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OIL AND GAS
IEA forecast drags on crude oil prices
by Daniel J. Graeber
New York (UPI) Nov 10, 2015


Crude oil tugs on price at the pump
Washington (UPI) Nov 10, 2015 - Midweek fluctuations in crude oil prices and lower processing at refineries are keeping retail gasoline prices from falling dramatically, analysts said.

Motor club AAA reports a national average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline at $2.21 per gallon, a minor decline from the previous day, but about 0.8 percent higher than last week.

Gasoline prices are tied largely to crude oil prices, as well as refinery and transit infrastructure issues. For crude oil prices, last week saw steep spikes and heavy declines amid global macroeconomic data and information showing an increase in Russian crude oil production.

Tuesday marks the fourth straight day of declines in the national average price for gasoline, although that follows six straight days of an increase. Avery Ash, a spokesman for AAA, said in a November report on retail gasoline prices that mid-month increases are possible because refinery maintenance has been heavier than normal.

"Gas prices likely will increase during the first half of November, but that trend might not last long," he said.

Prices in the Midwest were elevated in August and September because of issues at regional refineries, including at BP's refinery in Whiting, Ind., one of the nation's largest. AAA said the Midwest region has experienced "heavy" refinery maintenance because of higher production during the summer's peak driving season.

Any spikes in gasoline prices will be temporary, however, as most refineries are expected to wrap up heavy maintenance by the end of the month. A survey of federal data from analysts at the consumer price monitor GasBuddy.com finds refiners are starting to process more crude oil as maintenance issues are addressed.

"GasBuddy anticipates that the bulk of maintenance will be completed by Thanksgiving, and should lead to an overall cooler climate at the pump for the holiday season," it said in an emailed report.

There are six states with an average price below the $2 mark. South Carolina has the lowest state average in the nation with $1.95 per gallon.

Expectations that crude oil prices won't return to the $100 per barrel mark anytime soon put downward pressure on the energy market in early Tuesday trading.

In the much-watched World Energy Outlook for 2015, the International Energy Agency said the forces are in place to rebalance a market characterized by wide disparities in supply in demand. In its mid-range forecast, however, IEA said crude oil prices won't reach $80 per barrel for another five years.

Brent, the global benchmark price for crude oil, last traded above $80 per barrel on Nov. 12, 2014. Largely on the back of growth in U.S. oil production and steady output from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, crude oil prices have been on downturn for more than a year.

Brent lost about 0.4 percent from the previous session to trade at $47 per barrel early Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price for crude oil, was down about 0.6 percent to $43.59 per barrel.

The latest statements from OPEC suggest production from the 12-member group will hold steady on expectations demand growth will come from Asia. In its latest snapshot, meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said declines are expected from most of the shale oil basin in the United States.

The IEA finds that, by 2040, net imports from China will be nearly five times that of the United States. Despite the growth in shale oil, the United States is still a net importer of oil.

Shifting dynamics, the IEA finds, means the global reliance in Middle East oil will eventually return to levels not seen since the 1970s. In the early 1970s, an export embargo to the United States enacted by Arab members of OPEC created shock-waves across the energy market.

"Now is not the time to relax," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "Quite the opposite: A period of low oil prices is the moment to reinforce our capacity to deal with future energy security threats."

While long-term forecasts are generally inaccurate, reports find crude oil prices will remain depressed for the foreseeable future. The Bank of England forecast a price per barrel at around $62 in 2018. Fitch Ratings said to expect a "modest" price recovery by 2017, when Brent should average about $65 per barrel.


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