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NUKEWARS
Iran sanctions raise questions about info
by Staff Writers
Brussels (UPI) Dec 2, 2011

UN sanctions against Iran 'exhausted': Russia envoy
United Nations (AFP) Dec 2, 2011 - Russia believes new UN sanctions against Iran's nuclear program are no longer possible, Moscow's UN envoy said Friday condemning "threats" being made against Tehran and Syria by the West.

"We believe that the sanctions track in the Security Council has been exhausted," ambassador Vitaly Churkin told a press conference when asked about possible action against Iran.

"We continue to believe very strongly that negotiations should continue with Iran."

The European Union and United States have both ordered new sanctions against Iran after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report said there were "credible" signs of military dimensions to Iran's nuclear drive.

Russia was "upset" with the report, Churkin said, adding the IAEA analysis had been "played up more as a PR exercise than a serious nuclear effort."

Russia has signed up so far to four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran's nuclear and missile programs. Russia and China have made it known however that they oppose new measures.

But Churkin said "we believe that the negotiated track can be resumed" and his country had made repeated attempts to get contacts restarted between Iran and the international group on the nuclear showdown: Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

The envoy said the West had to pull back from confrontation with Iran and Syria.

"The confrontation scenario is being played out not only with regard to Syria but with regard to Iran as well. All those threats and insinuations of possible military action against Iran, they don't help at all."

Western diplomats say that despite the IAEA report on Iran it could take months to get talk of new action in the Security Council. Russia and China vetoed a European resolution in October condemning the Syrian government's crackdown on opposition protests.


European furor over Iran's nuclear program and tightening sanctions on the country have raised new questions about the quality and quantity of information that is influencing the decision-making in the West.

The questions being asked are: Is the information about Iran complete and unbiased? Is the economic analysis sound? Will the sanctions work the way they are meant to? Or will they end up strengthening those in power, as they have done in Cuba, Zimbabwe, Libya under late Moammar Gadhafi, even North Korea?

"If the analysis of a country, is wrong the policy prescriptions are bound to be wrong, too," said a Guardian newspaper analysis by a University of London academic, Arshin Adib-Moghaddam.

"Afghanistan and Iraq are very good examples of that relationship between the absence of sound knowledge on a country and strategic failure," said the article.

In November Britain slapped wide-ranging sanctions on banking with Iran, blocking nearly all economic activity between the two countries.

Iranians retaliated by ransacking the embassy in Tehran. Youth groups in the country disowned the attack, saying it was instigated or inspired by government elements. Britain shut the embassy, expelled Iranian diplomats but stopped short of severing diplomatic ties. France, Germany and the Netherlands recalled their ambassadors in token support for Britain.

Analysts called it a familiar scenario. Every country singled out for international or multilateral sanctions has been able to continue financial operations in Europe via backstreet banks in full knowledge of governments, though public limitations hit businesses, families, students and ordinary citizens.

As British sanctions are soon to be followed by EU sanctions, businesses, research organizations and universities are bracing for huge financial losses.

Iran, meanwhile, has gone elsewhere with its business and is doing very well financially despite many years of sanctions, data from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank indicated.

The World Bank put Iran's economic growth at 3.0 percent in 2010 and the IMF said the country's nominal gross domestic product grew from $330.5 billion in 2009 to $360 billion in 2010.

An IMF team that visited Iran commended the government for early successes with a subsidy reform program, advances in the financial sector and a buoyant stock market.

A U.N. Conference on Trade and Development report said foreign direct investment in Iran increased exponentially from $1.6 billion in 2008 to $3.6 billion in 2010.

Those data suggest another side to the Iran story that is "subdued for ideological reasons," Adib-Moghaddam said in The Guardian article.

He said both the United States and European Union could be "disqualifying themselves from the Iranian market" while "China and Russia say 'thank you.'"

Iran's current trade ties, its thriving exchanges with willing substitutes for traditional Western partners, are increasingly reflected in the diplomatic wrangles over further sanctions against Tehran. Major trade partners China and Russia have resisted West-backed measures or sought to water down sanctions against Tehran.

This week the EU laid out plans for a possible embargo on Iranian oil as it broadened sanctions to target 180 individuals and organizations it linked to the state shipping line and the Revolutionary Guards Corps, which the EU suspects of involvement in a covert nuclear weapons program.

Greece raised the first voice of dissent, saying it worried about future oil supplies. Iran exports less than one-third of its oil to EU partners. The EU says it will stop the imports once it finds alternative suppliers, possibly in early 2012.

Many analysts agree that both the furor over Iran's nuclear program and the tightening sanctions have prompted the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to stoke up nationalism and become more entrenched.

Aside from the economic realities, Adib-Moghaddam said, prophesies of "the impending demise of the Islamic republic" were "comparable to similar predictions about the downfall of the Castros who have been in power in Cuba for almost six decades now."

He called assessments that the Islamic republic may be collapsing "ideologically opportunistic and remote from the political realities in the country."

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Iraq blast was assassination attempt says official
Baghdad (AFP) Dec 2, 2011 - Iraqi Major General Qassim Atta on Friday said an explosion near parliament was a botched attempt to kill the prime minister, after an official termed it an attempt on the parliament speaker's life.

At least one person was killed and two wounded in the blast near the Iraqi parliament building on Monday, the cause of which was disputed. MP Muayid al-Tayyeb was one of those hurt.

"The intelligence information that we obtained showed that this operation was conducted to target the prime minister," Baghdad security spokesman Atta told AFP.

"The person was supposed to bring the car inside the parliament parking, and leave it there for four days until (Prime Minister Nuri) al-Maliki attended a session of the parliament," Atta said.

"He failed to bring the car inside the parking, so he blew himself up," he said, adding that "the car entered the Green Zone with a convoy."

"We arrested two groups involved in this operation," Atta said.

He told a news conference on Friday that the vehicle was a black SUV containing 20 kilogrammes of locally-made explosives.

A burned body has been found at the scene was suspected of being the body of the "terrorist," he said.

Iraqi security officials, an MP and a US military spokesman had on Monday given a laundry list of potential causes for the blast, saying that it was alternatively from a mortar shell, a suicide bomber, or a magnetic "sticky bomb."

Atta is the second official to allege that the blast was an attempt on a high-ranking Iraqi politician's life.

Aidan Helmi, media adviser to parliament speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, said on Monday that the explosion was caused by a suicide bomber and called it a botched "assassination attempt" on Nujaifi.

"One man in a black vehicle that looks like the vehicles of Nujaifi's convoy tried to enter the VIP gate of parliament," possibly aiming to join the speaker's convoy, Helmi told AFP.

"When he tried to enter, the guards asked him for a special badge, so he backed up, hitting a car behind him and the pavement.

"He then got out of the car and started arguing with the driver of the car behind him, and suddenly he blew himself up."

"Mr Nujaifi was in his room, and he was late because I talked to him for 15 minutes," Helmi said.

"This is an assassination attempt against Mr Nujaifi. The question is not which party the attacker belonged to, but rather how he managed to arrive here with this vest."



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Iran further isolated after British embassy storming
Tehran (AFP) Dec 2, 2011
The storming of Britain's embassy in Tehran this week will likely deepen the isolation of Iran, which is already criticised for its nuclear programme, human rights record and alleged support for militants. Britain on Wednesday ordered Iran's embassy in London closed after Basij militia members ran amok through its own mission in Tehran, prompting the evacuation of all its diplomats. Seve ... read more


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