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NUKEWARS
China 'shocked' by Kim Jong-Il death
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Dec 19, 2011


China expressed shock at the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il on Monday, as analysts said Beijing would do all it could to shore up its close ally, fearing instability on its border.

The foreign ministry in Beijing said it hoped North Koreans would "remain united" after their leader's death, and pledged to help maintain "peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the region".

"We are shocked to learn that DPRK top leader comrade Kim Jong-Il passed away and we hereby express our deep condolences on his demise and send sincere regards to the DPRK people," said ministry spokesman Liu Weimin, using the official name for the Stalinist state.

North Korea's official media announced on Monday that Kim, who suffered a stroke in 2008 but had appeared to recover, had died of a heart attack at the age of 69 and that his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, would succeed him.

But there are fears in Beijing that Jong-Un has not had enough time to cement control over the country's government and military, and analysts said his father's sudden death would be a source of concern to China's leaders.

Jong-Un, who is in his late 20s, was given senior ruling party posts and made a four-star general in September 2010, despite his lack of any military experience.

"I think China will be very concerned because they were very keen to see a smooth succession between Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Un," said Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, a Beijing-based analyst for the International Crisis Group.

"The idea was Kim Jong-Il would be around for another couple of years and would be able to fully put into place the mechanisms necessary for a transition of power. They have got to make sure he (Jong-Un) doesn't stumble."

Beijing is likely to strengthen support for its impoverished neighbour as it seeks to avoid a potentially destabilising power struggle in North Korea at a time when many of the country's 24 million people are starving, analysts said.

China is also likely to come under international pressure to use its influence to dissuade the unpredictable nuclear-armed regime from carrying out more military provocations like those that rattled Asia last year.

"It is dangerous in a sense that if the succession arrangement does not work there could be chaos," Professor Joseph Cheng of Hong Kong City University told AFP.

Beijing "certainly wants to avoid any kind of meltdown in North Korea because that would be destabilising along the border."

Observers in South Korea of the hermit state however played down fears of an immediate power struggle or a military coup.

University of California professor Susan Shirk said Chinese authorities would "do the most they can to be helpful," saying Beijing might also increase desperately needed aid to North Korea.

UN agencies have said that some six million people in the country urgently need food but a $73 million appeal for the North has only been 34 percent funded this year.

More than 21,700 North Koreans have fled their hunger-stricken homeland since the 1950-1953 Korean War, the vast majority in recent years as the food shortage worsened.

They typically escape on foot to neighbouring China before travelling to a third country. Beijing is worried that if the North Korea regime were to collapse, China could be flooded with millions of refugees.

Chinese news websites devoted extensive coverage to Kim's death, including family snapshots and photographs of Kim meeting senior Chinese leaders.

A black and white banner was splashed across the top of news web portals announcing the leader's death in a show of respect.

China's state CCTV television network also showed footage of North Koreans sobbing on the relatively deserted streets of Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-Il visited China twice this year, most recently in August when he told Beijing he was ready to resume six-party nuclear disarmament talks without preconditions.

But analysts said his sudden death at the weekend had dashed hopes of negotiations resuming any time soon.

"It will be some time before the new leaders of the DPRK will come back to the six-party talks," said Liu Youfa, vice president of the China Institute of International Studies, a government think tank.

"The domestic issues such as economic reforms are more pressing at the moment."

For several months there have been diplomatic efforts to restart the talks -- involving the two Koreas, the US, China, Russia and Japan -- which the North quit in April 2009, a month before staging its second nuclear test.

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Scenarios as North Korea faces succession challenge
Seoul (AFP) Dec 19, 2011 - The shock announcement Monday of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il's death has raised fears of turbulence in the nuclear-armed nation which has been plunged into a second dynastic succession.

Kim's youngest son Kim Jong-Un has been declared in state media as the nation's next leader but little is known about him or his path to power.

Following are some scenarios of how events might unfold.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW?

Kim Jong-Il's body is to lie in state in Kumsusan palace where the embalmed body of his father -- Kim Il-Sung, the founder and "eternal leader" of North Korea who died in 1994 -- is on display.

After Kim's funeral on December 28, thoughts will turn to the succession but there are few details as to how it will be carried out. Kim Jong-Un's status as heir apparent was only made clear in September 2010.

Even Kim Jong-Il, who was openly groomed for the leadership and designated as successor some 14 years before his own father died, did not formally take over the leadership of the ruling party for three years afterwards.

WHO IS IN CHARGE?

The workings of the North Korean leadership -- which managed to keep the leader's death a secret for two days -- are notoriously opaque.

But all the signs so far are that Kim Jong-Un is being installed as the nation's new leader under the guidance of his aunt and uncle who will act as his mentors and as a backstop for a young man with no power base of his own.

Jang Song-Thaek, husband of Kim Jong-Il's only sibling Kim Kyong-Hui, expanded his influence rapidly after the leader suffered a stroke in 2008, forcing the succession plans to be accelerated.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

North Korea has a track record of erratic and aggressive behaviour which has alarmed its neighbours and the international community.

Some observers are fearful that the young leader, who has little public profile and no military experience despite being made a four-star general last year, may show his mettle with nuclear tests or military provocations.

Relations with South Korea have been icy since two deadly border incidents blamed on the North last year, which were rumoured to be linked to a show of force by Kim as he tried to ensure his son's succession.

COULD NORTH KOREA IMPLODE?

Many experts believe that North Korea's elites have a powerful vested interest in maintaining the status quo, and that they are not likely to rock the boat unless they have to.

Analysts say turbulence is unlikely, at least in the short term. However, if Kim Jong-Un fails and a messy power struggle ensues, North Korea heads into uncharted territory.

In the meantime, the new leader, who comes into the job with a host of challenges including severe food shortages in a nation which has seen famine in the past, is not expected to adopt an ambitious agenda.

WHY DOES NORTH KOREA MATTER?

North Korea is a formidable enemy, with some 1.19 million men under arms, as well as an arsenal of chemical and conventional weapons including thousands of short- and medium-range missiles.

It has also test-launched Taepodong missiles in its quest for an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially strike the United States.

Most estimates say the North has enough plutonium to build six to eight atomic weapons, but it is unclear whether it can make nuclear warheads for its missiles.

Efforts to denuclearise North Korea through six-nation talks including the US and China have dominated regional diplomacy in recent years.



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NUKEWARS
US, South Korea close ranks after Kim death
Washington (AFP) Dec 19, 2011
The United States swiftly closed ranks with its ally South Korea Monday as the death of nuclear-armed North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Il landed President Barack Obama with a sudden foreign policy crisis. Obama called his close friend President Lee Myung-Bak of South Korea at midnight on the US east coast as Washington and its regional allies digested the death of the Stalinist state's volatile ... read more


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