China's Xi plays peacemaker on Russia visit

China's Xi plays peacemaker on Russia visit
By Matthew WALSH
Beijing (AFP) March 19, 2023

President Xi Jinping heads to Russia on Monday hoping to deliver a breakthrough on Ukraine as China seeks to position itself as a peacemaker.

Freshly reappointed for a third term in power, Xi is pushing a greater role for China on the global stage, and was crucial in mediating a surprise rapprochement between Middle Eastern rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia this month.

Rumours that he may soon hold his first call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky since the outbreak of war have raised hopes in Western capitals that Xi may lean on his "old friend" Putin to stop his bloody invasion during the three-day state visit.

Announcing the trip Friday, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China would "play a constructive role in promoting peace talks".

"Stopping the war is everyone's wish, given Europe stands to lose such a lot and the United States may not be able to support Ukraine for as long as it thinks it can," said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Beijing's Renmin University of China.

"China can put forth its views on both sides -- it can say it is a trusted friend of both Ukraine and Russia. I think this is very significant."

Beijing, a major Russian ally, has long sought to depict itself as a neutral party to the conflict.

But it has refused to condemn Russia's invasion and has sharply criticised Washington's support for Kyiv -- leading Western leaders to accuse Beijing of providing diplomatic cover for Russia to bludgeon its European neighbour.

"Beijing has done remarkably little so far to encourage peace in Ukraine, since any credible effort would require pressuring Russia or at least calling Russia out directly," said Elizabeth Wishnick, a professor and Chinese foreign policy expert at Montclair State University in the United States.

Xi's trip -- which comes after the International Criminal Court on Friday announced an arrest warrant for Putin on war crimes accusations -- aims "to show whatever support for his strategic partner he can provide, short of aid that would result in sanctions", she told AFP.

- Much talk, little substance -

Seeking to play the peacemaker, China last month published a 12-point position paper on the war in Ukraine, calling for dialogue and respect for all countries' territorial sovereignty.

Beijing has also touted its Global Security Initiative (GSI), a hallmark Xi policy that aims to "promote durable peace and development".

Both documents have drawn ire in the West for dwelling on broad principles instead of practical solutions to the crisis.

China's recent diplomacy around the war appeared to be "an attempt to highlight" the GSI and "build momentum for its foreign policy and re-engagement with the world", said Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.

"Whether (China) is actually stepping up its efforts to play peacemaker in a meaningful way will depend on the substance of what it proposes during meetings with leaders from Ukraine and Russia," said Chong, who specialises in Beijing's international relations.

"Their previous peace plan was more about general principles than actionable proposals."

- 'Not impartial' -

Beijing's efforts to show itself to be an international mediator were front and centre this month when it oversaw a deal that restored diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

It later emerged that Xi himself offered for China to serve as a "bridge" between the rivals, challenging Washington's long-standing role as the main external power broker in the Middle East.

"Brokering the (Saudi-Iran) deal feeds into the Chinese government's narrative of being a positive-sum global player promoting peace and cooperation that contrasts with Washington's purportedly destabilising actions," said University of Southern California assistant professor Audrye Wong.

But stilling the gunfire in Ukraine would be "somewhat harder" than the Saudi-Iran deal, said Wang of Renmin University, citing China's "limited" influence over Moscow and US backing for Kyiv.

Beijing, he suggested, could help usher in "an armistice similar to the one formed from the Korean War" that stops the fighting but kicks questions of territorial sovereignty further down the road.

But Wishnick, of Montclair State, said Ukraine was "unlikely to accept China as a mediator since it is not viewed as neutral or impartial".

"Xi may be eager for diplomatic successes, but I just don't see one on the horizon in Ukraine," she said.

"Neither side is willing to give up hope yet for territorial gains on the battlefield."

Putin, Xi to usher 'new era' in ties during Moscow visit
Moscow (AFP) March 17, 2023 - Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader President Xi Jinping will sign accords ushering in a "new era" of ties in Moscow next week, the Kremlin said Friday.

Xi will be in Russia from Monday to Wednesday, Beijing and Moscow announced, for talks with his strategic ally just over a year into Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.

Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov said Putin and Xi would sign a key declaration "on strengthening (the two countries') comprehensive partnership and strategic relations entering a new era."

China's foreign ministry called Xi's trip "a visit for peace" that aimed to "practice true multilateralism... improve global governance and make contributions to the development and progress of the world".

The two leaders would exchange views on relations between their countries, and major international and regional issues, ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters.

"The world has entered a new period of turmoil," he said.

"China will uphold its objective and fair position on the Ukrainian crisis and play a constructive role in promoting peace talks," he added.

