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TERROR WARS
Killing top IS leaders not enough to cripple group, say experts
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Dec 19, 2014


Qaeda in Syria seizes tanks, APCs from army: monitor
Beirut (AFP) Dec 19, 2014 - Al-Qaeda fighters in Syria seized dozens of tanks and armoured personnel carriers from the army when they took two regime bases this week, a monitor said on Friday.

Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda's Syria branch, captured the Wadi al-Deif and Hamidiyeh military posts in the northwestern province of Idlib on Monday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The Britain-based group, which relies on a network of sources on the ground, had said in an earlier report that nearly 200 combatants on both sides were killed in a 24-hour battle for the bases.

Al-Nusra Front fighters, backed by allied Islamist insurgents, captured at least 120 soldiers, the Observatory said at the time.

On Friday, it reported that the jihadists also seized 35 tanks and 20 armoured personnel carriers "stuffed with ammunition".

IS threatens to execute Lebanese soldiers held hostage
Beirut (AFP) Dec 19, 2014 - A French-speaking jihadist threatened Friday to execute Lebanese soldiers held hostage by the Islamic State group, saying three prominent anti-IS Lebanese politicians would be responsible for their deaths.

The threat was made in a video AFP obtained from a Salafist cleric, Wissam al-Masri, who is mediating the release of 25 police and soldiers held by IS and the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, the Al-Nusra Front.

Four hostages have already been executed.

The video, filmed in a field with hills in the background, shows three men in blue uniforms, each kneeling in front of a fighter holding a knife to his throat.

The unidentified speaker, was wearing a hood and his companions' faces were uncovered. From his speech, it was not possible to determine if he was from Lebanon, where French is widely spoken, or a third country.

Thousands of fighters from France and countries in North Africa where French is spoken have flocked to IS ranks.

The speaker attacked the politicians for what he said is their support for Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, whose fighters are aiding Syrian President Bashar Assad in the civil war against largely Sunni Muslim rebels that include IS.

"To the allies of France in Lebanon -- Hariri, Geagea and Jumblatt -- the Islamic State is at war with Hezbollah, which is meddling in the affairs of Muslims in Shams (Syria) and has killed our women and our children," he says.

He was referring to Sunni former prime minister Saad Hariri, right-wing Christian leader Samir Geagea and Walid Jumblatt, chief of the Druze community in Lebanon.

"You are certainly criminals, but you have added to your crimes today by your collaboration with Hezbollah and your transformation of the Lebanese army into a mere puppet in the hands of Hezbollah, with which it oppresses Sunnis."

IS is a radical Sunni organisation that considers Shiite Muslims to be heretics. It has murdered many of them in a campaign of atrocities in areas under its control in Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

"You are therefore responsible for the fate of your fellow citizens. Their future, their life and death, depends on your next decision," he said without making any specific demands of the three men.

However, the jihadists have demanded that Islamist prisoners held in Lebanese jails be released in exchange for the hostages.

Masri told AFP that he had met with IS leaders Thursday in Qalamoun, Syria, near the Lebanese border and seen nine of the soldiers.

"Two of them are in a very fragile state of health," he said.

Lebanon has tried to insulate itself from the effects of the war in neighbouring Syria, but has been wracked by increasing instability and spillover from the nearly four-year conflict.

Last week, Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam said 16 police and soldiers were still being held by Al-Nusra, and nine by IS.

The Pentagon has hailed the deaths of several top leaders of the Islamic State group, but experts say this is far from enough to cripple what has proven to be a resilient organisation.

US officials say air strikes have killed several senior and mid-level jihadists including Abu Muslim al-Turkmani, the right hand man of IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, dealing a serious blow to the group's operations.

But analysts warn that disruptions of this type are often fleeting and that the US-led coalition needs to look beyond their military campaign to weaken the group that has become the world's most feared jihadist organisation since proclaiming a "caliphate" straddling Syria and Iraq six months ago.

"Eliminating key leaders is a means to disrupt plots and degrade capabilities. But they do not defeat or destroy terrorist organisations," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA agent and adviser to US President Barack Obama who is now a leading terrorism expert.

"Al-Qaeda in Iraq lost its top leadership twice but still thrived sufficiently to give birth to the Islamic State."

Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby said strikes against the group's leadership were disrupting the jihadists' "ability to command and control current operations against" Iraqi federal and Kurdish forces.

But the real impact is hard to quantify, especially as the command structure of the Islamic State group is largely a mystery to intelligence services, with its members masters at disguising themselves through a multitude of false identities, nicknames and noms de guerre.

And the Western view of a pyramid-like command structure with a supreme leader, deputies and cascading line of subordinates does not take into account a reality where tribal, regional, cultural and historical ties often take precedence.

Even if jihadist supremo Baghdadi was killed, this would not see the ideology that spurred the creation of the so-called caliphate crumble overnight.

"If Baghdadi is out of the picture before his caliphate is firmly established, the Islamic State group will be seriously challenged, but with resourceful lieutenants in charge, it will not be finished without a further fight," said Michael Ryan of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

US officials have been open about the limits of the military operation and have warned the West will have to dig in for the long haul to combat IS.

Military chief General Martin Dempsey recently told the US Senate that IS would "ultimately be defeated when their cloak of religious legitimacy is stripped away and the population on which they have imposed themselves reject them.

"Our actions are intended to move in that direction. This will require a sustained effort over an extended period of time. It is a generational problem, and we should expect that our enemies will adapt their tactics as we adjust our approach."

Kuwait court jails 3 Islamic State supporters
Kuwait City (AFP) Dec 19, 2014 - A Kuwaiti court has jailed three Arab supporters of the Islamic State jihadist group, in a first for the Gulf emirate, newspapers reported Friday.

The court sentenced a Kuwaiti to 10 years in jail for urging support for the group and also for insulting Kuwait's ruler in public.

An Egyptian and a Jordanian were handed four-year terms for helping him distribute pro-IS leaflets, local media reports said, quoting Thursday's ruling.

The verdicts can be appealed but the men are in currently in prison.

It was the first such Kuwaiti court ruling against supporters of IS, the target of US-led air strikes in Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

Kuwaiti courts are examining two similar cases.

In September, police arrested several suspected IS members under the Gulf state's commitment to the US-led coalition against the jihadists.

Dozens of Kuwaitis have fought alongside rebel groups in Syria battling President Bashar al-Assad's regime, and a number have been killed in the conflict.


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