Success in Afghanistan isn't just about killing the enemy. It is about shaping the environment such that the insurgency will wither.

It is not nation-building but counterinsurgency.

Important components of counterinsurgency are good governance and rule of law.

Establishing effective and honest governance continues to be a challenge. Far too many provincial and senior district officials are corrupt. They comprise a group of "new warlords" who impose their predatory behavior on the Afghan populace. They sow seeds of distrust and skepticism regarding any effort to promote good governmental practices and make progress impossible. They need to be weeded out.

The second critical element is a fair and efficient judicial system.

Conditions need to be created whereby the Afghan people will use the Afghan legal system to adjudicate disputes rather than seeking recompense through Taliban courts. At the present time, the Afghan judicial system is slow and remains plagued by widespread bribery.

Insurgent activity is high. The Taliban have learned all the lessons of the Iraq War. They have become proficient in the use of improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers. They conduct complex attacks involving the initial use of an IED, followed by small arms fire consisting of AK-47 assault rifle fire and rocket-propelled grenades. Supply convoys are particularly vulnerable to this tactic.

The enemy now employs suicide truck bombers to breach the walls of our operating bases and penetrate into the bases themselves. The use of the RKG-3 anti-armor grenade in urban scenarios and the employment of explosively formed projectiles may be seen in increasing frequency.

Wounded soldiers and civilians represent five to 10 times those killed in action. No doubt that the fighting will continue to escalate before it is contained and reduced. Clearly, ingenuity and battlefield innovation would help blunt the effects of the current and future lethal Taliban tactics.

In my opinion, success will very much depend on a bottom-up approach, the opposite of a hub-and-spoke strategy. That is, areas of stability will be connected to the central government "hub" until some type of critical mass of secure districts is reached, whereby security and stable government can be sustained by the Afghans themselves. The top-down approach of attempting to extend the hub outward clearly has been wanting.

Any approach will be a challenge as long as the Afghan Security Forces are too weak to lead the security effort. The problem is particularly acute in the Afghan National Police and the Afghan army suffers from a desertion rate of nearly 10 percent.

The strategy of the Taliban and their allies is simple and not unlike that used by the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese. It is to bleed us and the Afghan people to diminish our will to resist. The only thing missing is a Tet-like offensive to crack whatever is remaining of a political consensus to fight on.

On the positive side, the arrival of U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus has reversed any residual negative effects of the sudden departure of Gen. Stanley McChrystal. The new commander possesses a calm and almost academic demeanor stressing clarity and simplicity. Such an approach is sorely needed because the military often establishes procedures that are far too complex and convoluted and invariably have a negative impact on operations.

We are still losing the information war. Yet there are ample instances of success in combat, civil and anti-narcotic operations, which we continue to exploit ineffectively. I expect this aspect of the fight to improve with time.

This war won't be over in one year but it is certainly possible, within that time frame, to regain the initiative and pave the way for a successful outcome.

(Lawrence Sellin, Ph.D., is a colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve and a veteran of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. He is currently serving his second deployment to Afghanistan. The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Army or U.S. government.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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