Five months after they were suspended, international talks on Iran's nuclear programme will restart on Monday in Vienna with analysts foreseeing major obstacles to any speedy resumption of the 2015 nuclear deal.

The talks paused in June on a positive note, with diplomats saying they were "close" to an agreement, but the arrival of ultraconservative Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in office has changed the outlook.

Iran ignored appeals from Western countries to restart the talks for several months, all the while strengthening the capabilities of its nuclear programme.

While the talks are now finally restarting, the mood music is downbeat.

The US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley has said that Tehran's attitude "doesn't augur well for the talks".

"If they start getting too close, too close for comfort, then of course we will not be prepared to sit idly," Malley told the US National Public Radio earlier this week.

- 'Precarious situation' -

The 2015 deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), offered a lifting of some of the array of economic sanctions Iran had been under in return for strict curbs on its nuclear programme.

But the deal began falling apart in 2018 when then US president Donald Trump pulled out and began reinstating sanctions on Iran.

The following year, Iran retaliated by starting to exceed the limits on its nuclear activity laid down in the deal.

In recent months, it has started enriching uranium to unprecedented levels and has also restricted the activities of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN watchdog charged with monitoring Iran's nuclear facilities.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi visited Tehran last week in the hope of addressing several bones of contention between the agency and Iran.

However, he said on his return that "no progress" had been made on the issues he raised.

In order not to jeopardise the JCPOA talks, Western diplomats decided not to press for a resolution critical of Iran at last week's meeting of the IAEA's Board of Governors.

However, the US has said it could convene a special meeting of the board in December if the impasse continues.

"Iran's unwillingness to reach a relatively straightforward compromise with the IAEA reflects poorly on the outlook for the nuclear talks," according to Henry Rome, Iran specialist at the Eurasia Group.

"Iran may calculate that its unconstrained nuclear advances... will put more pressure on the West to give ground in talks quickly," Rome said in a note, but added that this would instead "likely have the opposite effect".

"The situation regarding Iran's nuclear advances is increasingly precarious," Kelsey Davenport, an expert with the Arms Control Association, told journalists in a briefing last week.

- Covert programme? -

"While the Trump administration manufactured this crisis, Iran's actions are really prolonging it," Davenport said.

"Iran is acting like the United States is going to blink first but... pressure is a double-edged sword" which could kill any prospect of the 2015 deal being restored, she added.

One particular area of concern for the IAEA is a centrifuge components manufacturing unit in Karaj, near Tehran.

The IAEA has not had access to the site since its cameras there were damaged by an "act of sabotage" in June.

Iran has accused arch-foe Israel of carrying out an attack on the site.

"If there are gaps in the IAEA's monitoring, it will drive the speculation that Iran has engaged in illicit activity, that it has a covert programme, whether there's evidence to that or not," Davenport pointed out, which could in turn "undermine the prospects for sustaining the deal".

The talks will take place in the Palais Coburg hotel where the 2015 agreement was clinched.

Along with Iran, diplomats from the UK, China, Germany, Russia and France will attend.

The US will take part in the talks indirectly.

Top Israel diplomat Yair Lapid was meanwhile scheduled to meet Monday with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in London, and with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Tuesday.

Former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu was among the most vocal critics of the 2015 deal.

Russia's ambassador to the UN in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov noted on Saturday that the talks had been subjected to "a very protracted pause".

"There is the obvious need to speed up the process," Ulyanov said.

The US has already warned it will turn to "other efforts... to address Iran's nuclear ambitions" if the talks fail but analysts say there are no obvious options available outside the negotiations.

Timeline: Troubled Iran nuclear deal since Trump walkout
Vienna (AFP) Nov 29, 2021 - With talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers scheduled to resume in Vienna on Monday, we look at the sanctions and brinkmanship since the United States pulled out of the pact in May 2018.

Here is a timeline:

- 2018: US withdrawal -

President Donald Trump walks away from the deal negotiated between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the US -- plus Germany on May 8, 2018.

"We cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement," he says.

- US sanctions -

Later that year, Washington reimposes sanctions on Iran and companies with ties to it, badly hitting Iran's vital oil sector and central bank.

Major international firms halt activities in Iran as the US bans other nations from buying Iranian crude.

- 2019: Iran starts walk-back -

In May 2019, Iran takes its first step away from the deal, hoping to pressure Europe into helping it circumvent the sanctions.

Trump hits back by sanctioning Iran's steel and mining sectors.

In July, Tehran says it has exceeded the accord's restrictions on both its enriched uranium reserves and enrichment levels.

- 10-fold increase -

In September, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) watchdog says Iran has started using advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium.

In November, Tehran says its enrichment increased tenfold and that it has developed two new advanced centrifuges.

It then resumes enrichment at its Fordo plant.

- 2020: Drone assassination -

Tensions between Washington and Tehran spiral after a US drone strike in Baghdad in January 2020 kills top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, sparking a tit-for-tat confrontation.

Iran announces its fifth step back, foregoing a limit on its number of centrifuges.

- Iranian demands -

In February, Iran demands economic advantages from Europe in return for cancelling all, or part, of its rollback measures.

In March, European signatories say they have delivered medical goods to Iran under a mechanism established to bypass US sanctions.

On November 27, 2020, one of Iran's top nuclear scientists Mohsen Fakhrizadeh is killed near Tehran in an attack that Iran blames on Israel.

- 2021: New breach -

With Trump in his last days in the White House and tensions spiralling, Tehran deals the accord a further blow on January 4 by saying it has started enriching uranium at Fordo.

The IAEA in February says Iran has started producing uranium metal, which can be used in nuclear weapons.

It is also "deeply concerned" by the possible presence of nuclear material at an undeclared site as Iran restricts site inspections.

- 60 percent enrichment -

On April 7, with President Joe Biden in the White House, talks on rescuing the accord start in Vienna.

But nine days later, Iran says it will start enriching uranium up to 60 percent after an attack on its Natanz plant which it blames on Israel.

- Iran hits pause button -

Iran pauses talks in June after the election of hardline new president, Ebrahim Raisi.

But on August 5, he says it is again open to negotiations as experts warn nuclear work is continuing apace and advancing to dangerous levels.

- Tehran ready to talk -

On October 13, Washington raises the spectre of a military option as Europe presses Iran to rejoin the talks suspended since June.

On October 27, after a meeting in Brussels, Iran says it is ready to resume talks, with the US taking part indirectly. They agree to restart negotiations in Vienna on November 29.

Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium many times in excess of the limit laid down in the 2015 agreement, the IAEA says on November 17.

After a mission to Tehran, IAEA head Rafael Grossi says on November 24: "In terms of the substance... we were not able to make progress."

Iran accuses the UN's Vienna-based nuclear agency of bowing to pressure from its Western financiers to "discriminate" against the Islamic republic.

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Iran says 'firmly determined' to salvage nuclear deal
Tehran (AFP) Nov 29, 2021
Iran is "firmly determined" to reach an agreement with major powers on salvaging its 2015 nuclear agreement at talks that resume Monday in Vienna, its foreign ministry spokesman said. "The delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran is in Vienna with a firm determination to reach an agreement and is looking forward to fruitful talks," Said Khatibzadeh told reporters. "The government has shown its willingness and seriousness by sending a quality team known to all. If the other side shows the same ... read more