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Growing doubts in Israel about strike on Iran
by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) Nov 9, 2011


Experts and political figures on Wednesday expressed growing doubts of Israel launching a military strike aimed at stopping Iran's nuclear drive, although such an attack hasn't been ruled out.

Talk of a pre-emptive Israeli strike on Iran has increased in recent weeks, in the run-up to the publication of a major report by the UN's atomic watchdog which was released late on Tuesday.

In the report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had "serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions" of Iran's nuclear programme, giving its clearest indication yet that Tehran may be developing nuclear weapons.

Israeli commentators believe the "unprecedented severity" of the report increases the likelihood of more stringent international sanctions against the Islamic republic and reduces the immediate chances of an Israeli strike.

"Israel can not afford to act alone against Iran," said Uzi Eilam, former head of Israel's Atomic Energy Commission.

"We must guard against hysteria. Iran is not an existential threat to Israel," he told army radio.

"Even if Iran manages to detonate a nuclear device as did North Korea, it will take six to seven years to equip its missiles with nuclear warheads," he added.

Some commentators said a strike on the concealed and fortified Iranian installations would pose a far greater challenge to Israel than in 1981 when it bombed Iraq's Osirak plant, and the strike in 2007 of a suspected nuclear site in Syria which has not been acknowledged by the Jewish state.

"Israel can not by itself stop Iran's nuclear programme, as was done in Iraq and, according to foreign media, in Syria," said former vice-premier Haim Ramon said on army radio.

Ramon said he doubted an air strike "could even put the Iranian nuclear programme back by five years," given the remoteness of the targets, their dispersion and Iranian defensive preparations.

"On the contrary, such a strike would give Iran an additional pretext to build a nuclear bomb" -- as a deterrent against Israel, he said.

"The Iranian nuclear programme is a problem for the whole world, Israel should not put itself in the front line to combat it."

Reuven Pedatzur, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University and military commentator, also raised questions about whether such an attack could significantly hamper Iranian efforts to secure a nuclear weapon.

"Israel does have the ability to bomb (Iran), but there is no guarantee that such an attack would delay Iran's nuclear programme, given the lack of information on the sites and the fact that they are so deeply buried," he told AFP.

But Efraim Kam, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said that as a last resort, an Israeli attack was "feasible, but very difficult."

However, there would be no such operation "without at least the tacit agreement of the United States," he said.

"The IAEA report confirms everything Israel has said in the past. It will facilitate international sanctions against Iran, which is the current option on the agenda," said Kam, a former military intelligence official.

Israel has refused to comment directly on the report, although several hours before it was released, Defence Minister Ehud Barak said the Jewish state had "not yet decided on a military operation against Iran."

But Iran's deputy chief of staff on Wednesday warned any attack by Israel would bring about "destruction" of the Jewish state and that its response would even be felt outside the Middle East.

Israel, which has the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear arsenal, suspects Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear programme.

Tehran denies that charge and has accused Israel of trying to sabotage its civilian nuclear programme and kill its nuclear scientists.

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World must stop Iran's nuclear drive, Israel warns
Jerusalem (AFP) Nov 9, 2011 - The world must act to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday after the release of a key report by the UN's atomic watchdog.

"The significance of the report is that the international community must bring about the cessation of Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons which endanger the peace of the world and of the Middle East," he said in a statement issued by his office.

It was the first official Israeli response to Tuesday's report by the International Atomic Energy Agency which said it had "serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions" of Iran's nuclear programme.

"The IAEA report corroborates the position of the international community, and of Israel that Iran is developing nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said.

Israel, which has the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear arsenal, has long accused Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear programme.

Tehran denies that charge and has accused Israel of trying to sabotage its civilian nuclear programme and kill its nuclear scientists.

Earlier, opposition leader and Kadima party chairwoman Tzipi Livni said publication of the report meant Israel should push the world to act firmly to stop Iran.

"Now that the truth has been presented to the world, Israel must galvanise the free world to stop Iran," she said in a posting on her Facebook page. "Determination and diplomatic wisdom are crucial now."

Head of the Knesset's Foreign and Defence Committee Shaul Mofaz, also a Kadima MP, said the "severe report" provided the free world with the opportunity to "take action" against Iran.

"This is the moment of truth for the Western world's foreign policy, headed by (US) President (Barack) Obama," the Iranian-born former chief of staff said late on Tuesday.

"The report should be seen as an opportunity to change the trend, and the mission is not solely Israel's."

The world must "intensify" the sanctions on Iran, to the point of paralysing its economy, he said, stressing that military action remained the last option, Mofaz told army radio.

"Military action in general, and specifically by Israel, is currently the last and worst option -- but all options should be on the table now," he said.

Israeli media in recent weeks have been full of chatter suggesting a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities was being seriously considered by Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak.

At the weekend, President Shimon Peres had warned the likelihood of an attack was becoming "more and more likely."

The IAEA report, a copy of which was seen by AFP late on Tuesday, said it had "credible" information that Tehran "has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."

In Israel, media commentators had on Tuesday suggested the "unprecedented severity" of the report meant a strike on Iran was unlikely.

Television Channels 2 and 10 both said the release of the report would give Israel "some weeks or some months" to see if the international community slaps "crippling sanctions" on the Islamic republic.



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NUKEWARS
No 'smoking gun' in Iran nuclear report: analysts
Vienna (AFP) Nov 9, 2011
The UN atomic watchdog's hardest-hitting report to date on Iran's suspected nuclear weapons drive is probably too weak to convince Russia and China of the need for more sanctions, analysts said Wednesday. The International Atomic Energy Agency said in a keenly awaited report circulated late Tuesday it had broadly "credible" intelligence suggesting Iran had done work towards building nuclear ... read more


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