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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China inflation slows to 2.3% in June: govt
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) July 09, 2014


HSBC cuts Hong Kong stocks outlook, citing protests
Hong Kong (AFP) July 08, 2014 - Activists Tuesday questioned an HSBC report which downgraded Hong Kong's investment outlook due to fears over a pro-democracy movement -- but was then altered to tone down the emphasis on public unrest.

Discontent in the semi-autonomous Chinese city is at its highest in years, with tens of thousands taking to the streets last week to protest at Beijing's insistence that it vet candidates before a vote in 2017 for Hong Kong's next leader.

HSBC's third-quarter global equity report on Monday cut the former British colony's stock market, one of the region's biggest, to "underweight", a rating it uses to describe underperforming stocks.

"We reduce Hong Kong to underweight on concerns about negative news flow. 'Occupy Central', a campaign for greater democracy, could sour relations with China and may hurt the economy," the report said.

The Occupy Central campaign -- strongly criticised by Beijing -- has pledged to stage a mass sit-in at the main business district, where HSBC's Hong Kong offices are based, unless city leaders commit to acceptable electoral reforms.

However, HSBC's report was later amended to emphasise other concerns.

The updated report said the new rating was due to "the risk of weak residential real estate prices, the slowdown in mainland tourist arrivals, the market's link to US interest rates... and weak earnings momentum", before mentioning Occupy.

An HSBC spokesman refused to comment on why it had been changed.

"HSBC is a respected financial institution and their reports must be under very strict scrutiny before they are released, so it's very strange for it to be changed in such a way," Occupy organiser Benny Tai told AFP.

"As a reasonable person, one could suspect political factors were behind (it)."

Tai said the sit-in campaign would be peaceful and "beneficial" to Hong Kong's economy in the long-term.

- Question of confidence -

Independent financial analyst Francis Lun believed that HSBC had issued the original report to please the Chinese government.

"Now they're trying to distance themselves, even they realise that they made a mistake," he told AFP, adding that business confidence in Hong Kong was undented.

"Beijing is trying to galvanise the pro-Beijing camp and the businesses, trying to get everyone to toe the central government's line," Lun said.

Beijing's state-run media has called the Occupy Central plan illegal and said it could damage the city's economy, while some local business groups have run newspaper advertisements opposing it.

An executive of the pro-reform Chinese-language newspaper Apple Daily alleged in a Wall Street Journal interview last month that HSBC and Standard Chartered had pulled advertising from the paper in late 2013 after a request by Beijing.

Neither bank has confirmed the report.

More than 500 people were arrested when police cleared a sit-in protest in Central, following a major pro-democracy march on July 1 to mark the anniversary of the city's handover from Britain to China.

Beijing has promised to let all Hong Kong residents vote for their next leader in 2017 -- currently a 1,200-strong pro-Beijing committee chooses the chief executive.

But it says candidates must be approved by a nomination committee, which democracy advocates fear will mean only pro-Beijing figures are allowed to stand.

The city was handed over from Britain to China in 1997 under an agreement that guarantees civil liberties, including the right to protest.

Chinese inflation slowed to 2.3 percent in June from a four-month high of 2.5 percent in May, official data showed Wednesday, giving authorities further room to stimulate growth in the world's second-largest economy.

The country's consumer price index -- a main gauge of inflation -- also rose 2.3 percent in the first six months of the year from the same period in 2013, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

The result compared with the median forecast of a 2.4 percent gain in a survey of 21 economists by The Wall Street Journal, but is well below the 3.5 percent annual target set by Beijing in March.

It comes as concerns earlier this year over economic prospects for China -- a key driver of world growth -- have eased owing to a pick-up in key indicators in the second quarter and some limited steps by authorities to boost the economy.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent in January-March, weaker than the 7.7 percent recorded in the final three months of last year and the worst result since a 7.4 percent expansion in the third quarter of 2012.

But growth in industrial output and retail sales accelerated in May, with consumption increasing at its fastest pace since December, official data showed last month, in signs of renewed strength.

China announces second-quarter GDP results on July 16.

Authorities have since April introduced measures to boost growth, including tax breaks for small enterprises, targeted infrastructure outlays and incentives to encourage lending in rural areas and to small companies.

Economists have dubbed the steps a "mini-stimulus", in contrast to the massive pump-priming that took place in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, something leaders say is not on the cards now.

- Room for more -

But analysts said the tame price situation meant further steps could be be taken.

"The subdued inflation outlook provides room for the authorities to launch more targeted stimulus policies in the second half of this year," ANZ Bank economists Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao wrote in an analysis of the June data.

They suggested that "further monetary policy easing across the board will still be needed to help lift the confidence in China's economy".

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, in remarks on Monday at a joint news conference with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel, said China's growth improved in the second quarter but that more will be done to underpin it in the face of "downward pressure".

China will "not adopt strong stimulus" but rather "will increase the strength of targeted measures", Li said.

"We will further push forward reforms and opening-up and make more efforts to reform (the) government approval system and lower market access thresholds."

Food was the main driver of inflation in June, rising 3.7 percent year-on-year, according to the NBS data, with fruit prices up 19.8 percent. Still, food cost increases slowed from the 4.1 percent recorded in May.

The producer price index (PPI) -- a measure of costs for goods at the factory gate and a leading indicator of the trend for CPI -- improved to a decline of 1.1 percent in June, the NBS said in a separate statement, its highest showing in more than two years.

The result compared with a decrease of 1.4 percent in May and was the highest since a 0.7 percent decline in April 2012, according to official data. The last PPI increase was in January 2012, when it rose 0.7 percent.

Li announced in March that China's economic growth target for this year is "around 7.5 percent", the same objective as for 2013.

In the event, GDP grew 7.7 percent last year, the same as 2012, matching the worst pace since 7.6 percent in 1999.

"We expect Beijing to continue rolling out a slew of small-scale measures to deliver the around 7.5 percent annual growth target," Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Lu Ting and Zhi Xiaojia said in a research note.

"But we believe Beijing will resist calls for universal measures such as cutting benchmark rates and cutting RRR for all banks," they added, referring to the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash banks must keep on hand.

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