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POLITICAL ECONOMY
G20 nations pledge to boost trade despite growing protectionism
By Albee ZHANG
Shanghai (AFP) July 10, 2016


China inflation eases in June: govt
Beijing (AFP) July 10, 2016 - China's consumer price growth slowed in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Sunday, giving the central government room for further monetary stimulus to stabilise economic growth.

The consumer price index (CPI) -- a main gauge of inflation -- rose 1.9 percent on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said, lower than May's 2.0 percent but higher than the 1.8 median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Moderate inflation can be a boon to consumption as it pushes buyers to act before prices go up, while falling prices encourage shoppers to delay purchases and companies to put off investment, both of which can hurt growth.

Food prices fell 1.4 percent month-on-month, the data showed, weighing down the overall inflation figures.

The world's second largest economy expanded last year at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century as Beijing strives to effect a difficult transition in its growth model away from reliance on exports and fixed-asset investment towards one driven by consumers.

The producer price index (PPI), which measures the cost of goods at the factory gate, fell 2.6 percent year-on-year last month, narrower than the 2.8 percent decline in May, as deflation pressures eased due to a rebound in some commodity prices.

Protracted declines in PPI bode ill for industrial prospects, but narrowing declines in the last two months have fuelled hopes the Chinese economy could be reaching the bottom of a painful slowdown.

Looking ahead, analysts said widespread flooding due to summer heavy rains could put short-term pressure on China's industrial output.

Construction is likely to spike once the floods subside, but in the short term industrial production growth will see "negative shocks", Zhang Yao of Nomura said in a note.

Food prices could spike due to the destruction of crops and livestock by floods, said Chang Liu of Capital Economics, increasing the risks of an rise in consumer inflation in the second half of the year.

The world's top 20 economies will work to boost sluggish global trade despite growing protectionism, overcapacity concerns, and uncertainty over Brexit, G20 trade ministers said Sunday at a meeting in Shanghai.

"The global recovery continues, but it remains uneven and falls short of our ambition for strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Downside risks and vulnerabilities persist," the trade ministers said in a joint statement, adding that trade should remain "an important engine" to spur global growth.

The G20 nations, which account for 85 percent of global trade, admitted that protectionism has been rising since the financial crisis, and said that new trade restrictions in the group had reached the highest monthly average registered since the WTO began monitoring in 2009.

"We note with concern that despite the G20's repeated pledge, the stock of restrictive measure affecting trade in goods and services has continued to rise," they said in the statement.

Ahead of the meeting, WTO chief economist Robert Koopman warned that restrictive measures could affect industries including air freight cargo, sea based cargo, automobile sales and production, electronics trade, and agricultural raw materials.

The world's leading economies at the weekend pledged to oppose trade protectionism and reiterated a promise not to add new protective measures until 2018.

Global trade is expected to grow at a tepid 2.8 percent in 2016, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said in April.

And this year is expected to be the fifth in a row where trade grew at less than three percent -- its weakest sustained level in 30 years, WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said on Friday ahead of the talks.

To combat the global slowdown, the ministers said they agreed to improve global trade governance and to work towards easing and liberalising trade.

- Brexit, China concerns -

Concerns over China's production overcapacity in steel have led to trade disputes with the EU and US, and China's vice commerce minister Wang Shouwen said Sunday that the G20 economies "have realised the necessity to take global cooperation to handle the challenge caused by production overcapacity".

But despite claims that China is dumping steel in foreign markets, he said "China's effort in (handling) over capacity has been highly recognised" by the group.

"While some other countries are talking about how to cut down production, Chinese government has already taken measures which have been effective."

Meanwhile Britain's referendum vote to leave the European Union has added new concerns for the recovery of global economic and trade growth.

"Britain leaving the European Union will definitely has some impact on global trade, especially short-term investment," China's Wang commented on Sunday.

Britain's trade minister Mark Price told the Financial Times in Beijing ahead of the weekend talk that tariffs would jump to an average level of at least three percent after its exit from the EU.

He said it's time to "start exploring options" on trade agreements and "China is making very positive noises at the moment", the report said.


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