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OIL AND GAS
IEA outlook bruises oil markets further
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Dec 12, 2014


Economist: Iran needs oil at $125 per barrel
Tehran (UPI) Dec 12, 2014 - Oil needs to be priced at about $125 per barrel in order for Iran to end the calendar year without a budget deficit, an Iranian economist said Friday.

Oil prices have shed more than 40 percent of their June value, trading Friday at a five-year low at $62.69 for Brent, the global price index. In an interview with Shana, the Iranian Oil Ministry's news website, economist Mahmoud Jaamsaz said Iran needs oil at about twice that level to balance its books.

"If the government plans to end the year according to the figures anticipated in the budget and avoid deficit, it should be able to sell oil based on at least $125 per barrel," he said.

Iran is restricted to exports of around 1 million barrels per day according to the terms of a multilateral agreement that offers some sanctions relief in exchange for commitments to curb nuclear research activity.

Iran is out more than $35 billion in oil revenue since it agreed to that plan. Last week, Iranian officials said they were drafting a budget for the fiscal year that begins in March based on $70 per barrel.

Jaamsaz said Iran's economy has been heavily dependent on oil revenue for too long.

"Oil income is a disadvantage for the country because it has been misspent and the incomes have not been followed by economic welfare, social justice and sustainable development," he said.

For fiscal year 2013-14, the World Bank estimates the Iranian economy has contracted at an annual rate of 1.7 percent.

A Friday decision by the International Energy Agency to trim its oil demand forecast added insult to injury, pushing oil price indices to record lows.

The IEA said in its market report for December the outlook ahead was weaker than previously expected. The outlook for 2015 demand growth was trimmed by 230,000 barrels per day to just under 1 million bpd because of lower expectations about the Russian economy and other oil-exporting countries impacted by the bear market for crude oil.

That word sent oil prices reeling in a market already battered by low demand expectations outlined in the December market report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Brent, the global benchmark, shed more than $1.20 per barrel for the January contract to trade at $62.46 early Friday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. index, passed a new threshold low to trade down $1.30 to near $58.50 for January delivery.

Oil prices are at a point where producers may find it difficult to make a profit. Several major oil companies have cut back on their spending forecasts because of what are considered exceptionally difficult market conditions.

IEA said in its Friday report global oil production was off more than 300,000 bpd in November to 94.1 million bpd because of lower OPEC supplies.

For U.S. shale production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said there was still some momentum. EIA said next year's drilling activity is expected to decline.

"However, projected oil prices remain high enough to support development drilling activity in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and Permian Basin, which contribute the majority of U.S. oil production growth," it said in a Friday brief.


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