Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Space Travel News .




DEMOCRACY
2012 US election a 'Moneyball' win for geeks
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Nov 7, 2012


Nate Silver's model correctly predicted the presidential outcome in 49 states, and will be correct in all 50 if Obama's lead holds in Florida.

It was not just a victory for President Barack Obama, it was validation for the number-crunchers and statistical model geeks, including a New York Times blogger who became a target for conservatives.

Tuesday's election made a star out of Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight blog for the US daily tracked the president's statistical odds and on election day offered a 90.9 percent probability of an Obama win.

Silver's model correctly predicted the presidential outcome in 49 states, and will be correct in all 50 if Obama's lead holds in Florida.

"Here is the absolute, undoubted winner of this election: Nate Silver and big data," said Chris Taylor in an opinion column on the website Mashable.

"What does this victory mean? That mathematical models can no longer be derided by 'gut-feeling' pundits. That Silver's contention -- TV pundits are generally no more accurate than a coin toss -- must now be given wider credence."

It was a similar result for three other models, including from Princeton University neuroscientist Sam Wang, Stanford's Simon Jackman and Emory University's Drew Linzer.

The results evoked the popular book and film starring Brad Pitt "Moneyball," which showed how statistical models can help win in baseball.

Obama's victory "is also a victory for the Moneyball approach to politics," said John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University.

"It shows us that we can use systematic data -- economic data, polling data -- to separate momentum from no-mentum, to dispense with the gaseous emanations of pundits' 'guts,' and ultimately to forecast the winner," he said in a blog post.

In the weeks leading up to the election, Silver -- whose FiveThirtyEight blog is named geekily after the number of electoral college votes up for grabs -- and others had been pilloried by conservative commentators.

"The mainstream media-commissioned polls have been far more skewed this election season than most in the past," said conservative analyst Dean Chambers on September 26, as he predicted a win for Republican Mitt Romney.

Chambers, seen as the head of the so-called "unskewed movement," on Monday predicted a narrow Romney win in electoral votes.

Conservative consultant Dick Morris had argued that the polls "understate" the number of people who favored Romney, and ahead of the election predicted a "landslide" for the Republican.

"All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin," Morris said in September.

On Wednesday, Morris acknowledged he was wrong: "I've got egg on my face," he said, arguing that the impact of superstorm Sandy "stopped Romney's post-debate momentum."

The predictions from Silver and other analysts -- who for the technically literate use techniques known as quantitative forecasting or Bayesian analysis, named for mathematician Thomas Bayes -- drew wide audiences during the campaign, and prompted many to place bets on accuracy.

Former Republican congressman called Silver an "ideologue" on MSNBC and bet Silver $1,000 on the race.

Princeton's Wang said he would "eat a bug" if Romney won Ohio, and expressed relief on Wednesday after the results.

Wang had accurately predicted 49 states and called Florida "a tossup." He had on Tuesday given a 99.2 percent probability of Obama's re-election.

The popular vote total giving Obama a slight edge "exactly matches my prediction," Wang said. "Bottom line: I will not have to eat a bug."

Yet some said the four predictions were simply aggregations of individual polls, and cautioned against giving too much credit to the aggregators.

George Washington University political scientist Henry Farrell said the popularity of these systems might lead to "less incentive to produce these individual polls" and make the predictions less accurate.

"The models might, over the longer term, drive the individual polls out of the market, cannibalizing the conditions of their own existence unless someone figures out a new business model," Farrell said.

.


Related Links
Democracy in the 21st century at TerraDaily.com






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








DEMOCRACY
Eight in 10 Chinese want political reform: survey
Beijing (AFP) Nov 7, 2012
Eight out of 10 Chinese want political reform, according to a survey published Wednesday by a state-run newspaper, adding to growing calls for change on the eve of a once-in-a-decade leadership transition. The poll published by the Global Times newspaper found that 81 percent of people in seven major cities said they supported political reform, with 66 percent feeling the government should ... read more


DEMOCRACY
Russian Proton Briz-M Launches Yamal Satellites Into Orbit

SpaceX Transitions to Third Commercial Crew Phase with NASA

Globalstar Birds To Launch On Soyuz Next February

Ariane 5s are readied in parallel for Arianespace's next heavy-lift flights

DEMOCRACY
Curiosity Team Switches Back to Earth Time

Survey of 'Matijevic Hill' Continues

Mars Longevity Champ Switching Computers

NASA Rover Finds Clues to Changes in Mars' Atmosphere

DEMOCRACY
Moon crater yields impact clues

Study: Moon basin formed by giant impact

NASA's LADEE Spacecraft Gets Final Science Instrument Installed

Astrium presents results of its study into automatic landing near the Moon's south pole

DEMOCRACY
Keck Observations Bring Weather Of Uranus Into Sharp Focus

At Pluto, Moons and Debris May Be Hazardous to New Horizons Spacecraft During Flyby

Sharpest-ever Ground-based Images of Pluto and Charon: Proves a Powerful Tool for Exoplanet Discoveries

The Kuiper Belt at 20: Paradigm Changes in Our Knowledge of the Solar System

DEMOCRACY
Physicists confirm first planet discovered in a quadruple star system

Planet-hunt data released to public

New Study Brings a Doubted Exoplanet 'Back from the Dead'

New small satellite will study super-Earths for ESA

DEMOCRACY
NASA's Space Launch System Using Futuristic Technology to Build the Next Generation of Rockets

NASA Seeks Options for SLS Cargo Payload Fairings and Adapters

SLS Industry Day at Michoud Assembly Facility

Orbiting Gas Stations for Satellites

DEMOCRACY
Tiangong 1 Parked And Waiting As Shenzhou 10 Mission Prep Continues

China to launch 11 meteorological satellites by 2020

China makes progress in spaceflight research

Patience for Tiangong

DEMOCRACY
NASA Radar Images Asteroid 2007 PA8

Ball Aerospace/B612 Foundation Sign Contract for Sentinel Mission

Scientists Monitor Comet Breakup

Protoplanet Vesta: Forever young?




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement