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NATO offers Turkey solidarity but no pledges after Syria troop losses
By Damon WAKE
Brussels (AFP) Feb 28, 2020

NATO on Friday offered solidarity and support to Ankara after at least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syria -- but no pledges of concrete new measures to defend Turkey's forces.

The alliance's ruling council held urgent talks at Turkey's request after Thursday's deadly air strike in Syria's northwestern Idlib province sent tensions soaring.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said allies had agreed to maintain measures already in place to bolster Turkey's air defences.

But he gave no hint of new steps beyond a general pledge to see what more could be done.

"NATO allies provide support for Turkey today. We augment their air defences, we have AWACS planes helping to patrol the skies and we also have port visits and provide support in other ways," he said.

"But allies are constantly looking into what more they can do to provide further support for Turkey."

A spokesman for the Turkish presidency earlier called for a no-fly zone to protect civilians in Idlib, where President Bashar al-Assad is seeking to wipe out the last rebel stronghold.

Assad's forces backed by Russian air strikes have since December clawed back chunks of the Idlib region, forcing close to a million people to flee their homes and shelters.

Stoltenberg condemned Damascus and Moscow and urged them to end the violence in Idlib.

- 'Stop the attacks' -

"We call on Russia and the Assad regime to stop the attacks, to stop the indiscriminate air attacks and also to engage and support UN-led efforts to find a lasting, political, peaceful solution to the crisis in Syria," he said.

The European Union's diplomatic chief Josep Borrell echoed the call for de-escalation, warning the crisis could spiral out of control.

"There is a risk of sliding into a major open international military confrontation. It is also causing unbearable humanitarian suffering and putting civilians in danger," he said.

NATO called the meeting on Friday under Article 4 of the alliance's charter under which any member can request talks if they believe their "territorial integrity, political independence or security" is threatened.

It is distinct from the alliance's Article 5 mutual self-defence pact, which refers to an attack on any member's territory.

The losses in Idlib come after weeks of growing tensions between Ankara and Damascus-ally Moscow. They bring to 53 the number of Turkish security personnel killed in the province this month.

Ankara has called talks under Article 4 a number of times in recent years -- twice in 2012, including after one of its jets was shot down by Syrian forces, and once in 2015 after a spate of terror attacks in Turkey.

After the 2012 incidents NATO agreed to deploy Patriot missile batteries in Turkey as a defensive measure.

Could Russia go to war with Turkey in Syria?
Moscow (AFP) Feb 28, 2020 - Russia has no appetite for a military confrontation with Turkey in Idlib but the Kremlin won't step back from its support for the Syrian regime's campaign to regain control of the province.

The killing of 33 soldiers by fire from forces of Russia's ally the Syrian regime -- the biggest Turkish military loss on the battlefield in recent years -- raised fears of war between the two historic rivals.

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin of Russia were quick to hold telephone talks and plan a summit as soon as next week in Moscow, with Russian officials striking a conciliatory tone.

The two men -- both leading post-imperial societies they took over in the wake of economic crises -- have since 2016 forged an alliance that has riled the West and will be wary of undermining it for now.

"Russia is definitely not looking for a full-scale military confrontation with Turkey, nor is Turkey interested in confronting Moscow over Idlib," said Igor Delanoe, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow.

"The stakes are too high, especially for Ankara, considering all the economic leverage Moscow has in its hands to retaliate," he told AFP.

Russia has built the TurkStream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, is constructing Turkey's first nuclear power plant and above all has delivered an S-400 air defence system in a move that horrified NATO, of which Turkey is a key member.

Delanoe said Moscow believed Ankara had failed to comply with a 2018 agreement on Idlib to root out more extreme rebel fighters and the incident had given Turkey a taste of "what could be the cost of a military adventure in Idlib".

- 'No step back soon' -

The incident came as tensions soared after Erdogan -- who has vowed not to take a step back in Idlib -- gave Syrian forces a February 29 deadline to pull back from their positions.

Idlib is the last remaining rebel bastion in Syria and Turkey wants to keep its influence over the area even once Syria's civil war ends.

Yet this is an obstacle to Moscow's ambition of seeing President Bashar al-Assad regain control of the entire country and confirming the greatest Russian military victory of the post-Soviet era.

Moscow-based expert on Turkey-Russia relations Kerim Has said that Russia's "long-term strategy" for Syria had not changed but it was keen not to antagonise Turkey, especially given the closeness of economic and energy ties as well as the cooperation on the S-400s.

"A full military confrontation in Syria is now less possible" after a day of intense diplomacy, he told AFP, while warning that "risks are brimming on the ground" and any clash could send tensions spiralling again.

"Russia is going to continue its operations in Idlib. It is not going to take a step back soon," he added.

While Russian officials were careful not to provoke Turkey any further, the Kremlin said the Turkish troops were not manning observation points agreed under a 2018 deal but positioned among armed groups deemed by Moscow to be "terrorists".

- 'Worst-case scenario' -

Relations between modern Russia and Turkey -- whose predecessor empires fought centuries of wars over influence in the Black Sea region -- have swung back and forth over the last years.

There were fears of military confrontation in November 2015 when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane over Syria. But a reconciliation deal was clinched in 2016 and Putin rapidly backed Erdogan when he faced a coup bid that summer.

Even the assassination of Russia's ambassador to Ankara in December 2016 by an off-duty police officer did not derail the intensification of ties as both sides began a joint effort to bring peace to Syria.

Alexey Khlebnikov, Middle East Analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council, founded by the Kremlin to advise on foreign policy issues, said that while risks existed, a direct confrontation was the "worst-case scenario".

He said Russia's immediate priority was not to have Damascus retake all of Idlib but to have the strategic M4 and M5 highways under Syrian army control.

"So far, all indicators show that the two countries are ready for de-escalation," he said, but added: "The risks of an incidental escalation are way higher now. An escalation might happen and we can't rule it out."


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Egocentric US is wrecking global arms control, says Russia
Geneva (AFP) Feb 25, 2020
The US is following an egocentric foreign policy that is leading to global arms control agreements being devalued, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday. It is vital "to stop the degradation of international arms control", Lavrov told the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, urging Washington to resume talks on halting nuclear proliferation and banning weapons in space. "We are seeing a return to dangerous destructive trends caused by the revival of aggressive foreign policy ego ... read more

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