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THE STANS
Investing in Afghanistan and Iraq

Six soldiers die in insurgent attack in Afghanistan: ISAF
Kabul (AFP) Dec 12, 2010 - Six foreign soldiers were killed Sunday following an attack by insurgents in Afghanistan's Taliban-hit south, NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said in a statement. The coalition force would not give further details of the incident, one of the deadliest single attacks in recent months, and would not reveal the soldiers' nationalities, in line with its policy. The attack took to 692 the number of foreign soldiers killed so far in 2010, according to an AFP tally based on one kept by icasualties.org. It is by far the bloodiest year in the nine-year war for the alliance, which lost 521 servicemembers in Afghanistan in 2009.

The largely Pashtun south of the country is the Taliban's heartland where 15 civilians, including children, were killed Saturday in a roadside bomb -- the insurgents' cheaply-made weapon of choice that claims most lives in the war. The Taliban have been waging an increasingly deadly insurgency after they were ousted from government in 2001 by a US-led invasion, with the south and east of the war-torn country suffering the brunt of the violence. Sunday's attack was the worst since November 29, when six American police training soldiers were killed by one of their Afghan students in eastern Nangarhar province. The latest bloodshed comes just days before the White House publishes an assessment of US military strategy in Afghanistan amid claims of some battlefield success but dwindling support at home for the bloody and long war.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates signalled strong support for the current strategy during a visit to Afghanistan last week, saying he was "convinced" it was paying off, a year after President Barack Obama ordered in a surge of 30,000 troops. "The bottom line is that in the last 12 months, we've come a long way, making progress that even just in the last few months has exceeded my expectations," said Gates. The approach is aimed at pushing back the Taliban from towns in the south and east while building up Afghan forces and local governments, but critics say it is not working as the Taliban are extending their footprint across the country. Last week NATO said it would battle hard through the bitter Afghan winter, which usually signals a lull in fighting, keeping up pressure on the insurgency until spring. US military leaders back the government's plan for Afghan police and army to assume responsibility for security by 2014, with the timetable agreed at a major NATO summit in Lisbon last month.
by Giulia Lasagni, Medill News Service
Washington (UPI) Dec 10, 2010
U.S. investors and other foreign companies continue to shy away from investing in Afghanistan and Iraq because of security and infrastructure problems as well as government corruption, a critical shortcoming in the two countries' efforts to grow their economies and increase stability.

"Security is essential to economic and business development," said Ethan B. Kapstein, a professor of international affairs at the University of Texas' Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, in an e-mailed message.

Investors are reluctant to make capital investments in conflict areas, Kapstein said, fearing that they will be destroyed. The reluctance affects not only foreign investment but local entrepreneurs, research indicates.

And that lack of investment exacerbates the difficulty of creating security in a country, experts said.

Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, a journalist and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who researched women-owned businesses in post-war areas, said economic growth is key in creating secure communities.

"Entrepreneurs are a passionate and vocal force for stability," she said.

Afghanistan

Despite low inflation and impressive economic growth, Afghanistan remains a challenging environment for many businesses and not only because it is a conflict zone.

Foreign firms and exporters are few but the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Economic, Energy and Business Affairs says the investment climate "has shown surprising levels of dynamism in recent years."

A World Bank report indicates Afghanistan's gross domestic product is expected to grow 8.6 percent in 2010-11 due mainly to a boom in agriculture, mining and the service sector. Low inflation -- estimated this year at around 5 percent -- has started to make inroads into the country's high poverty levels.

But despite the encouraging signs, security is still a top concern for most entrepreneurs, said Sulaiman Lutfi, chairman of the board of the Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce, an organization created eight years ago to promote private investments in Afghanistan through seminars and networking events.

In addition, uncertainty is one of the main concerns of local business owners, said Jake Cusack, a graduate student at Harvard University's Kennedy and Business schools.

Cusack, who recently co-wrote a policy brief for the Center for a New American Security interviewed 130 business owners in Afghanistan and found that their top concerns weren't about security.

Despite Kandahar's reputation for being one of the most dangerous cities in the country, for example, Cusack and study co-author Erik Malmstrom determined that business people there were mainly worried about unstable power supplies, financing and the intentions of the local and national government.

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Cusack said, was often mentioned as another source of uncertainty.

Inadequate infrastructure, complex regulations and government corruption also contribute to making Afghanistan an unfriendly place for investors.

Corruption is endemic in the country, including in the judicial system; in 2009, Afghanistan ranked 179 out of 180 countries in Transparency International's survey on global corruption.

According to the State Department, most businesses rely on "informal mechanisms" to resolve legal disputes and enforce property rights and many report often being asked for bribes in exchange for a government service.

"Despite an incredibly difficult business environment, a lot of entrepreneurs are working around the obstacles doing the best that they can because they see their businesses as a way to support their families," Lemmon said.

Iraq

Roadblocks to investment in Iraq are similar to those in Afghanistan.

"Everything imaginable needs to be rebuilt," said Leslie M. Schweitzer, senior trade adviser for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, referring to airports, seaports, waterways, railroads, water purification systems and around 2 million to 3 million houses. "The numbers are astronomic."

The 2011 World Bank's "Doing Business" report ranked Iraq 166th out of 183 countries.

Despite its abundant natural resources, Iraq's GDP is very volatile, mainly because of its dependence on oil, a sector marked by extreme price fluctuations. While security has improved, widespread corruption, a fragile rule of law and complex regulations still make business owners' lives difficult.

Nevertheless, Iraq holds "tremendous opportunities" for investors, Schweitzer said.

"The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is taking a very aggressive approach in helping American companies to take advantage of the billions of dollars of infrastructure needs in Iraq," she said.

In 2008, the chamber created the Iraq Business Initiative with the goal of facilitating U.S. investment in the country.

While the oil and gas sectors have attracted large companies, Schweitzer said that American businesses haven't taken advantage of the services related to them.

"We have realized that Turkish, Chinese, French, German and Indian companies are doing much more business there than American companies," Schweitzer said.

The infrastructure and the energy sector, she said, also offer increasing opportunities.

While Schweitzer acknowledged that doing business in Iraq isn't for everybody, she said it is worth it for companies to explore what the country has to offer.

"It's very important, since America paid the highest price to get this country to the point of being a democracy," she said.



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THE STANS
US review of Afghan war out next week: Pentagon
Washington (AFP) Dec 10, 2010
The United States is due to publish its long-awaited review of the US military strategy in Afghanistan next week, a Pentagon spokesman said Friday. The report, ordered by President Barack Obama a year ago when he deployed 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan to combat a bloody Taliban insurgency, is due to give an assessment of the allied intervention in the conflict. "We have said that th ... read more







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