Now, as in the past, what happens to Libya serves a barometer of major trends of international politics.

Before World War II, Libya was a colony (acquired from Turkey in 1912) in the Italian Empire. Actually, it had been two major colonies, Tripolitania in the west (capital at Tripoli) and Cyrenaica in the east (capital at Benghazi). Mussolini merged both colonies with the vast interior region of Fezzan in 1934.

Under British military occupation, and as an independent kingdom, the dual capitals returned in various forms until Moammar Gadhafi overthrew the monarchy, establishing Tripoli as the capital and the seat of his power. This historical division is eerily similar to the situation on the ground today.

During WWII, some odd and some anachronistic proposals were suggested for the future of Libya. One mentioned Tripolitania as a future homeland for the Jews. Another offered Tripolitania and Cyrenaica to Turkey as an inducement to join the Allies in the war. At the Potsdam Conference in 1945, Stalin seized a more forward-looking position on Libya: U.N. Trusteeship administered by the Soviet Union.

In crafting the 1947 peace treaty with Italy after WWII, no agreement was reached on its colonies, save that Italy renounced sovereignty over Libya, Eritrea and Italian Somaliland.

The Italian colonial question then became hostage to the great developments transforming world politics, including the decline of Europe and the rise of two superpowers, the Cold War, and the anti-colonial movement and the Afro-Asian awakening.

Libya became the first battleground for these combined forces in the U.N. handling of the Italian colonial question. At first neither the Italians nor the Western colonial nations understood the strength of these forces. They called for a three-way split of Libya under Italian, British and French trusteeship. In the spring of 1949, their plan was stunningly defeated by a combination of the Soviet bloc, the Arab League and the Afro-Asian nations. Oddly, little Haiti provided the one vote margin of defeat.

By the fall 1949 session of the United Nations, the Western powers unexpectedly backed a forward-looking plan to give Libya independence by 1952. Now there was broad agreement and a kingdom was established in late 1951. Gadhafi overthrew that kingdom in 1969.

Today, Libya is once again a central case in international politics, as new trends emerge that will shape future decades. These include globalism, its new diplomacy and its interrelationship with Islam, itself a global force.

As we approach the latter stages of petro-politics -- the wells will run dry! -- what role will oil-producing states like Libya have in the short- and long-term future? Can economies be created to support them later this century? And how will Arab-Israeli issues be resolved diplomatically?

A second force is the Arab re-awakening. From Tunisia to Iraq, regime change and more representative government is the demand of the day. What kind of Libya will arise from the civil war? What will each of these re-formed Arab states look like politically? Will conservative religious forces or more secular ones shape their international politics?

Far-sighted diplomats must consider these emerging mega-trends as Libya and the rest of the Arab world looks to the future.

Currently the United Nations has intervened in Libya, having created a broad coalition. With the essential support of the Arab League, the United Nations authorized the NATO intervention.

So far, there has been unity underpinning this global effort. But the coalition may weaken over time. China must fear a Facebook Revolution at home and Russia has its own civil strife in Chechnya. Both abstained on the U.N. vote on intervention. Meanwhile, Turkey has very recently offered its own mediation and NATO wants more U.S. participation again. Now U.S. drone planes are part of the plan.

Pursuing a diplomatic course, the nations of the African Union pursued a strategy quite different from that of the United Nations: Getting Gadhafi to agree to a cease-fire and presenting a road map to peace through diplomacy. Now Gadhafi has agreed to accept a cease-fire to begin negotiations.

However, Great Britain, France and Italy are sending military advisers to Cyrenaica. This might be an unfortunate step to a much greater military presence.

Quite interesting are some unusual diplomatic efforts. Gadhafi wrote personally to U.S. President Barack Obama. The letter appeared the very next day on the Internet. The United States, Britain and France submitted a foreign policy editorial to The Times in London -- an unprecedented action.

Is this the start of Facebook Diplomacy? Surely, if we can start revolutions with Internet posts, we should also be able to figure out ways to stop civil wars.

For now, we need high-order transformational diplomacy to help create the new state of Libya. Otherwise NATO is looking at something similar to U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. That would be taking the wrong road.

(Silvio Laccetti is a long time professor of social sciences and a columnist. The Italian Peace Treaty after World War II was the centerpiece of his doctoral dissertation.

Reach him at [email protected].)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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