Free Newsletters - Space News - Defense Alert - Environment Report - Energy Monitor
. Space Travel News .




SPACE TRAVEL
How to predict the future of technology
by Staff Writers
Los Angeles CA (SPX) Jan 28, 2013


An example of how the SAW model could have saved a company from decline is Sony's investment in TVs. Sony kept investing in cathode ray tube technology (CRT) even after liquid crystal display technology (LCD) first crossed CRT in performance in 1996. Instead of considering LCD, Sony introduced the FD Trinitron/WEGA series, a flat version of the CRT. CRT out-performed LCD for a few years, but ultimately lost decisively to LCD in 2001. In contrast, by backing LCD, Samsung grew to be the world's largest manufacturer of the better performing LCD. The former market leader, Sony, had to seek a joint venture with Samsung in 2006 to manufacture LCDs.

The bread and butter of investing for Silicon Valley tech companies is stale. Instead, a new method of predicting the evolution of technology could save tech giants millions in research and development or developments of new products-and help analysts and venture capitalists determine which companies are on the right track.

The high-tech industry has long used Moore's Law as a method to predict the growth of PC memory. Moore's Law states that the number of chips on a transistor doubles every 18 months (initially every year).

A paper by Gareth James and Gerard Tellis, professors at the USC Marshall School of Business and their co-authors Ashish Sood, at Emory and Ji Zhu at the University of Michigan, concludes that Moore's Law does not apply for most industries, including the PC industry. The paper titled, "Predicting the Path of Technological Innovation: SAW vs. Moore, Bass, Gompertz, and Kryder," is in the current issue of Marketing Science.

High-tech companies traditionally use Moore's Law and other similar heuristics to predict the path of evolution of competing technologies and to decide where to funnel millions into research and development or new product development. The paper's researchers claim that these models are outdated and inaccurate.

The paper offers a new model, Step and Wait (SAW), which more accurately tracks the path of technological evolution in six markets that the authors tested. According to the researchers, Moore's Law and other models such as Kryder's Law and Gompertz Law predict a smooth increasing exponential curve for the improvement in performance of various technologies.

In contrast, the authors found that the performance of most technologies proceeds in steps (or jumps) of big improvements interspersed with waits (or periods of no growth in performance).

The sweet spot is in knowing which technology to back based on predicting when a new technology is going to have a jump in performance.

"We looked at the forest rather than the trees and see 'steps' and 'waits' across a variety of technologies," Tellis said. While no one law applies to every market, Tellis and his co-authors looked at 26 technologies in six markets from lighting to automobile batteries, and found that the SAW model worked in all six, in contrast to several other competing models.

What Tellis and his colleagues did come up with, are average performance improvements for the industry in terms of "steps" and wait times (see table to the right). The challenge for strategists is to invest in various technologies to beat these averages.

Tellis said that tablet and mobile phone manufacturers can leverage this data.

"Any manager has first to break down his or her products into components, find components for each technology, and then predict the future path of those technologies. For example, the mobile phone consists of three important technological components: memory, display, or CPU, the first two of which the authors analyzed. Similarly, tablets, manufacturers could rely on the figures for display and memory technologies."

An example of how the SAW model could have saved a company from decline is Sony's investment in TVs. Sony kept investing in cathode ray tube technology (CRT) even after liquid crystal display technology (LCD) first crossed CRT in performance in 1996.

Instead of considering LCD, Sony introduced the FD Trinitron/WEGA series, a flat version of the CRT. CRT out-performed LCD for a few years, but ultimately lost decisively to LCD in 2001. In contrast, by backing LCD, Samsung grew to be the world's largest manufacturer of the better performing LCD. The former market leader, Sony, had to seek a joint venture with Samsung in 2006 to manufacture LCDs.

Having the SAW model at the ready might have changed their course. "Prediction of the next step size and wait time using SAW could have helped Sony's managers make a timely investment in LCD technology," according to the study.

.


Related Links
USC Marshall School of Business
Space Tourism, Space Transport and Space Exploration News






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





SPACE TRAVEL
Mathematical breakthrough sets out rules for more effective teleportation
Cambridge, UK (SPX) Jan 17, 2013
For the last ten years, theoretical physicists have shown that the intense connections generated between particles as established in the quantum law of 'entanglement' may hold the key to eventual teleportation of quantum information. Now, for the first time, researchers have worked out how entanglement could be 'recycled' to increase the efficiency of these connections. Published in the jo ... read more


SPACE TRAVEL
First Ariane 5 For 2013 Ready For Loading

Azerspace And Africasat-1a "fit" for Ariane 5 launch

NASA Selects Experimental Commercial Suborbital Flight Payloads

Payload elements come together in Starsem's wrap-up Soyuz mission from Baikonur Cosmodrome for Globalstar

SPACE TRAVEL
Is there life on Mars?

Opportunity At Work At Whitewater Lake

Thawing Dry Ice Drives Groovy Action On Mars

Mars Rover Curiosity Uses Arm Camera at Night

SPACE TRAVEL
US, Europe team up for moon fly-by

Russia to Launch Lunar Mission in 2015

US, Europe team up for moon fly-by

Mission would drag asteroid to the moon

SPACE TRAVEL
The PI's Perspective: The Seven-Year Itch

New Horizons Gets a New Year's Workout

Halfway Between Uranus and Neptune, New Horizons Cruises On

Dwarf planet Makemake lacks atmosphere

SPACE TRAVEL
New Evidence Indicates Auroras Occur Outside Our Solar System

Glitch has space telescope shut down

Earth-size planets common in galaxy

NASA's Hubble Reveals Rogue Planetary Orbit For Fomalhaut B

SPACE TRAVEL
Scientists create tractor beam

Competition for hypersonic vehicles resumes

Aerojet's AJ26 Engine Completes Successful Hot Fire in Support of Antares Rocket

NASA Engineers Resurrect And Test Mighty F-1 Engine Gas Generator

SPACE TRAVEL
Reshuffle for Tiangong

China to launch 20 spacecrafts in 2013

Mr Xi in Space

China plans manned space launch in 2013: state media

SPACE TRAVEL
Commercial Asteroid Hunters Announce Plans For New Robotic Exploration Fleet

US company aims to 'harvest' asteroids

Comet of the Century?

Herschel intercepts asteroid Apophis




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement