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SHAKE AND BLOW
Japan's volcanoes: Could Fuji be next?
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) Sept 29, 2014


Sudden eruption of Japanese volcano very rare: expert
Paris (AFP) Sept 29, 2014 - The suddenness of the eruption of Japan's Mount Ontake volcano is an extremely rare phenomenon which makes it impossible to take precautionary measures, French volcanologist Jacques-Marie Bardintzeff told AFP Sunday.

After 35 years without a major eruption, the 3,067-metre (10,121-foot) volcano in central Japan reawakened on Saturday, spewing a deadly blanket of ash, rocks and steam down slopes popular with hikers.

Bardintzeff, of the Universities of Paris-Sud Orsay and Cergy-Pontoise, said in an interview that such sudden eruptions were rare.

"In general when a volcano becomes actives, certainly after 30 or 40 years (of dormancy) which is short, we normally expect 24 to 72 hours of warning, The magma moves, micro-seismic movement is registered.. there are changes in temperature."

Normally that is enough time to alert people living in the area to evacuate or to ban access to the site in a tourist area, he explained.

However eruptions which occur with only minutes of warning are not unknown.

The Ontake eruption, in which more than 30 people are feared to have died, was not only sudden but was particularly dangerous as there were so many people about on a busy weekend.

The mountain is popular with hikers, particularly in late September when the autumn colours make for dramatic scenery.

"A combination of factors turn this into a catastrophe," said Bardintzeff, adding that there were different explanations for the unexpected eruption.

"The magma could have found a crack which allowed it to rise up in a single stroke. This is very rare."

There is also another feared type of eruption called hydrovolcanic or phreatomagmatic eruptions.

"Often there are pockets of water in volcanoes. When the magma rises and a wave of heat accompanies it. The water can be quickly vaporised, creating high pressure like in a pressure cooker.

"If this pressure is greater than the resistance of the earth above it, all the rocks are pulverised into fragments known as cinder bombs," the volcanologist explained.

This type of eruption is particularly dangerous precisely because of the speed of events, with no real signs of what is about to happen.

Without more sophisticated seismological equipment than is currently available "unfortunately we are helpless," in such cases, Bardintzeff said.

For the time being no hypothesis has been confirmed as the reason behind the sudden Japanese eruption.

Mount Ontake is a classic Japanese volcano, he explained.

"Japan is a land of volcanoes, with a complex geodynamic system. There are many which erupt in turn."

They are usually of an explosive nature and the plumes of ash and smoke 11 kilometres high, seen in the latest case, are reasonably standard, he added.

"What is exceptional is the fact that it was so sudden."

The sudden eruption of Mount Ontake over the weekend, which is believed to have killed at least 31 people, was a reminder of Japan's vulnerability to its many active volcanoes.

Gas continued to pour from the ruptured crater Monday, as emergency workers tried to reach the bodies of hikers trapped on the peak when it spat into life.

Ontake is one of 110 live volcanoes dotted throughout the seismically-active country, including Mount Fuji, the country's tallest mountain and a UNESCO World Heritage Site that welcomes some 300,000 walkers each year.

Fuji's location just 100 kilometres (60 miles) from Tokyo adds an extra element of concern to its inclusion on the list of 47 volcanoes believed to be at risk of eruption in the coming century.

While Japanese authorities watch them closely for signs of activity, rare and unpredictable events such as the sudden eruption of Ontake, which had been largely quiescent for 35 years, bring home the impossibility of out-guessing Mother Nature.

"What happened on Saturday was beyond our current prediction methods," said Toshitsugu Fujii, head of the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Before it began spewing a deadly blanket of ash, rocks and steam, Mount Ontake had a Level One warning attached, the lowest on a five-point risk scale.

A Level Five warning requires the evacuation of nearby towns, but Level One -- currently held by Mount Fuji -- means no particular restrictions for hikers.

Mount Ontake has now been raised to Level Three, and people have been advised not to approach.

- Emergency plan -

According to a government study published in June, 80 percent of inhabited areas threatened by the effects of a potential nearby volcanic eruption have no evacuation plan.

Shizuoka Prefecture, home to Mount Fuji, is preparing for the possible rude awakening of its star attraction with an emergency procedure for local residents posted online.

It has also created an interactive website that simulates various paths red-hot lava might take in an eruption.

"For now we see no particular signs of activity, but a big eruption would result in more serious consequences and damage than other volcanoes, affecting many regions including Tokyo and its surrounding prefectures," warns the 60-page evacuation plan produced by Shizuoka Prefecture in February.

In addition to the danger to those living nearby, Fuji's eruption could cut off the main rail and road routes between Tokyo and Osaka, resulting in huge disruption to the national economy.

Earthquakes in Japan, which sits at the meeting place of four of the Earth's tectonic plates, can trigger the eruption of volatile summits like Ontake, said Fujii.

"A very strong earthquake like that seen on 11 March 2011 (which caused a catastrophic tsunami) can heighten the risk of volcanic eruptions in the region due to an accumulation of magma," he said in 2012.

And that's just what happened the last time Fuji blew its top.

On 12 December 1707, just 49 days after a violent quake of magnitude 8.6 hit southern Japan, an explosive eruption of a vehemence rarely seen in history occurred there.

That eruption of Mount Fuji flung ash and smoke as high as 23 kilometres into the air, scientists have calculated.

This ash cloud blocked out sunlight as far away as Edo (now Tokyo) and formed a large new crater on the mountainside.

No deaths were reported from the eruption itself, which had no lava flow, but the ash covered farmland in the surrounding area, resulting in localised starvation.

Currently, four of the 47 volcanoes under surveillance are at alert level three, five at level two (danger near the crater), with the rest at level one or classed as without risk.

Of particular worry to vulcanologists at the Japan Meteorological Agency are the islands of Miyakejima, Iwoto and Nishinoshima.

.


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SHAKE AND BLOW
31 dead in Japan volcano eruption
Otaki, Japan (AFP) Sept 28, 2014
More than 30 hikers were feared dead after being found Sunday near the peak of a Japanese volcano which erupted without warning, spewing ash, rocks and steam. Rescue workers battling rocketing levels of sulphurous gas found them in "cardiac arrest" near the summit of 3,067-metre (10,121-foot) Mount Ontake, which erupted around noon on Saturday, police and local officials said. The term i ... read more


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