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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing unexpectedly shrinks in January
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Feb 1, 2015


China home prices break falling streak in January: survey
Beijing (AFP) Jan 31, 2015 - China's housing prices rose in January for the first time in nine months, a survey showed Saturday, breaking a decline that has weighed on growth in the world's second-largest economy.

The average price of a new home in China's 100 major cities rose 0.21 percent from December to 10,564 yuan ($1,690) per square metre, according to the independent China Index Academy, the first rise since April 2014.

The figure represents a turnaround from December's 0.44 percent decline, according to academy data.

On a year-on-year basis, however, prices were down 3.09 percent in January, greater than the 2.69 percent recorded last month, the statement said.

"Overall, with the real estate market expected to continue its turn for the better, prices in the 100 cities stabilised in the first month of the new year," said the statement.

"This month, prises have clearly risen in an increasing number of cities, including all of the first-tier cities," it added.

The average price in the top 10 cities grew to 18,990 yuan per square metre, down 1.23 percent from a year ago, the statement said.

As in December, Beijing, Shanghai and the southern boom town of Shenzhen were the only three top 10 cities to see annual price rises, it said, with Shanghai the best performer with a 1.92 percent increase to 32,278 yuan per square metre.

Prices in the eastern city of Hangzhou, meanwhile, declined 10.95 percent from last year to 16,215 yuan per square metre.

China has previously sought to rein in runaway property prices, a source of discontent among ordinary citizens, by introducing market control measures including limits on buying second and third homes.

But local authorities rely on the property sector for a significant proportion of their income, and many cities rolled back some of the measures last year as China's economy slowed and the central government relented.

The central bank in September eased mortgage policies for the real estate sector and in November imposed a surprise interest rate cut -- the first in more than two years -- that analysts said would benefit home buyers the most.

China's manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in more than two years in January, an official survey showed Sunday, signalling further downward pressure on the world's second-largest economy.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 49.8 last month, down from 50.1 recorded in December.

The index, which tracks activity in factories and workshops, is considered a key indicator of the health of China's economy, a major driver of global growth. A figure above 50 signals expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

January's figure was the first contraction for 27 months.

British banking giant HSBC said last month that a preliminary reading of its own PMI edged up to 49.8 in January from a final reading of 49.6 in December. It was at the break-even point of 50.0 in November.

The bank is scheduled to release its final PMI figure on Monday.

ANZ Banking Group said in a research report that the NBS figures were unexpected, particularly given "favourable seasonal factors".

"The Chinese New Year falls into late February this year, while it was in late January last year," ANZ said.

"Past experience suggests that there could be significant front loading effect before the Chinese New Year, which would provide short-term impetus to the manufacturing industry."

China's central bank surprised economists in November by cutting benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years, in a move interpreted as an attempt to shore up flagging growth.

The People's Bank of China lowered its one-year rate for deposits by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent and its one-year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent.

The Chinese economy is struggling with not just stalling factory growth, but also other problems including soft exports and the weakening property market.

It grew 7.4 percent in 2014, slower than the 7.7 percent in 2013 and the worst since the 3.8 percent recorded in 1990.

Authorities had for months used various kinds of limited stimulatory measures such as targeted cuts in bank reserve requirements -- aimed at freeing up funds for lending -- and a cash injection into the country's five biggest banks for re-lending.

But top leaders say they are ready to tolerate slower expansion and will avoid aggressive measures to boost growth as the government seeks to shift the economy away from its dependence on investment and exports towards more sustainable consumer-driven growth.

Premier Li Keqiang said last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was determined to bring changes that would deliver "quality growth" rather than just a high top-line figure.


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