikes on its nuclear facilities.

The unprecedented bombing campaign by Israel and the retaliation by Iran during the 12-day war derailed ongoing nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

At the initiative of France, Britain and Germany, widespread UN sanctions against Iran returned into force in late September for the first time in a decade.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a letter addressed to the United Nations on Saturday that the expiration of the 2015 deal renders the sanctions "null and void".

Britain, France and Germany accuse Iran of not cooperating with the IAEA and would like it to return to negotiations with the United States.

"Iran's efforts to revive the exchanges (with the IAEA) that led to the agreement in Cairo were also sabotaged by the irresponsible actions of the three European countries," the Iranian foreign ministry said in Saturday's statement, referring to a recent framework to resume cooperation.