The communist state last week notified international aviation and maritime agencies that it will launch a communications satellite between April 4-8.

Seoul and Washington say this is a pretext to test its Taepodong-2 missile -- the first one technically capable of reaching the US mainland. It would be the third long-range missile test since 1998.

The announcement sparked international criticism but analysts say tougher UN sanctions are unlikely to follow.

Even if they do, the North could endure some short-term pain for the long-term gain of a valuable bargaining chip.

"The satellite launch is a similar and effective tack to that used by North Korea in 1998," said Kim Yong-Hyun, a North Korea studies professor at Seoul's Dongguk University.

That launch involving a Taepodong-1 missile failed to put a satellite into orbit, but the second stage flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific more than 1,600 kilometres (1,000 miles) from the launch site.

The launch sparked deep alarm in Japan and international censure but the United States resumed missile negotiations with the North seven months later.

Then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright made a historic visit to Pyongyang in 2000.

In July 2006 the North tested its Taepodong-2 for the first time but it failed after 40 seconds. Three months later it staged an underground nuclear weapons test.

The UN passed resolutions imposing limited sanctions and again the criticism was harsh. However, in February 2007 the United States and four negotiating partners reached a landmark accord with Pyongyang, offering aid and diplomatic benefits in return for nuclear disarmament.

Negotiations are currently stalled but the United States and its partners are trying to restart them.

"North Korea is using a satellite launch as a very effective bargaining chip, which it believes can solve all pending problems, economic or political," Kim said.

"North Korea had high expectations when (US President Barack) Obama took office. But Obama has failed to satisfy such expectations, by treating North Korea as a secondary issue.

"The satellite launch is intended to maximise its influence in negotiations with US," Kim told AFP.

"Normalisation of relations with the US is the key to North Korea's survival."

Internally, he said, the launch will mark the start of leader Kim Jong-Il's "third term" -- following his third election to the rubber-stamp legislature -- and would help strengthen solidarity among the people.

Scott Snyder, director of the Center for US-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation in Washington, said the North "has long used crisis escalation tactics in combination with brinkmanship as a way of preparing for negotiations" and signalling strength to its counterpart.

Domestically, he told AFP, the missile test would be a "display of national power" and a way of rallying the masses.

Paik Hak-Soon of Seoul's Sejong Institute said a launch "will give the North a substantial playing card in future negotiations with the US."

The North "finds it crucial to demonstrate its nuclear capability combined with a delivery system."

In practice, he said, implementing UN sanctions would be hard to achieve since the resolutions passed against the North relate to missiles and not a space launch.

Dongguk University's Kim said China and Russia remain lukewarm on any new sanctions and Washington has no proper means to punish North Korea.

UN sanctions tend to come with loopholes and the North has grown nearly immune to penalties, Yang Moo-Jin, of Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, told Yonhap news agency recently.

"Pain will be short, but a missile test will up the ante in the long term when North Korea later negotiates with the United States over its nuclear weapons programmes," Yang said.

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Lusaka, Zambia, April 29, 2009
Pakistan is a weak country, close to being ungovernable, to the extent that too many elements within its society do not really recognize the legitimacy of popularly elected leaders.