As the fourth report in this series and the third published as a living data collection in 'Earth System Science Data', the 2024 Global Methane Budget provides a detailed analysis of methane emissions and their impact on climate change. Methane is the second largest contributor to human-induced global warming after carbon dioxide, emphasizing the need for urgent action to reduce emissions.
The study highlights that methane levels in the atmosphere have surged in recent years at an unprecedented rate since measurements began in 1986. These trends are far from the reductions needed to limit global warming to below 2 C and maintain a stable climate.
Methane is 28 times more efficient than carbon dioxide at trapping heat over 100 years and 80 times more effective over 20 years. As of 2023, methane levels in the atmosphere reached 1,923 parts per billion, 2.6 times higher than pre-industrial levels and the highest recorded in at least 800,000 years.
Despite international efforts such as the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30% reduction by 2030, the report warns that current trends are not aligning with these goals. Emissions from fossil fuels, agriculture, and waste continue to increase, suggesting that more must be done to meet climate commitments.
The report's findings indicate that if methane emissions continue at the current pace, the targets of the Global Methane Pledge will not be met. The data align with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) most pessimistic scenarios, which predict global temperatures could exceed 3 C by the end of the century.
Regional Insights
The report breaks down methane emissions by both region and sector, identifying key contributors. In 2022, the top five emitters of human-caused methane were China (16%), India (9%), the USA (7%), Brazil (6%), and Russia (5%). China's coal mining operations and oil and gas extraction in the Middle East are cited as significant contributors.
Europe and Australia, however, have made notable progress in reducing methane emissions over the past 20 years. Globally, agricultural activities remain the largest source of human-related methane emissions, making up 40% of the total. Fossil fuels contribute 34%, while waste management and biomass burning account for 19% and 7%, respectively. The rise in emissions is attributed to expanding activities in developing regions and increased fossil fuel exploitation.
Addressing the Methane Challenge
Tackling the methane issue is vital for achieving global climate goals. With no current technology capable of removing methane from the atmosphere, the report stresses the importance of reducing emissions at their source. Recommendations include leak detection and repair, recovery of vented gas, and improved waste management in the fossil fuel and waste sectors. For agriculture, options like changing livestock feed and better manure management could help reduce emissions.
Satellites provide essential data on methane levels. ESA's satellites were integral in modeling methane emissions, comparing "top-down" estimates from satellite data to "bottom-up" estimates derived from traditional land-based inventories.
ESA's Role in Methane Monitoring and Mitigation
To combat rising methane emissions, the European Space Agency (ESA) is leading multiple initiatives focused on methane monitoring and mitigation. The Copernicus Sentinel-5P satellite, which offers daily global coverage and high-resolution data, played a key role in assessing methane emissions between 2018 and 2023. This satellite data helps pinpoint emission sources and verify the success of mitigation measures.
ESA is also developing a tiered approach to detect methane "super-emitters," combining data from multiple satellites to identify smaller but still significant emission sources. The SMART-CH4 project is using new data products to enhance regional methane budget assessments and improve attribution of trends to specific sectors.
In addition, the upcoming MEDUSA project will work with emerging satellite systems to refine methane emission detection and improve data quality, while the AI4CH4 project, launching in 2025, will use artificial intelligence to enhance detection of methane point sources from satellite imagery.
ESA's Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase 2 (RECCAP-2) project is improving methane budget estimates through regional case studies. The project also explores the role of wetlands and peatlands in methane emissions, aiming to reduce uncertainties in natural methane sources.
The Climate Modelling User Group (CMUG) project is enhancing methane emission models by integrating various climate variables with satellite data. Similarly, the Greenhouse Gases (GHG) project focuses on creating long-term global climate data records for both carbon dioxide and methane using Sentinel-5P and GOSAT satellite data.
Finally, ESA's World Emission project is advancing methane emission estimates through a global online platform. This system provides real-time tracking of emissions and helps policymakers assess the effectiveness of climate mitigation strategies.
Through these projects, ESA is playing a crucial role in improving methane monitoring and supporting global efforts to reduce methane emissions and address climate change.
Research Report:Global Methane Budget Report
Research Report:Human activities now fuel two-thirds of global methane emissions
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