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POLITICAL ECONOMY
India escapes the worst of emerging markets misery
by Staff Writers
New Delhi (AFP) Sept 13, 2015


China state firm reforms limited and slow: analysts
Shanghai (AFP) Sept 14, 2015 - China is promising reforms, mergers and even closures in its bloated state-owned businesses as it looks to bolster an economy causing global anxiety, but sceptical analysts said Monday that real change could take years.

A slew of disappointing data from the world's second-largest economy has sent shudders around the world, with the latest showing weak growth in both industrial output and government infrastructure spending.

So a weekend announcement by Communist Party bosses that they wanted to loosen the ropes binding 150,000 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) was seen as a chance to shake up a flabby sector.

Zhang Xiwu, a vice-director of the government body that oversees the 110-odd centrally managed firms, told a briefing Monday that it would "clear up a group of SOEs and let them exit the market".

"We will make more efforts in reforming 'zombie enterprises', long-time loss-making enterprises and disposing (of) low-efficient and non-performing assets," he said.

But the lengthy "Guidelines on Deepening State-owned Enterprise Reform" did not specify any particular measures at individual companies.

Crucially, it stopped short of recommending full privatisation, opting instead for advising mergers and mixed ownership.

For Claire Huang, China economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, the intention was to strengthen SOEs, but there was little prospect of immediate change.

"Don't expect this document to have much positive impact on the economy anytime soon," she told AFP.

"The current downturn caused by structural shift in the economy is only halfway through and the goal of this guideline is to improve the efficiency of SOEs, which will take a long time to accomplish."

- Disappointed -

China last week lowered its 2014 economic growth figure to 7.3 percent -- high by global standards, but the country's slowest rate in nearly a quarter of a century, after decades of double-digit expansion.

Beijing is pushing the line that this a "new normal", saying that this is what the economy will look like as it retools from one dependent on state spending and exports, to one reliant on domestic demand.

But investors have been spooked by months of discouraging numbers, sending stock markets around the world into spasms amid worries over whether Communist bosses are capable of managing the transition.

If authorities were hoping to calm nerves with their blueprint, they would have been disappointed; the benchmark Shanghai stock index fell 2.67 percent on Monday, with commentators saying the plan lacked any bold details.

"The guidelines are generally within market expectations," HSBC Beijing-based economist Ma Xiaoping told AFP.

"Many SOEs have already embarked on the merger process and attracting private capital."

Two rail construction firms, China Railway Group and China Railway Erju, on Monday announced that they are planning "asset integration" and would each suspend trading of their stock, setting off speculation of a future merger.

But the government is a long way from cutting the apron strings entirely.

National Development and Reform Commission vice chairman Lian Weiliang said the state will continue to hold controlling stakes in firms whose operations encompass sectors key to "national security" or "economic security".

"The reforms will have a long-term impact," Bank of Communications analyst Liu Xuezhi told AFP. "While in the short term, their influence on the economy is quite limited".

Three years ago India was the weakling of the emerging markets clan, politically stagnant and struggling to grow -- but as gloom engulfs other developing economies, the subcontinent is enjoying a moment in the sun.

Brazil and Russia lie deep in recession and South Africa is teetering on the brink after demand for raw materials collapsed, while alarm bells have sounded over fears the China juggernaut may be faltering.

Enter India, once dubbed the Broken BRIC, as the core group is known, now poised to become the fastest-growing G20 economy, expanding at a respectable seven percent, with its finances nourished by cheap oil.

"If you look at the growth numbers, India is definitely doing better than these other economies," Kunal Kundu, an economist at Societe Generale in Bangalore, told AFP.

"China is in slowdown mode and Brazil and Russia are in trouble because they are commodities-dependent. We are seeing India as the standout."

It is not all rosy -- while low-cost oil and a new way of calculating growth have added shine to India's GDP figures, its exports remain poor and shares on the Bombay Stock Exchange languish five percent below a year ago.

Economists say underlying growth remains fragile, and question whether the re-calculated figures that show India's growth rate has caught up with China's can be trusted.

But as turmoil convulsed global markets this summer, wiping trillions of dollars off world exchanges and leading investors to flee emerging economies, India has escaped comparatively unscathed.

"India is looking like an oasis of stability at the moment," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics in London.

"It is a very different picture from a couple of years ago when India was at the forefront of concerns."

- Boom to bust -

As long as China steamrolled along at double-digit pace, covering its landscape with highways and skyscrapers, train tracks and malls, it sucked in vast amounts of raw materials such as oil, coal, iron ore for steelmaking, and cement.

Now the magic growth engine is sputtering out its worst GDP figures since 1990, Beijing says; analysts say the truth could be even uglier.

When the Middle Kingdom's appetite waned it cast a chill over Brazil, whose economy depends on selling commodities to China and a handful of other big customers.

Prices have drooped, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index that tracks 22 raw materials falling to its lowest in 16 years in August, and not only are prices low, no one is buying like before.

"Brazil is very affected, more than other emerging countries, especially after what happened yesterday," said Alex Agostini, chief economist at Austin Rating in Sao Paulo, referring to Standard & Poor's decision to cut Brazil's sovereign rating to junk.

At the peak of the boom in 2010 the one-time South American superstar grew 7.5 percent; economists now expect it to remain in recession in 2016, as political paralysis compounds its woes.

Fellow junk-rated Russia, an oil exporter which lost big when prices halved, faces biting sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, while the number of Russians living in poverty has soared to 21.7 million, or roughly 15 percent of its total population, statistics agency Rosstat said.

"The main impact now comes through China influencing the global economy, commodities and financial markets," Oleg Kouzmin at Renaissance Capital in Moscow said. He expects Russia's economy to shrink by four percent this year.

In South Africa, one of China's biggest suppliers of minerals, one in four people is unemployed and GDP unexpectedly shrank 1.3 percent in the second quarter. Sales of iron ore have tanked, leading mining companies to announce huge layoffs.

Adding to the pain is a looming Federal Reserve interest rate rise, which will make riskier emerging markets less attractive compared with the dollar.

- India: not so fast -

Next to its fractious emerging market cousins, politically stable India looks positively glowing, named by the IMF as one of the few "bright spots" in the world economy.

Low commodity prices are a gift: while cheap crude has pummelled exporters, India, which imports 80 percent of its oil needs, won the lottery.

The ensuing cash windfall has helped the government balance its books and made it less reliant on foreign loans.

"India is in a much better position, we don't have some of the problems the other economies have," said Arya Sen at Jefferies investment bank in Mumbai.

"Not only that, we are probably going to see an acceleration in growth which is very rare at the moment."

Yet old problems persist -- Prime Minister Narendra Modi's promised reforms have stalled, with a land acquisition bill abandoned and a key sales tax delayed indefinitely.

India escaped much of the recent global turmoil because it exports relatively little -- meaning it does not make enough goods people want to buy, isolating it from the wider economy.

Labour and investment laws remain agonisingly complex, hindering growth, while outdated infrastructure is badly in need of funds.

And while in New Delhi politicians trumpet a growth rate that now rivals China's, economists warn India is still a chronic underperformer.

Its $2 trillion economy is five times smaller than that of China, which although not bounding like before still contributes more than a third of global growth.

"India should not be complacent, politicians should not be celebrating," Williams at Capital Economics said.

"It should be growing much faster. It could have had growth of nine or 10 percent, it could have been another China."


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