Led by researchers Xia Li, Yumei Zhang, and Shenggen Fan of China Agricultural University and Issa Ouedraogo of the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, the study emphasizes that Africa's population - projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 - faces a dual challenge: feeding more people while emitting less carbon. Between 2000 and 2021, Africa's agrifood emissions rose 40%, from 2.03 to 2.85 Gt CO2e, largely driven by cropland expansion and livestock growth.
Regional differences define the challenge. In East and Central Africa, deforestation and herd expansion have accelerated emissions, while elsewhere better soil management and limited mechanization have slowed the rise. The Congo Basin, the planet's second-largest tropical forest, remains critical to climate stability, with every hectare conserved serving both livelihoods and carbon sequestration.
The report urges tailored strategies for distinct ecosystems: halting deforestation in forested regions, reducing methane through improved livestock feeding and health in pastoral zones, and adopting water-efficient methods like Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) in rice paddies. Urban supply chains, meanwhile, must modernize logistics to ensure that food produced actually reaches consumers.
Deforestation continues to dominate emissions in several Central and West African nations. Beyond bans, solutions include clarifying land tenure, promoting agroforestry, enforcing zero-deforestation supply chains, and compensating communities for ecosystem services. In rice systems, AWD cuts water use by up to 30% and methane emissions by nearly half without yield loss, while improved livestock forages, minerals, and veterinary care can lower methane intensity and raise productivity.
Beyond the farm, emissions from fertilizers, logistics, and post-harvest losses are rising with urbanization. Producing one tonne of ammonia emits roughly 2.4-2.9 tonnes of CO2; cleaner production methods and precision application can reduce this footprint. Post-harvest losses - up to 30% in some value chains - can be mitigated by solar cold storage, better packaging, and reliable roads. Modernized trucking and rail, optimized routes, and efficient refrigeration can further reduce food transport emissions.
Policy and finance will determine success. Kenya's e-voucher fertilizer program and South Africa's Climate Change Act illustrate emerging leadership. Regionally, the AFR100 initiative - restoring 100 million hectares by 2030 - anchors ecosystem restoration efforts. However, agricultural mitigation and adaptation will require over USD 50 billion annually by 2030, highlighting the need for bankable, scalable projects across value chains.
The study proposes a realistic short-term goal: implementing proven low-carbon practices on 20% of family farms. Scaling requires credit tailored to agricultural cycles, land tenure security, market incentives, and capacity building through field advisers.
The overarching message: food security and climate action can advance together. With coordinated public policy, agronomic innovation, and inclusive value chains, Africa can decouple agricultural growth from emissions and build a resilient, climate-smart food future.
Research Report:Agrifood system carbon emissions and reduction policy: insights from China and Africa
Related Links
International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Farming Today - Suppliers and Technology
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