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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's May consumer inflation at near 3-year high
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) June 14, 2011

China's politically sensitive inflation rate hit its highest level in nearly three years in May, the government said Tuesday, despite persistent official efforts to tame food and property costs.

The consumer price index rose 5.5 percent year-on-year in May, up from 5.3 percent in April and far above Beijing's annual target of 4.0 percent, as food prices soared following power shortages and crippling droughts in some regions.

It was the highest rate since July 2008, when the index rose 6.3 percent.

The data has fuelled expectations for further monetary tightening in the coming weeks as authorities -- anxious about inflation's potential to spark social unrest -- try to stem a flood of credit in the economy.

The world's second-largest economy is "still facing significant inflationary pressures" and must implement measures to contain prices, National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Laiyun told a news conference.

Royal Bank of Canada senior strategist Brian Jackson said another interest rate hike was likely before the end of June, which would take the number of increases to five since October, followed by another move in the third quarter.

"We expect price pressures will ease later in the year, but in the very near-term, headline measures of inflation are above Beijing's comfort level," Jackson said in a research note.

"This suggests that more rate hikes are likely over the next few months ... we also expect Beijing will tolerate further gains in the yuan against the dollar as part of its efforts to curb inflation."

Beijing has allowed the yuan to strengthen more than five percent against the greenback since vowing a year ago to let it trade more freely, following intense international pressure for a stronger currency.

IHS Global Insight analyst Alistair Thornton agreed with Jackson, but said the rate hike could be pushed back until July due to worsening inflation.

Investors reacted positively to the data, with Shanghai shares rising 1.01 percent to 2,727.57 by midday as a number of analysts said the figures showed China was not heading for a hard landing.

Output from the country's thousands of workshops and factories rose 13.3 percent from a year earlier in May, slightly slower than the 13.4 percent in April amid electricity shortages and a government clampdown on bank lending.

Fixed asset investment for the January-May period rose 25.8 percent on year, up from 25.4 percent in the first four months of the year.

Retail sales rose 16.9 percent year-on-year in May.

Apart from industrial output, there were other signs the Asian powerhouse slowed in May -- year-on-year auto sales fell for the second straight month, new loans dropped more than expected and manufacturing activity lost steam.

Some experts are concerned that authorities may have gone too far in trying to slow the economy, which grew a blistering 9.7 percent in the first quarter, and the tightening measures could trigger a hard landing.

Beyond the interest rate hikes, Beijing has repeatedly raised the amount of money that banks must keep in reserve to stem credit growth.

But Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting said "a hard landing is a low-probability event" and the robust fixed-asset investment figure may ease concerns about a "coming collapse" in China.

While Jackson said the data showed "growth is moderating in response to recent policy measures" but there was "little to suggest that Beijing needs to worry about a hard landing in coming months".




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BoJ holds rates, expands growth-sector lending
Tokyo (AFP) June 14, 2011 - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday left its key rate unchanged at between zero and 0.1 percent and said it would expand a programme of lending to companies in growth areas to support the economy.

The BoJ's policy panel voted unanimously after a two-day meeting to keep rates unchanged while expanding last June's 3 trillion yen ($37.4 billion) lending facility to encourage banks to channel funds into sectors such as renewable energy and medicine.

The central bank will offer a new credit line of up to 500 billion yen under a new facility designed to make it easier for smaller firms to access cash from banks without using traditional real estate collateral.

Each bank can borrow up to 50 billion yen at 0.1 percent annual interest for up to four years.

"With a view to further encourage financial institutions' efforts, the bank deems it appropriate to focus on supporting their provision of equity-like funds and loans without conventional collateral or guarantees," the central bank said in a statement.

The BoJ also slightly upgraded its assessment of the economy, which "continues to face downward pressure, mainly on the production side due to the effects of the earthquake disaster but is showing some signs of picking up."

The BoJ said the Japanese economy was likely to return to " a moderate recovery path" in the second half of the year.

The world's third-largest economy plunged back into recession in January-March, contracting on the impact of the nation's biggest recorded earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear emergency that sent Japan into its worst post-war crisis.

In the aftermath of the earthquake, the BoJ injected a record amount of cash into the banking system and doubled an asset purchase fund to 10 trillion yen, a key policy tool it kept unchanged Tuesday.

It also set up a separate lending scheme for banks in quake-hit areas to ensure financial institutions in disaster-hit areas can meet demand for post-quake reconstruction funds.

The 9.0-magnitude earthquake and a tsunami on March 11 destroyed entire towns and left more than 23,000 dead or missing while crippling the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, leading to radiation leaks and power shortages.

Many of Japan's biggest firms were forced to suspend plants and slow output due to the quake's impact on supply chains and power supply, which heavily disrupted production.

Sentiment among large Japanese companies tumbled to its lowest in two years during April-June, a government survey showed Tuesday, after the impact of the March 11 disasters.

The index measuring the mood among big companies stood at minus 22.0 in the second quarter compared with minus 1.1 in the previous three months, a joint survey by the Finance Ministry and the Cabinet Office showed.

It was the lowest reading since minus 22.4 in April-June 2009, when Japan's economy was struggling amid the global financial crisis.





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