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Floods set to clip Australian growth

by Staff Writers
Sydney (AFP) Jan 9, 2011
Massive floods sweeping through northeastern Australia will temporarily slow growth in the resources-driven economy, but will not derail the "Wonder from Down Under", analysts say.

As the only advanced economy to avoid recession triggered by the global financial crisis, Australia was riding high on annual growth of 2.7 percent driven by mining exports to Asia before the "biblical" floods hit.

But with dozens of mines swamped by the muddy floodwaters, entire crops wiped out and the struggling tourism sector suffering amid the deluge, there are fears the economic impact may linger after the waters recede.

"There's no doubt that the floods will be expensive. They'll be expensive for the government in terms of natural disaster relief payments to individuals, to communities, to councils," Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser said.

"But they're also going to cost business a lot of money."

Mining is a particular concern as Queensland provides about half the world's needs for coking coal used in the steel-making industry and the floodwaters covering an area the size of France and Germany combined have swamped mines.

Michael Roche, chief executive of the Queensland Resources Council, has said that mining firms are losing "tens of millions of dollars" in lost production.

And with inventories already low, and the clean-up expected to take weeks, there are fears the disruption could seriously limit the coal supplies, driving up prices and raising inflationary pressures throughout the global economy.

"The high prices for coking coal will probably be passed on by steel manufacturers, pushing up prices of steel and therefore construction costs for steel-intensive facilities such as oil refineries and petrochemical facilities," said Tom Grieder at IHS Global Insight.

The floods could not have arrived at a worse time for tourism operators who are already struggling against a rising currency which has hit its highest levels in decades, making Australia a more expensive destination.

And they come just weeks after the government paid $2.3 million to bring talkshow queen Oprah Winfrey Down Under, hoping the multitudes who watch her show will be inspired to visit by her Australian episodes.

The Queensland Tourism Industry Council has estimated the floods could cost as much as Aus$100 million ($99.5 million) in the state which boasts the Great Barrier Reef, tropical rainforests and pristine beaches.

"These floods are severely affecting tourism in some regions of Queensland," said Daniel Gschwind, chief executive of the Tourism Industry Council. "It is a massive flood event that is very disruptive."

Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, said the floods would have "a significant economic impact", shaving about 0.5 percent from gross domestic product (or about $6 billion) over the December and March quarters.

"Disruption to Queensland coal exports will be the big driver, along with reduced agricultural production (both volumes and yield quality) and the disruption to industries such as tourism, retailing and transport," he said.

Fruit and vegetable prices could also spike by 10-20 percent, he said.

But he said there was a danger in exaggerating the economic impact because problems would likely be only temporary and not strongly impact on growth on the year as a whole, which he pinned at 3.5 percent in the 12 months to December 2011.

The mining sector was expected to rebound sharply in the June quarter and agriculture in the second half of the year while the billions spent in the clean-up and rebuilding phase would boost growth over time, he said.

Economists at ANZ agreed, saying while immense in scale and devastating to many communities, the Queensland floods would have only a minor and temporary impact on growth.

"Delays in coal production and exports will have the largest impact, the risks to which do not seem to be reflected in prices, while agriculture production should be less affected in aggregate due to favourable timing," it said.

-- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this story --



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