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Hegseth and Gaza: intended and unintended consequences
Hegseth and Gaza: intended and unintended consequences
by Harlan Ullman
Washington DC (UPI) Jan 16, 2025

Tuesday's confirmation hearings on Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense and Wednesday's announcement of a cease-fire agreement for Gaza are illustrative of the elusive nature of politics that are likely to have profound intended and unintended consequences.

The Hegseth hearings were unique in that the nominee was not administered an oath to tell the truth and that the FBI report on his background was not made available to the full committee. Moreover, bipartisan staff members agreed las year to only one round of questioning.

The initial announcement of a Gaza truce was almost immediately rescinded, raising the question of whether a deal was to be had or whether this was just another example of the uncertainty of Middle East politics. Within a few hours, the deal was on again. One wonders what the next days will bring.

In the Senate, committee chairmen determine the need for an oath. In 1989, when John Tower was George H. W. Bush's nominee for defense secretary, the oath was not administered. Tower, a former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was not confirmed.

Despite the amount of unswerving support Republicans in the Senate and President-elect Trump, Hegseth's qualifications and character are, at best, modest. Had he been under oath, perhaps there might have better answers to allegations of alcohol and sexual abuse. Hegseth's stock answer was "anonymous slanders," even though a number had been filed by eyewitnesses.

Hegseth's qualifications were commanding a relatively small number of troops, at most a company of less than 200 soldiers in limited combat operations, and leading two small non-government organizations.

He has virtually no background in international issues, negotiations or contacts. By comparison, the Department of Defense numbers more than 3 million active duty and reserve uniform personnel and more than 1 million civilian employees and contractors with an annual budget of nearly $900 billion. No secretary in modern times has been qualified for assuming this post.

Assuming Hegseth is confirmed, he will arrive at the Pentagon sometime next week Since the Senate has not confirmed any other Pentagon officials and has requested the resignations of all current political appointees, he is home alone with military and civil service officials.

Let us say that the Gaza truce requires immediate humanitarian support provided by the Pentagon and the new secretary of defense is asked for options. Even a more qualified secretary might be hard-pressed to offer immediate ideas.

So what would Hegseth do? He probably would ask the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff fir recommendations. But does he know that the chairman would need the advice of the operational commanders, namely Transportation, European and Central commands, as well as the service chiefs, to coordinate?

That will take time. Yet, the White House needs immediate ideas. Or suppose another crisis breaks out over a balloon overflying the country or a collision between a U.S. and Chinese or Russian warship. What then?

The on again-off again announcement of the Gaza truce suggests a rough road ahead. For all the destruction Israel has imposed on Hamas, the agreement suggests that the news of Hamas' death may be premature. Israel gains the return of about 33 hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians charged with terrorism and other high crimes. What about the remaining 30 or 40 hostages?

Profound questions persist. How will the truce be enforced? Who will provide the millions of tons of supplies to sustain and rebuild a devastated Gaza? And what about the follow-up arrangements in subsequent phases?

In the United States, credit for the success of this negotiation will be claimed by both Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Biden will say this was the result of his policy and the terms he offered last year. Trump will assert that if he did not threaten there would be hell to pay for failing to return American hostages, Hamas would not have been forced to the negotiating table. And this clash will be intensified by the irreversible political differences in America.

Caution is the order of the day. One hopes that this start can be sustained for the long term. But as long as a reinvigorated Hamas has a vote, the intensive hatred and hostility between Arab and Jew do not diminish. And the vast destruction in Gaza requires immediate attention. This is a very fragile peace that too easily could go off the rails.

This will demand the most subtle and competent diplomacy by all parties. And as with the accession of Pete Hegseth to secretary of defense, beware the intended and unintended consequences of what may lay ahead.

Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with General The Lord David Richards, former U.K. Chief of Defense and due out late next year, is "The Great Paradox: Strategic Thinking in an Unstrategic World." The writer can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.

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