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NUKEWARS
Outside View: 'Walking on eggshells'
by James Zumwalt
Herndon, Va. (UPI) Apr 20, 2012

N. Korea may be ready for nuclear test: report
Seoul (AFP) April 21, 2012 - North Korea has apparently completed preparations for a third nuclear test, possibly within two weeks, after firing a long-range rocket this month, a newspaper report said Saturday.

South Korea's Chosun Ilbo said the information came from a government source. It relates to preparations for a test in the northeastern town of Punggye-ri, where the North carried out two previous nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

A defence ministry spokesman declined to comment on the report.

A South Korean government official told AFP on April 8 on condition of anonymity that satellite images showed a new underground tunnel built at the nuclear test site besides two others where the previous tests were conducted.

"Heaps of earth and sand which had been piled up outside the new tunnel have disappeared," a government source was quoted as saying by Chosun.

"It is highly likely that the North has installed a nuclear device inside the tunnel and sealed it (with the piles of earth and sand)," the source said.

Since last year, US and South Korean intelligence authorities have been monitoring the excavation by measuring the amount of soil and rocks dumped from the tunnel, it said.

But it has not yet been confirmed whether the North has installed cables for detonation, the source said.

"It is technically feasible for the North to carry out a nuclear test within two weeks," the source added.

The North, believed to have enough plutonium for six to eight bombs, tested atomic weapons in October 2006 and May 2009. Both were held one to three months after missile tests.

It has vowed to launch satellites "one after another", vigorously rejecting international condemnation of an April 13 launch that was seen overseas as a disguised ballistic missile test.


"Do you feel manipulated, controlled or lied to? Are you the focus of intense, violent and irrational rages? Do you feel you are 'walking on eggshells' to avoid the next confrontation?"

So begins a marketing campaign for a book entitled "Stop Walking on Eggshells" -- the psychology of dealing with people suffering from Borderline Personality Disorder.

The book's title is an axiom meaning "to take steps gingerly; to be very diplomatic and inoffensive." In the foreign policy arena, if the answer to the question above is "yes," be assured the country with which we are dealing is North Korea.

On April 13, continuing its cycle of unprovoked hostility, interspersed with an occasional feint at cooperation, North Korea conducted a rocket test, in violation of its Feb. 29 promise for a moratorium on missile and nuclear tests, given in exchange for a U.S. commitment for 240,000 tons of food.

Pyongyang disregarded numerous international protests made in advance of the test, electing to demonstrate its missile acumen on the occasion of the country's celebration of the 100th birthday of its founding father Kim Il Sung.

While the North claimed the effort was a satellite launch, it is believed that was simply a cover story for a missile test as the two involve similar technology. Like the North's two previous tests, this one proved to be an embarrassing failure as the missile broke up 90 seconds into flight.

What has also proven to be an embarrassment is the international response to the North's latest provocation.

Already one of the most heavily sanctioned countries by the United Nations, Pyongyang's decision to go forward with the test reflected its total disdain for the international body.

Among the factors it obviously considered in conducting the test was: "What more can the U.N. sanction?" The North appears to have made the right assessment as nothing substantive will be done by the world body.

As if "walking on eggshells," while the United Nations and the United States have condemned the test, they won't dwell on it or seek additional sanctions for fear of provoking further aggression by Pyongyang. Instead, the only punitive action to be taken will be to tighten existing sanctions.

This inaction is directly linked to a huge pile of dirt at a North Korean nuclear test site identified in a South Korean satellite photograph.

The past two missile tests Pyongyang conducted were followed by subsurface nuclear tests. In both, the nuclear device was placed deep within a tunnel, which was back-filled with dirt trucked in earlier. The satellite photograph suggests another nuclear test is to follow the failed April 13 launch based on a new massive pile of dirt being stockpiled.

The international community hopes to dissuade Pyongyang from conducting a nuclear test. Therefore, it doesn't want to antagonize the North by being too critical. After being unsuccessful in dissuading Pyongyang from conducting its missile test and after 64 years of being stung by its very aggressive foreign policy -- one involving repeated acts of unprovoked violence including an invasion, numerous kidnappings, assassinations, infiltrations, attacks on ships and aircraft, etc. -- one would think the international community would have arrived at a proper diagnosis for three generations of the Kim family leadership -- i.e., it suffers from BPD, leaving little hope for changing its foreign policy.

Even the one nation threatened most by Pyongyang's aggression -- South Korea -- has done little to try and curtail it. A decade of foreign policy appeasement (Sunshine Policy) by Seoul toward the North (1998-2008) did little to do so. But even when a new party took power and renounced the Sunshine Policy, it did nothing to "stand tall" against the North when its aggression continued -- always threatening action but then backing down.

