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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Much-needed global 'rebalancing' stuck: IMF
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Nov 11, 2011


A much-needed global rebalancing of demand to propel economic recovery is "stuck in midstream," according to an International Monetary Fund report released Friday.

In the report prepared for the November 3-4 G20 summit in Cannes, the IMF said that two important shifts necessary to restore global sustainable economic growth and strengthen the financial system were not moving ahead.

The first "rebalancing" is a move inside countries from state-driven demand to the private sector.

The second, which seems to point most directly at the deeply imbalanced US-China trade relationship, calls for countries with current account deficits to shift from internal demand to external demand, and, conversely, those with surpluses to strengthen domestic demand rather than focus on selling things to outside markets.

"The 'dual rebalancing' acts, however, are stuck in midstream," the IMF told the G20, exacerbating the fragility of the global economy.

While governments are cutting spending to overcome their fiscal deficits, it pointed out, private demand in the form of investment and consumption is not filling the gap, slowing growth when it needs to pick up.

It said this is in part due to new shocks, like Japan's March 11 earthquake/tsunami disaster, and to the eurozone turmoil.

"At the same time, global demand rebalancing has stalled, as domestic demand in key surplus countries has not accelerated because underlying impediments remain unaddressed."

The result is to exacerbate continuing weaknesses in the global economy and financial sector, "posing risks to financial stability," the report said.

"Thus, understanding large imbalances within and across countries has taken on renewed importance," it said, summing up the glum assessment.

"Policy makers need to move with a greater sense of urgency on reaching an agreement on policies that will reduce imbalances and lay the foundation for restoring the global economy to health."

The report said both Japan and the United States had not made adequate progress on righting their huge budget deficit and debt burdens, while China, a huge surplus economy, was preventing the appreciation of its currency, which could help in the rebalancing effort by boosting its foreign and domestic demand.

"To offset weaker demand in major advanced partner countries, internal demand will need to increase elsewhere, notably China (and other surplus countries in the G-20) to support domestic and global growth."

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IMF chief: Japan should prioritise reducing debt
Tokyo (AFP) Nov 12, 2011 - IMF chief Christine Lagarde on Saturday said Japan should make reducing its mammoth public debt a priority, while adding that its recent unilateral currency intervention was "in the spirit" of the G7.

Japan's "priorities going forward are the swift implementation of reconstruction spending, and the adoption of a strong medium-term plan to reduce public debt," the International Monetary Fund managing director said.

In Tokyo, Lagarde met Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and financial services minister Shozaburo Jimi, before leaving for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Hawaii.

At more than 200 percent of GDP, Japan's debt is the world's highest after years of pump-priming measures by governments trying in vain to arrest the economy's long decline.

Much of government spending is swallowed up by a social security system catering to a rapidly ageing population, while entrenched deflation and the feeble economy have made it hard for lawmakers to curb borrowing.

The former French finance minister warned that if the eurozone's debt crisis worsens further, Asia will feel the effect through trade and financial impacts.

The situation has sent shockwaves through global markets and seen investment flowing into the Japanese yen, regarded as a safe haven in times of volatility, pushing it to post-World War II highs against the dollar and recent 10-year highs versus the euro.

Tokyo has faced domestic pressure to act as the strong unit makes domestically produced goods less competitive and erodes exporters' repatriated profits, prompting fears of job losses if more firms shift production overseas as the nation seeks to recover from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan in October launched its fourth yen-selling intervention in just over a a year to weaken the unit.

The unilateral move raised eyebrows as it demonstrated the absence of a coordinated currency policy between the Group of 20 nations of the world's largest economies.

However, Lagarde said the intervention was "in the spirit" of G7 efforts against volatility.

"Concerted action is the most efficient way of intervening," she said.

But she added: "The Japanese intervention was done with a view to avoiding disorder and excessive volatility on the markets and that is very much in the spirit of communiques and statements by the G7 on such matters."



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Beijing (AFP) Nov 10, 2011
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