In comments carried by Russian news agencies, Ushakov said the Kremlin "highly valued" Beijing's "restrained and considered position" on the conflict.

- Dialogue and respect -

Xi, 69, began a third five-year term as president this month in a break with longstanding precedent.

His visit to Russia comes just over a year after Putin, 70, sent troops to Ukraine, kicking off a conflict that has isolated Moscow on the international stage.

China, a major Russian ally, has sought to position itself as a neutral party, urging Moscow and Kyiv to resolve it through negotiations.

In a 12-point position paper on the conflict last month, China called for dialogue and respect for all countries' territorial sovereignty.

But Western leaders have repeatedly criticised Beijing for failing to condemn Russia's offensive, accusing it of providing Moscow with diplomatic cover for its assault.

The United States has accused China of mulling arms shipments to support Russia's campaign -- claims Beijing has strongly denied.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February he was planning to meet Xi after Beijing called for talks. The Chinese foreign ministry did not confirm on Friday whether he planned to do so.

The two nations' foreign ministers held a telephone call on Thursday, the first since China's Qin Gang took office.

- China the peacemaker? -

Qin urged Kyiv and Moscow to restart peace talks "as soon as possible", adding that "China is concerned that the crisis could escalate and get out of control".

His Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba said the call included discussion of "the significance of the principle of territorial integrity", without giving details.

Formerly socialist allies with a tempestuous relationship, China and Russia have deepened economic, military and political cooperation recently as part of their "no limits" partnership.

Both sides have frequently emphasised the close relationship between Putin and Xi.

Xi last visited Russia in 2019, while Putin attended the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Beijing last year and the two leaders also met at a regional security gathering in Uzbekistan in September.

Xi also helped spur a China-mediated deal to restore ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia last week.

"Whether (China) is actually stepping up its efforts to play peacemaker in a meaningful way will depend on the substance of what it proposes during meetings with leaders from Ukraine and Russia," said Ja-Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.

The announcement of Xi's visit came after Poland this week said Warsaw would deliver an initial batch of four MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, in what would be the first such shipment by a NATO member.

- Fighter jets -

Slovakia followed up Friday with an offer of 13 MiG-29 warplanes for Kyiv, which has urged allies to send fighter jets ahead of an expected uptick spring offensive.

"We're giving these MiGs to Ukraine so that it can protect civilians against the many bombs that fall on their houses and which are the reason why people are dying in Ukraine," said Prime Minister Eduard Heger.

He told reporters that Bratislava would also deliver a Kub air defence system to Ukraine.

The batch will include 10 operational jets and an additional three that have not been in use since 2008.

Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Nad said the transfer would take "a couple of weeks".

"Our steps are fully coordinated with Poland and Ukraine," Heger said, adding that his government "stands on the right side of history".

Ukraine had been primarily seeking modern US-made F-16s.

The Kremlin said the weapons would have no impact on the battlefield.

"All this equipment will be destroyed," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

US says Chinese call for Ukraine ceasefire would aid 'Russian conquest'
Washington (AFP) March 17, 2023 - The United States opposes Chinese calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine, saying this would simply consolidate "Russian conquest" and allow the Kremlin to prepare a new offensive, a White House spokesman said Friday.

"We don't support calls for a ceasefire right now," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters ahead of next week's visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

"We certainly don't support calls for a ceasefire that would be called for by the PRC in a meeting in Moscow that would simply benefit Russia," he said, using China's official acronym -- the People's Republic of China.

The United States, which is leading a Western coalition to arm Ukraine and support its defense against the more-than-year-long invasion by Russia, is concerned that making a ceasefire the priority would relieve pressure on Russian forces and give the Kremlin an opportunity to consolidate its grip on swaths of territory.

"A ceasefire now is... effectively the ratification of Russian conquest," Kirby said.

"Russia would be free then to use a ceasefire to only further entrench their positions in Ukraine, to rebuild, refit and refresh their forces so they can restart attacks on Ukraine at a time of their choosing."

"We do not believe this is a step toward a just and durable peace."

Kirby reiterated that President Joe Biden plans to talk by phone with Xi but said that arrangements have not even started.

"There is no call scheduled. While the president has made it clear he wants, he looks forward to another opportunity to speak with President Xi, we're not actively engaged in the logistics of setting that up right now," he said.

"To my knowledge, there's been no outreach to the Chinese to work on the logistics."

US officials are watching closely whether China will extend its diplomatic support for Russia during the war to military assistance, such as ammunition or weaponry.

Kirby said Beijing has not "taken it off the table, but we also haven't seen any indications, any confirmation, that they've made a decision to move in that direction or have actually provided" weapons.