Its hands now have been tied by South Korean voters who, in the country's most recent election, made clear they have yet to be pushed to the point of responding in kind to the North's aggression as they desire a diplomatic solution.

The book "Stop Walking on Eggshells" notes the need to make sense out of the chaos created by one suffering from BPD behavior. Other steps include standing up for one's self and, perhaps most importantly, setting boundaries.

This is something yet to be done with Pyongyang as the North has consistently been the one setting higher limits on its aggression. As it does so, it watches us backpedal, drawing a new line in the sand beyond which their aggression won't be tolerated -- only again to see us do so. As such, we all become enablers of the North's disruptive disorder.

When criticized for making the food agreement with Pyongyang, U.S. President Barack Obama said he did so only to see how serious the North was about cooperating. He now has his answer.

And, by Obama rendering a rebuke of the North as if he were "walking on eggshells," Pyongyang now has its answer as to how serious he is about taking action to curtail its aggression. Such a lame rebuke not only encourages Pyongyang to conduct its third nuclear test but encourages Iran to press forward with its own nuclear program as well.

(James. G. Zumwalt, is a retired U.S. Marine Corps officer who heads Admiral Zumwalt and Consultants, Inc. He is author of "Bare Feet, Iron Will -- Stories from the Other Side of Vietnam's Battlefields" and the recently released "Living the Juche Lie -- North Korea's Kim Dynasty.")

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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US takes China 'at word' on N. Korea sanctions
Washington (AFP) April 19, 2012 - The United States said Thursday it believed China's assurances that it is abiding by sanctions on North Korea after charges that Beijing supplied technology for a missile launcher.

IHS Jane's Defence Weekly said that UN officials are investigating allegations that China violated sanctions imposed by the Security Council after North Korea unveiled the 16-wheel launcher at a military parade.

"China has provided repeated assurances that it's complying fully with both Resolution 1718 as well as 1874. We're not presently aware of any UN probe into this matter," State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters.

"I think we take them at their word," Toner said, adding that he was not aware of specific conversations between the United States and China about the launcher.

North Korea showed off the launcher, carrying an apparently new medium-range missile, as part of national celebrations on Sunday for the centennial of the birth of the regime's founder Kim Il-Sung.

Quoting an unidentified official, IHS Jane's Defence Weekly said China could be in breach of the two resolutions approved after North Korea's 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests if it passed along the vehicle since then.

US Representative Mike Turner, who heads a panel of the House Armed Services Committee, asked Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and intelligence chief James Clapper to investigate whether China supplied the launcher's technology.

In a letter, Turner quoted military specialist Richard Fisher as telling him that the launcher was "very likely based on a Chinese design" and that the technology transfer would have required a green light from Beijing.

"I am sure you agree that the United States cannot permit a state such as the People's Republic of China to support -- either intentionally or by a convenient lack of attention -- the ambitions of a state like North Korea to threaten the security of the American people," the Ohio Republican wrote.

"Indeed, the possibility of such cooperation undermines the administration's entire policy of investing China with the responsibility of getting tough on North Korea."

US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, questioned by Turner on Thursday on Capitol Hill about the possibility of tech transfers, said: "I'm sure there's been some help coming from China."

But he did not elaborate on whether that "help" constituted a violation of sanctions, saying: "I don't know the exact extent of that."

China, which holds a veto on the Security Council, is the main supporter of North Korea, although it voiced misgivings over Pyongyang's defiant rocket launch last week.

North Korea described the launch as an unsuccessful bid to put a satellite into orbit, but the United States said it was a disguised missile test.

Separately, Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun reported Wednesday that China has stopped sending back fleeing North Koreans in retaliation for its ally's failure to consult Beijing over its rocket launch.

China's repatriations have triggered wide criticism overseas, with human rights groups saying that North Koreans face imprisonment, forced abortions and even sometimes execution if returned home.

"We obviously hope that the media reports are true," Toner said.

But the spokesman said the United States could not confirm a change in China's policy.

"We consistently urge China to adhere to its international obligations as part of the UN Convention on Refugees," he said.



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N. Korea threatens war, Seoul unveils new missile
Seoul (AFP) April 19, 2012
North Korea demanded Thursday that South Korea apologise for what it called insults during major anniversary festivities, or face a "sacred war", as Seoul unveiled a new missile to deter its neighbour. Regional tensions have risen since Pyongyang went ahead with a long-range rocket launch last Friday, defying international calls to desist. The event was to have been a centrepiece of cele ... read more


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