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TRADE WARS
New IMF chief Georgieva says world suffering 'synchronized slowdown'
By Heather SCOTT
Washington (AFP) Oct 8, 2019

Protect global trade against Trump 'policy delusions': economist
Geneva (AFP) Oct 8, 2019 - A prominent US economist called Tuesday on countries to save the multilateral global trading system which he said was facing deliberate attack by Washington as part of US President Donald Trump's "fantasy world".

"The trading system is under stress right now for one overwhelming reason, and that is my country, the United States," Jeffrey Sachs told the opening of a large conference at the World Trade Organization in Geneva.

"The problem is that we have the largest economy in the world that (is acting) in a very unstable manner," he said, speaking before around 1,000 people, including numerous decision makers and diplomats.

He maintained that Washington's escalating trade war with China was linked to "the challenge that China's rise pose to the American psyche, especially the foreign policy establishment."

"We're seeing a deliberate attempt to break up the trading system in a very misguided way because of American foreign policy delusions," lamented Sachs, who heads the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University.

The world's two biggest economies have been embroiled in a bruising year-and-a-half-long trade war, and Sachs's comments came ahead of a new round of punitive tariffs due to hit next week.

US and Chinese officials are meanwhile due to resume trade talks in Washington in a few days, but with little sign the two sides have made progress in bridging the distance between them.

Last month, Trump insisted that he did not need to reach a deal with Beijing in order to secure his reelection next year, insisting that the strength of the US economy would do the job.

Tensions rose further on Monday, after the US Commerce Department blacklisted 28 Chinese entities that it says are implicated in rights violations and abuses targeting Uighurs and other mostly Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang region.

Washington also decided several months ago to ban technology giant Huawei and other Chinese firms from government contracts over alleged Iran sanctions violations.

The trade tensions have taken their toll on global trade growth, according to the WTO, which earlier this month dramatically slashed its forecast.

Trump has meanwhile also threatened to quit the WTO and has repeatedly criticised it for giving China preferential treatment.

A US refusal to allow new judges to be appointed to the WTO's appellate board is also threatening to plunge its entire dispute settlement process into paralysis in a matter of weeks.

But Sachs insisted that "the trading system is not in generalised state of disrepair."

"Most countries in this room support the trading system," he said, adding though that there is "unfortunately one leader who attacks".

"We have a big job to do" to protect the WTO and the global trading system against those attacks, he said.

"Let's not get completely distracted by (Trump's) fantasy world."

Grinding trade disputes are undermining the global economy, which is set to see its slowest growth in nearly a decade, the new IMF chief said Tuesday.

Research shows the impact of the trade conflict is widespread and countries must be ready to respond in unison with cash infusions, Kristalina Georgieva said in her first speech as managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

She also called for a ramp-up in carbon taxes to address the other challenge facing the global economy: climate change.

"In 2019, we expect slower growth in nearly 90 percent of the world. The global economy is now in a synchronized slowdown," Georgieva said in a speech ahead of IMF-World Bank autumn meetings next week.

"This widespread deceleration means that growth this year will fall to its lowest rate since the beginning of the decade."

She said the IMF is cutting its forecasts for growth this year and next. Previously, the world economy had been projected to expand by 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020.

The fund is due to release details in its updated World Economic Outlook on October 15.

While trade tensions had been talked about as a danger to the economy, "now, we see that they are actually taking a toll," she said.

"Global trade growth has come to a near standstill."

For the global economy, the cumulative effect of trade conflicts could mean a loss of around $700 billion by 2020, or about 0.8 percent of GDP, she said, which is far higher than the fund previously forecast as its worst case scenario.

That is an amount "approximately the size of Switzerland's entire economy," she said.

IMF research shows the secondary effects of the trade war -- such as the loss of confidence and financial market reactions -- are far greater than the direct economic impact of the tariffs.

"It is the indirect impacts that really bite," Georgieva said of the trade war during a forum following her speech.

She warned that "once undermined, confidence is hard to rebuild."

"We are already shooting ourselves in the foot."

- Spend more -

President Donald Trump's trade war with China involves steep tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way commerce but there are conflicts with other trading partners as well.

And even if growth resurges next year, some of the "rifts" already caused by the trade conflicts could cause "changes that last a generation," such as shifting supply chains, she said.

"The results are clear. Everyone loses in a trade war," Georgieva said.

To protect against a sharp global slowdown, she called on countries with funds available to deploy their "fiscal firepower."

While some governments are burdened by high debt levels, "in places such as Germany, the Netherlands, and South Korea, an increase in spending -- especially in infrastructure and R&D -- will help boost demand and growth potential," Georgieva said.

Many economies have been relying on central banks and low interest rates to support economic expansion but she warned that keeping rates low for too long can cause investors to engage in risky behavior.

The IMF estimates that if there were a major economic downturn, "corporate debt at risk of default would rise to $19 trillion, or nearly 40 percent of the total debt in eight major economies," she said.

"This is above the levels seen during the financial crisis."

Georgieva, who this month took over leadership at the IMF from Christine Lagarde amid rising concerns about the world economy, called on global leaders "to work together, now, and find a lasting solution on trade."

That includes resolving legitimate concerns over protection of proprietary technology, an issue at the center of Washington's dispute with Beijing.

But she also said policymakers for too long have ignored the people harmed by globalization, which tends to be good for "the educated, urban, younger people."

The key, she said, is to recognize that "inequalities are a drag on multilateralism and drag on growth."

- Raising carbon taxes -

Meanwhile, Georgieva said addressing the climate change crisis will require a change in national tax systems that includes a big ramp-up in levies on carbon emissions.

"It is a crisis where no one is immune and everyone has a responsibility to act," she said.

"Limiting global warming to a safe level requires a significantly higher carbon price," she said.

But she added that "the key here is to change tax systems, not simply add a new tax."

At the current average carbon price of $2 a ton, there is little incentive to make a transition to new forms of energy.

These new tax revenues could be used to mitigate damage and "also support investments in the clean energy infrastructure that will help the planet heal," she said.


Related Links
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US unemployment falls to 50-year low of 3.5% in September
Washington (AFP) Oct 4, 2019
America's jobless rate tumbled in September to its lowest level in 50 years, according to government data released Friday, delighting the White House even though it may not assuage recession fears as President Donald Trump's trade wars persist. Meanwhile, with a strong dollar and slowing global economy, the US trade deficit widened in August, as the trade conflicts ate into export growth. Trump immediately cheered the good jobs data, claiming his economic record should shield him from efforts to ... read more

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