Researchers at the University of Cambridge have developed a predictive model to forecast when and where these swarms will form, enabling targeted interventions to mitigate the impact. This model uses weather forecast data from the UK Met Office combined with advanced computational models of locust movements to predict swarm trajectories as they seek feeding and breeding sites. Affected areas can then be proactively treated with pesticides.
Historically, efforts to manage locust swarms have been inconsistent. The new model, published in PLOS Computational Biology, offers a reliable method for national agencies to act quickly against developing threats.
"During a desert locust outbreak, we can now predict where swarms will go several days in advance, so we can control them at particular sites. And if they're not controlled at those sites, we can predict where they'll go next so preparations can be made there," said Dr. Renata Retkute of Cambridge's Department of Plant Sciences, the study's lead author.
Professor Chris Gilligan, also from the Department of Plant Sciences and senior author of the study, added, "Our model will allow us to hit the ground running in future, rather than starting from scratch as has historically been the case."
The model was developed in response to the locust upsurge between 2019 and 2021, which stretched from Kenya to India and severely impacted wheat production and other crops, including sugarcane, maize, and sorghum. The researchers identified inefficiencies in managing this outbreak due to the lack of a unified system to gather and analyze data.
"The response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We've created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest," Retkute said.
This innovative system stands out by accurately predicting locust behavior based on their lifecycle, breeding site preferences, and movement patterns. It has been tested using real data from the 2019-2021 outbreak and is designed to assist national governments and international organizations, including the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).
As climate change intensifies events such as cyclones and heavy rainfall, desert locust outbreaks are expected to become more frequent, bringing greater challenges to regions unprepared for such crises. The researchers emphasize that improved planning and preparation, supported by tools like this model, are critical to mitigating the effects of future infestations.
Research Report:A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal
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