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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China gives currency largest boost in a decade
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Nov 2, 2015


China manufacturing activity shrinks for 3rd straight month: govt
Beijing (AFP) Nov 1, 2015 - Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector shrank in October for the third straight month, officials said Sunday, fuelling fears that growth in the world's second largest economy is slowing faster than policymakers admit.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), tracking activity in the factory and workshop sector, was unchanged from the previous month at 49.8, the state statistics office said.

A PMI figure above 50 signals expanding activity while anything below indicates shrinkage.

The economy grew at 6.9 percent between July and September this year, according to official figures, the slowest pace since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009.

But many analysts believe China's actual growth is significantly lower, pointing to weakness in trade data and to alternative indicators such as the PMI.

Beijing says growth will slow as the economy transitions from reliance on investment and exports towards consumption, but it will avoid a "hard landing".

The government has taken a series of measures to stimulate growth. On October 23 it abolished the official cap on interest rates for savers and cut interest rates by 0.25 percent -- the sixth reduction in a year.

But government intervention intended to halt a stock market rout this summer has increased doubts over policymakers' competence in managing a transition to a more market-based economy.

The latest figure shows ongoing "sluggish" economic activity, Australian bank ANZ said in a statement.

"While the PMI has stabilised, it is too early to confirm a bottoming out," it said, adding that further monetary easing was likely.

A survey of China's real estate sector -- a pillar of the economy in recent decades -- showed modest price increases.

The average price of a new home in 100 major cities rose by about two percent in October compared to the same month last year, according to the China Index Academy.

The month-on-month increase from September was a more modest 0.3 percent as average prices reached 10,849 yuan ($1,700) per square metre.

The Academy added that recent interest rate cuts had increased sales.

Analysts estimate that the booming property sector contributed around 15 percent of China's growth in recent years.

But like manufacturing it has faced downward pressure, with some cities suffering from a housing glut.

China raised the central rate for its yuan currency by the largest amount in a decade Monday, officials and reports said, just three months after a surprise devaluation sent shockwaves through global markets.

The world's second largest economy adjusted the yuan's mid-rate upwards by 0.54 percent against the US dollar, according to an announcement by the central People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Bloomberg News reported that the increase was the largest since 2005, when Beijing unpegged the yuan from the dollar.

China now allows the currency to trade up or down two percent from the centrally set daily rate on the domestic foreign exchange market.

Authorities moved the yuan almost five percent lower in one week in August, saying it was part of broader reforms aimed at shifting towards a more flexible exchange rate.

But the move raised concerns abroad that the Chinese economy was performing worse than had been acknowledged, and fears that Beijing was trying to make its exports cheaper to give it a boost.

China has pledged that it would not engage in competitive devaluations.

The move also comes as the country seeks to promote the yuan as a global reserve currency alongside the dollar, an ambition that depends on its willingness and ability to loosen tight restrictions on the currency's trade.

But authorities fear that losing control of the yuan's value will mean giving up a powerful tool for managing the economy, which last quarter experienced its slowest growth in six years.

One major step towards achieving Beijing's goal is convincing the International Monetary Fund to include the yuan in its internal "special drawing rights" reserve currency basket.

The global banking institution updates the components -- currently made up of the dollar, yuan, euro and pound -- every five years, with the next change due to be decided this month.

Liu Jian, an analyst from Bank of Communications, told AFP: "The economy is stabilising, so the expectation of further depreciation has weakened both at home and abroad.

"On the other hand, the policy intention of the government is very obvious. It tries to maintain a stable foreign exchange market and guide the market as the stabilisation is important for yuan to be admitted to the SDR in the coming IMF meeting."


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