As many as 10,000 Europeans could be waging jihad in Iraq and Syria by the end of this year, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned Sunday, a three-fold increase on current numbers.

"There are 3,000 Europeans in Iraq and Syria today. When you do a projection for the months to come, there could be 5,000 before summer and 10,000 before the end of the year," Valls told French television channel iTele.

"Do you realise the threat that this represents?" he asked.

He said there were around 1,400 people who were either already in these conflict zones, who had come back from there or who were planning to go.

"There have already been nearly 90 French people who have died out there with a weapon in their hand, fighting against our own values," Valls said.

France, along with Belgium, has seen the largest numbers of volunteers leaving to join the Islamic State jihadist group, which has seized large parts of Syria and Iraq.

Last month, France seized passports from six of its citizens and banned 40 more from travelling abroad after they were allegedly planning to travel to Syria and Iraq.

It was the first time the measure had been used in France following its introduction as part of a raft of new counter-terrorism laws in November.

"We have to face a particularly high threat level in France, in Europe and in other countries," said Valls.

IS still a draw for recruits despite setbacks
Baghdad (AFP) March 8, 2015 - Nigeria's Boko Haram is the latest militant organisation to swear allegiance to the Islamic State group, demonstrating what analysts say is the jihadist network's growing ability to attract new backers.

- Widening affiliation -

Although its predecessor was active for several years following the US-led invasion of Iraq, IS sprang to worldwide prominence in June last year when it overran large parts of Iraq and Syria, declaring a "caliphate" in the two nations.

Several local jihadist groups quickly affiliated themselves, and IS has since received pledges of fealty from extremist outfits from as far afield as Algeria, Afghanistan and Indonesia.

But it is in Iraq and Syria -- where IS still controls huge portions of Sunni Arab heartland -- that the group holds the most sway.

According to Pieter van Ostaeyen, an expert on the Middle East, about eight million people live in territory controlled by IS in the two countries.

In Libya, where an IS affiliate recently killed 21 Coptic Christians in videotaped execution-style murders, "the territory isn't too large and isn't totally controlled by the jihadists," he said.

Luay al-Khatteeb, a researcher at the Brookings Institute, puts the number of people in IS-controlled areas at "between six and seven million".

From that, the jihadists have more than enough possible recruits to maintain "a powerful and numerous armed force," Khatteeb added.

- Unknown fighter numbers -

IS's strict controls on information from its territories make it virtually impossible to evaluate the number of fighters it has at its disposal, and estimates vary greatly.

Khatteeb said IS could have 80,000 fighters, including "around 20,000 foreigners".

Van Ostaeyen put the number at 60,000-70,000 -- the vast majority in Iraq and Syria -- and about 1,500-2,000 in Libya.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor, estimates IS has as many as 45,000 fighters in Syria alone.

Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, an analyst from the Carnegie Middle East Center, believes the true size of IS' fighting force to be far smaller than most reports suggest.

"If they have 25,000 in total, that's the maximum," she said, adding that reporting inflated fighter figures amounted to "advertising" for IS.

- Funding -

It is no less challenging to work out how much money IS has, or where its funding comes from.

The group seized several oil fields when it swarmed across Iraq and Syria last year, and revenue from the crude trade is a key pillar of its income.

The US Treasury estimated in October that IS makes as much as $1 million per day from oil sales, even if some analysts dispute this figure.

Khatteeb said the group produces "a maximum of 50,000-60,000 barrels a day," not enough to satisfy demand for the population under its yoke.

He added that IS' income is supplemented by various activities, including the smuggling of antiques, taxes and extortion imposed on "merchants who have to pay to keep their shops open".

- 'Trademark that works' -

Although it has been pinned back militarily by US-led air strikes and a counter-offensive by Iraqi security forces and militias, IS remains a potent draw for would-be recruits.

Using social media and slick video productions, Ghanem-Yazbeck said the group had become its own trademark.

"It's a trademark that works, like Coca-Cola or McDonald's, which attracts," she said.

"Their true strengths are virtual, online, on YouTube... after nearly every defeat they put out a shocking video so that we talk about them. It's a way of compensating for military defeat."

French recruit in latest IS propaganda video
Washington (AFP) March 8, 2015 - A French Islamic State fighter painted a rosy picture of life under the group's so-called caliphate in a video released Saturday, the latest example of the jihadists' campaign to glorify their exploits and draw in foreign recruits.

The IS group said the narrative of former army trainer and businessman believed to be aged in his sixties -- whom it named as Abu Suhayb al-Faransi -- was the first episode of a new "series" of propaganda videos, according to the US-based SITE monitoring network.

Videos like Faransi's, distributed via social media, have helped IS lure hundreds of supporters from Western countries to the territory it controls in Iraq and Syria.

Faransi, sporting a henna-dyed beard, military fatigues and tinted glasses, is shown speaking in the 15-minute video about his conversion to Islam and pursuit of jihad.

Faransi recalled IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's announcement in June that the fighters were establishing a "caliphate" straddling large chunks of Iraq and Syria.

"From then on, I told myself there was no doubt, I had to join," the Frenchman said.

Some Western recruits have voiced their disenchantment with IS after arriving in the country, and the video posted Saturday sees the group attempting to portray a different narrative.

"When I entered the land of the caliphate, I saw that there were different things, institutions, cleanliness, engineers, doctors, sensible people, people who left Europe, who left other lands from across the world to knowingly come fight jihad completely honestly," the man said.

Middle East-bound teens 'stopped at Sydney airport'
Sydney (AFP) March 8, 2015 - Australia Sunday said it stopped two teenage brothers at Sydney Airport believed to be heading to the Middle East to fight, amid growing concern in Western countries over young people joining jihadist groups.

Immigration Minister Peter Dutton said the two boys, aged 16 and 17 and from Sydney, had tickets to an undisclosed Middle Eastern country and raised the suspicions of customs officers on Friday night.

The case came as the families of three British schoolgirls who left their London homes to join Islamic State (IS) militants in Syria in February criticised authorities for not warning them their children risked being radicalised.

"These two young men... are kids, not killers, and they shouldn't be allowed to go to a foreign land to fight and to come back to our shores eventually more radicalised," Dutton told reporters.

"In some cases, these young people who are going off to fight in areas like Syria will be killed themselves and that's a tragedy for their families, for their communities, and for our country."

The minister said a search of the boys' luggage raised more questions about their trip and they were referred to the federal police's counter-terrorism unit.

He said the two youths "had taken a very radical decision ultimately without the knowledge of their parents".

"Their parents, as I understand it, were as shocked as any of us would be."

An Australian Federal Police spokeswoman said in a statement that the boys, whose identities were not released, were "arrested under suspicion of attempting to prepare for incursions into foreign countries for the purpose of engaging in hostile activities".

They were later handed back to their parents and an investigation is ongoing, she said.