The incident off the northern Cabo Delgado province on Monday was reported separately by a local news platform but denied by a government spokesman.
ACLED, an independent global group that gets information from networks of local sources, told AFP that the fishing community was targeted while camped on the tiny Rolas islet, about eight kilometres (five miles) off the coast.
"Some patrol boats used by FADM (Mozambique Defence Armed Forces) approached the island from Ibo island where they're based ... and apparently came on shore and opened fire on them," ACLED analyst Peter Bofin told AFP.
The independent monitor knew of "at least 16 fatalities," he said.
Mozambican forces deployed in Cabo Delgado to stem a deadly Islamic State-linked insurgency have already been accused of violence against civilians in their operations.
Mozambique defence ministry spokesman Benjamim Chabualo denied the latest claim, telling AFP, "It is not true that the armed forces killed fishermen."
"The armed forces cannot attack fishermen, nor do they do so," he said. "They are there to protect."
ACLED reported at least three similar incidents in July and August in the same area, where jihadist insurgents have a strong presence, Bofin said.
In one, five people were killed on August 22 when "soldiers on a FADM naval vessel opened fire on two civilian vessels near Pequeue in Macomia", ACLED's report said. The FADM denied involvement.
"We are seeing in recent weeks a pattern of essentially any boats at sea being attacked by part of the navy off the Macomia coast on the assumption that they are insurgents," Bofin told AFP.
"But the communities that are living on the coast are maritime communities that get around by boat."
Insurgent attacks have recently picked up in Cabo Delgado, where construction on a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas project operated by French energy giant TotalEnergies has been stalled since a deadly assault in 2021.
jcb/br/giv
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