Energy analysts Wood Mackenzie said the record deluge that swamped mines and washed away rail lines disrupted 46 coal projects in Queensland, which represents 55 percent of Australia's energy and steelmaking coal exports.

The affected mines accounted for 91 percent of Australia's hard coking coal exports, key for China and other Asian steelmakers, and Wood Mackenzie warned that the pinch would be felt "strongly" in global markets.

Australia supplies two-thirds of the world's hard coking coal, and prices jumped from $225 a tonne in mid-December to $250 a tonne as the flooding began.

"As the rainfall intensified on the 11th of January, it is reasonable to assume that hard coking coal prices could reach between $400 and $500 per tonne," Wood Mackenzie said in a weekend research note.

Supplies of coking coal had been tight throughout 2010 and most regions were already producing at capacity, meaning "replacement tonnage will be difficult to secure", with bullish Asian growth stoking demand for steel and electricity and working down stockpiles.

Global ratings agency Moody's said prices could exceed the record highs of $350-$375 per tonne seen in January 2008, when Australia was hit by similar but less severe flooding, warning of "pronounced" global impacts.

"The Queensland coal crisis is bad news for steelmakers worldwide, especially for those without supply contracts in place," Moody's said.

"The current (metallurgical) coal price spikes could nearly double the cost of producing a tonne of steel. Asian steel producers will experience margin pressure if they cannot pass these increases to their customers," it added.

Moody's said the price spike would be "especially painful for US and European steelmakers," who were still emerging from the global downtown.

Long-range forecasts are for further downpours to hit Queensland in coming months due to a strong La Nina weather system, which Moody's said was "the most ominous news of all" for the world's steelmakers.

Heavy rainfall linked to La Nina is already disrupting supplies from Colombia, Venezuela and South Africa of thermal coal, burned to produce electricity.

Newcastle, north of Sydney, is home to the world's largest thermal coal export port, and prices there jumped sharply from $120 per tonne in December to $140 per tonne following the floods.

Impacts will be less pronounced than for coking coal, but Wood Mackenzie said thermal coal prices could jump as high as $197 per tonne.

Resources Minister Martin Ferguson said it was "too early to make an assessment about when we will see our coal corridors back at full capacity," with water only just receding at some sites and the extent of damage unclear.

ANZ Banking Group said the flooded region was losing about Aus$480 million ($474 million) dollars per week in coal export revenues, with the disaster halting the equivalent of 160 million tonnes of annual production.

"This represents the temporary closure of 67 percent of Queensland's total coal production, a staggering 41 percent of the world's export coking coal supply and eight percent of the world's export thermal supply," ANZ said in a client note, warning there was "more to come".

"The rub is that the wet season normally peaks in February/March so risks remain high for an extended delay," it added.

Heavy rains have been forecast to persist into April, with La Nina also increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclones during the period, raising the spectre of more weather disruptions.

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