"Decoupling" or "derisking" vis-a-vis China are themes repeated over and over by President Joe Biden's administration, but also by his Republican rivals, led by Donald Trump, in this general election year during which China is likely to be the main foreign policy topic.
But the reality is not necessarily so obvious, analysts say, pointing to the growing complexity of supply chains which make it more difficult to identify the trade flows between the world's two largest economies.
On the face of it, there can be no doubt the divergence of the US and Chinese economies is underway; in absolute terms, Chinese imports have not fallen particularly sharply, but regarding market share the decline is significant.
China's share of US imports fell from 22 percent in 2017 to 16 percent today, according to Caroline Freund, an economist specialising in international trade at the University of California.
"That's a really sharp decline in China's share of US imports," she told AFP. "It takes it back to the level China was in 2007, before the global financial crisis."
"Decoupling is definitely happening," she said, adding this isn't necessarily due to shrinking imports from China, but rather the result of a more rapid expansion of trade with other partners like Mexico.
Trade data published by the US Department of Commerce show a more marked increase in Mexican imports, benefiting in particular from the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, or USMCA.
But Mexico is far from alone.
Asian countries -- and Vietnam in particular -- are also benefiting greatly from the redefinition of trans-Pacific trade.
"Yes, Mexico has captured some of that, but the majority of the relocating of production away from China, is now occurring in Taiwan, South Korea, India, Vietnam," former Mexican ambassador to Washington, Arturo Sarukhan, told AFP.
The main reason for the shift, according to Dragoman Global analyst Henry Storey, is that these countries take advantage of their proximity to China, and are therefore able to attract Chinese investment.
- Investing to circumvent -
Vietnam in particular has seen its exports to the United States soar in recent years, rising from $21 billion in 2012 to $136 billion in 2022, to become one of its major trading partners, although the majority of operations there are actually final assembly.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited the Southeast Asian nation last summer to stress the importance of Vietnam in US supply chains without China, underscoring the dramatic change in America's trading relationships.
While the symbol of this visit was a photo of Yellen on an electric scooter assembled in Vietnam, it later transpired that most its components had come from China, the US press discovered afterwards.
It is difficult to trace the origin of products entering the United States, even though assembly is most often the stage at which the famous "made in" label is applied.
And so Chinese companies can often get around trade restrictions.
"Although China is losing market share, I think overall its exports are still trending very strongly," said Storey from Dragoman Global.
"Since Trump's tariffs were imposed in 2018, the fastest growing area of exports is actually the central and western provinces of China," he added.
"The value added share of US imports from China has fallen less than the direct imports," said Freund from the University of California. "So we're getting indirect imports from China via places like Mexico and Vietnam."
This has had a knock-on effect: Chinese investment in Mexico, which until now has been very low, is now rising sharply, causing concern in Washington.
"Mexico is an outlier if you compare it to the rest of Latin America because the Chinese footprint in Mexico is nowhere close to what it is in South American countries that are commodity exporters," said Sarukhan, the former ambassador.
Although the country is not a commodity exporter, there has nevertheless been "an increase in Chinese investment in Mexico," he added.
Washington has been paying close attention to this growing relationship.
During a visit to Mexico City in early December, Janet Yellen agreed with Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro Sanchez to set up a US-Mexican working group to evaluate Chinese investment in the country, particularly in sectors deemed key by the United States.
Chinese official lauds US cooperation, walks back 'wolf warrior' talk
New York (AFP) Jan 9, 2024 -
A senior Chinese official said Tuesday that Beijing did not seek to reshape the global order and sought greater US cooperation, in the latest departure from past hawkish rhetoric.
At an event to mark 45 years since Washington and Beijing established relations, Liu Jianchao, who heads the international division of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee, quoted President Xi Jinping as saying China "will not fight a Cold War, or a hot war, with anyone."
"People in Asia have our own way of dealing with each other which values peace above everything else, and seeks peaceful solutions to all disputes," Liu said at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
"China does not seek to change the current international order. We are one of the builders of the current world order and have benefited from it," he said in fluent English.
"As the world has entered the period of turbulence and transformation, people of all countries are counting on China and the United States to take the lead in resolving more global issues," he said, pointing to cooperation at the COP28 climate summit last month in Dubai.
Relations between the world's two largest economies had sharply deteriorated in recent years, with prominent Chinese diplomats being dubbed "wolf warriors" for their confrontational public statements against the United States.
Asked if there has been a change in approach, Liu said, "I don't really believe that there has always been a kind of wolf warrior diplomacy, and there's no talk about coming back to that diplomacy."
His visit follows a summit in November in California between Xi and President Joe Biden in which China agreed to address key US concerns.
That included by resuming military dialogue and working to combat the manufacture of precursor chemicals to fentanyl, which has fueled an addiction epidemic in the United States.
Liu said China wanted "concrete and visible deliverables" on fentanyl.
US analysts have attributed China's new tone to an eagerness to focus on economic concerns at home, and noted that major gaps remain.
Chief among them is Taiwan, the self-governing democracy which China claims, and has vowed to reunify with -- by force if necessary.
Liu was also measured in his remarks on Taiwan, declining to say how China would respond to its election on Sunday, but saying that the island's status was a "red line" for Beijing.
"We take serious(ly) the statements of the United States not supporting Taiwanese independence, and we hope that the US side will honor its commitment," he said.
- Talks with Iran -
The Biden administration describes Beijing as the top challenger to US primacy -- although it has taken a more measured approach rhetorically than former president Donald Trump, who has made opposition to China a signature issue as he again seeks the White House.
But the Biden team has also sought to put China on the backfoot on major international flashpoints.
After China sought to draw a contrast with staunch US support of Israel in the Israel-Hamas war, the Biden administration called on Beijing to use its influence with Iran to rein in Yemen's Huthi rebels, whose attacks on ships in avowed solidarity with the Palestinians have disrupted global commerce.
Liu, who recently visited Iran, said that China supports "peaceful navigation of cargo ships in that part of the world because it's essential for the world's economy."
But he said China did not know the extent of Tehran's involvement with the Huthis, and that Iranian officials denied to him any advance knowledge of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel that has triggered near-relentless Israeli retaliation on the Gaza Strip.
"I believe that the Iranians are moving about this conflict in a very prudent way," he said.
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