The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has raised fears of turbulence in the nuclear-armed nation but observers said a dynastic succession is underway and that strife is unlikely for the time being.

Analysts said Monday's announcements on North Korean state media, which revealed Kim had died two days previously at age 69, made it clear his youngest son and heir apparent Kim Jong-Un is firmly in power -- at least for now.

But some North Korea-watchers cautioned of risks ahead if the young and inexperienced Jong-Un feels the need to prove his military mettle by deploying the kind of aggressive tactics that helped keep his father in power.

State media in Pyongyang have urged people to rally round the leadership of Jong-Un, who is aged in his late 20s, with the state news agency dubbing him the "great successor".

"The Kim Jong-Un era has already started," said Paik Hak-Soon of Seoul's Sejong Institute think-tank.

"This clearly indicates that Jong-Un is already firmly in power, and all key officials under Kim Jong-Il have decided for the past two days since Kim's death to support Jong-Un as the new leader," he added.

"The North's top guys have already sorted out everything, and the regime seems to be stable under the new leadership. I don't expect any major turbulence or power struggle within the regime in the foreseeable future.

Little is known about the young man now expected to extend the Kim dynasty into a third generation, other than that he attended a Swiss school and reportedly likes skiing and Hollywood tough guy Jean-Claude Van Damme.

Kim Jong-Un had little public profile until his father suffered a stroke in 2008, forcing succession plans to be accelerated.

In September 2010 the son was handed senior ruling party posts and made a four-star general, despite his lack of any military experience. Since then, he has been constantly at his father's side.

Kim Jong-Il's powerful brother-in-law Jang Song-Thaek may act as the son's mentor as he finds his feet, say analysts who note that North Korea's elites have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.

"For a while the military and Kim's family will try to uphold Kim Jong-Un as their leader and unite around him," said Baek Seung-Joo of the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses, adding that the North had fully prepared for Kim's death.

But the new leader, who comes into the job with a host of challenges including severe food shortages in a nation which has seen deadly famine in the past, is not expected to take on an ambitious agenda.

"Kim Jong-Un is not expected to seek any drastic policy change while trying to cement his leadership. He will try to share power or set up a strategic alliance with top military leaders," Baek said.

"A power struggle is possible in the future, creating an obstacle to his succession because Jong-Un did not secure full public support," he said, adding that the lack of popular backing made him vulnerable.

Relations with South Korea have been icy since two deadly border incidents blamed on the North last year.

Michael Green, of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there was a risk of similar confrontations ahead.

"The danger now is that Kim Jong-Un feels under pressure to demonstrate his legitimacy with nuclear tests or military provocations," Green said.

But Green said he expected calm for the time being at least, as North Korea focuses on mourning.

Bruce Klingner of the US Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington think-tank, said Kim's death raises real concerns about stability.

"North Korean provocative behaviour or military action is unlikely in the near-term," Klingner said.

"However, Seoul and Washington will be wary that Kim Jong-Un... may feel it necessary in the future to precipitate a crisis to prove his mettle to other senior leaders or to generate a 'rally around the flag' effect."

Paik agreed the new leadership was unlikely to take a confrontational approach towards the United States and South Korea for some time.

"It needs lots of aid and daily necessities to provide to its people to mark the major political anniversary in 2012," he said, referring to the 100th anniversary of the birth of founding president Kim Il-Sung.

News of the death came amid intensified diplomatic efforts to revive dormant six-nation negotiations on the North's nuclear programme.

"Regarding nuclear talks, the North will also likely take a more cooperative stance to get what they want," Paik said.

"They will probably come forward to renew negotiations with the US once the mourning period is over."

Scenarios as North Korea faces succession challenge
Seoul (AFP) Dec 19, 2011 - The shock announcement Monday of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il's death has raised fears of turbulence in the nuclear-armed nation which has been plunged into a second dynastic succession.

Kim's youngest son Kim Jong-Un has been declared in state media as the nation's next leader but little is known about him or his path to power.

Following are some scenarios of how events might unfold.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

Kim Jong-Il's body is to lie in state in Kumsusan palace where the embalmed body of his father -- Kim Il-Sung, the founder and "eternal leader" of North Korea who died in 1994 -- is on display.

After Kim's funeral on December 28, thoughts will turn to the succession but there are few details as to how it will be carried out. Kim Jong-Un's status as heir apparent was only made clear in September 2010.

Even Kim Jong-Il, who was openly groomed for the leadership and designated as successor some 14 years before his own father died, did not formally take over the leadership of the ruling party for three years afterwards.

WHO IS IN CHARGE?

The workings of the North Korean leadership -- which managed to keep the leader's death a secret for two days -- are notoriously opaque.

But all the signs so far are that Kim Jong-Un is being installed as the nation's new leader under the guidance of his aunt and uncle who will act as his mentors and as a backstop for a young man with no power base of his own.

Jang Song-Thaek, husband of Kim Jong-Il's only sibling Kim Kyong-Hui, expanded his influence rapidly after the leader suffered a stroke in 2008, forcing the succession plans to be accelerated.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

North Korea has a track record of erratic and aggressive behaviour which has alarmed its neighbours and the international community.

Some observers are fearful that the young leader, who has little public profile and no military experience despite being made a four-star general last year, may show his mettle with nuclear tests or military provocations.

Relations with South Korea have been icy since two deadly border incidents blamed on the North last year, which were rumoured to be linked to a show of force by Kim as he tried to ensure his son's succession.

COULD NORTH KOREA IMPLODE?

Many experts believe that North Korea's elites have a powerful vested interest in maintaining the status quo, and that they are not likely to rock the boat unless they have to.

Analysts say turbulence is unlikely, at least in the short term. However, if Kim Jong-Un fails and a messy power struggle ensues, North Korea heads into uncharted territory.

In the meantime, the new leader, who comes into the job with a host of challenges including severe food shortages in a nation which has seen famine in the past, is not expected to adopt an ambitious agenda.

WHY DOES NORTH KOREA MATTER?

North Korea is a formidable enemy, with some 1.19 million men under arms, as well as an arsenal of chemical and conventional weapons including thousands of short- and medium-range missiles.

It has also test-launched Taepodong missiles in its quest for an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially strike the United States.

Most estimates say the North has enough plutonium to build six to eight atomic weapons, but it is unclear whether it can make nuclear warheads for its missiles.

Efforts to denuclearise North Korea through six-nation talks including the US and China have dominated regional diplomacy in recent years.

WHAT WILL OTHER COUNTRIES DO?

The North's main ally China is expected to do its utmost to shore up its isolated neighbour, amid fears Jong-Un has not had enough time to cement control over the country's government and military.

Beijing is worried that if the North Korea regime were to collapse, China could be flooded with millions of refugees.

Japan and South Korea's nervousness over the stunning news was reflected as Seoul put its military on alert and the government in Tokyo held an emergency security meeting.

The United States made little immediate comment, but swiftly closed ranks with its ally South Korea, with President Barack Obama calling his close friend President Lee Myung-Bak to discuss the development.